by Craig Dimitri

Of the 33 seats up this cycle, there are only eight – the “Big Eight”, currently in significant likelihood of changing party control.  Six are incumbent Republicans, one is a currently GOP open-seat, one is an incumbent Democrat.   Democrats must make a net gain of six seats to take control, 51-49.

Regarding the lone Democratic seat in play, Rasmussen Reports – a highly respected independent pollster, released a poll on Saturday, October 28, showing a dead heat in New Jersey.  In the Garden State, incumbent Bob Menendez is locked in a 45%-45% dead heat with Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr.   The poll was taken on Wednesday, October 25.

This result is particularly surprising, for a unique reason. The same poll asked New Jerseyans which party they would prefer to be in control – and they overwhelmingly answered “Democrats”, by an astounding 18 percentage points (54%-36%).  But in the only opportunity that those voters would have to create a Democratic Senate, they are equally divided between Menendez and Kean.

Why?  Of the voters who stated that they prefer a Democratic Senate, just 74% said that they would vote for Menendez.

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at


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