OffStumped For All Things Right of Center, Bringing a Right of Centre Reality Check to Indian Politics, News Media Reporting and Opinion now in Hindi अब आप के लिये हिंदी मे.

Samajwadi Party and BSP appeared to be in a neck and neck race in Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections with an exit poll after Friday’s second phase of polling in 58 seats. The exit poll on NDTV gave BJP 95 to 105 seats and 35 to 45 seats to Congress. Among the 58 constituencies that went to polls on Friday , SP was given eight to ten seats, BSP 14 to 16, BJP 18 to 20, Congress six to eight and RLD seven to nine, showing that the state was heading for a three-way split among SP, BSP and BJP, which showed some improvement in the second phase. The survey, carried out among 18,378 people across 29 constituencies, showed RLD Chief Ajit Singh holding on in the Jat land.

As before Offstumped has come up with its own analysis. Given the low to moderate 46% turnout in the second phase, the outcome will be tough to predict. Based on Offstumped’s analysis the key highlights for this phase are:

– Further evidence of Mulayam defecting key incumbents

– This phase by and large marks the dramatic rise of the BSP, which interestingly is not at the expense of the BJP

– This phase is also has the most diverse seat split with the Congress and RLD expected to register their presence.

– Another interesting observation a significant number of seats with a very high turnout historically, remains to be seen how voter apathy affects the outcome this time around.

As before take these predictions with a pinch of salt.

346 Goverdhan SC  – moderate to high turnouts, was reliably BJP but turned battleground with BSP and SP gaining ground, defection of former incumbent from BJP to BSP, defection of current incumbent from BJP to SP, this is a tossup
 347 Mathura GEN –  urban seat low to moderate turnouts, was reliably BJP, reasonable margins, was a surprise congress win in 2002, rld and large number of independents this time, sp has a Brahmin candidate as well, will likely go  BJP this time if turnout is higher
348 Chhata GEN – high turnouts, has bounced all over political spectrum, incumbent RLD, BSP has ensnared former runner up, likely BSP given the backlash against RLD
349 Mat GEN  – high turnouts, reliably voted for local strong man, likely go to other parties
350 Gokul GEN – moderate to high turnouts, bounced around the political spectrum, unpredictable seat has voted out incumbents with wide margins could go BSP this time
351 Sadabad GEN – high turnouts, battleground seat less than 1% margin, bsp Brahmin candidate, lot of defections, tossup likely congress with a very small margin
352 Hathras GEN  – high turnouts, incumbent brahmin bsp, few candidates winning by >50% vote share, should stay BSP unless low turnout makes it unpredictable
353 Sasni SC – moderate to high turnouts, reliably BJP despite former BJP man defecting to congress, will likely stay BJP
354 Sikandara Rao – very high turnouts, has voted out incumbents reliably with reasonable margins, incumbent defected to BSP, likely go to BSP
355 Gangiri GEN – very high turnouts, has voted out incumbents consistently with wide margins, BSP has put up muslim candidate likely go to BSP
356 Atrauli GEN –,very high turnouts, kalyan singh’s stronghold, his daughter-in-law is contesting, will stay BJP
357 Aligarh GEN – historicallty high to very high turnouts favored bjp, surprise congress win in 2002 when turnout was very low high turnout will favor BJP otherwise tossup
358 Koil SC – moderate to high turnouts was bjp in the past, since switched to BSP, likely stay BSP
359 Iglas GEN – highest turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents, Brahmin bsp incumbent likely stay BSP unless turnout is low
360 Barauli GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents, BSP seems to have appropriate Congress vote base here, will likely stay BSP
361 Khair Gen – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents, BSP has gained over the years, last election was a tossup with

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