by Craig Dimitri

The Va.-2 CD is yet another red-state district, that ought to be solidly in the GOP column.  But the freshman Republican representing Va.-2 CD will face an anxious Tuesday.  Rep. Thelma Drake is running for re-election for the first time, and is facing challenger Phil Kellam (D), a Virginia Beach Commissioner. 

By any standard, this should be a safe Republican district.  George W. Bush carried this Virginia coastal district easily in 2004, crushing John F. Kerry by 16%.  That same year, Drake had no trouble winning the open seat, triumphing with 55% over her Democratic opponent.

But Drake faces a rough road to re-election, even on GOP turf.  Two prominent polls, using different methodologies, have reached different conclusions about the contest.  Reuters-Zogby, relying on live phone calls, surveyed Va.-2 and called the contest at 51% for Drake, 43% for Kellam.  But MajorityWatch, using recorded phone calls, drew the opposite conclusion: 50% Kellam, 43% Drake. 

This poll, conducted Oct. 24-26, was the third round of polling in this district for MajorityWatch.  The second round, from Oct. 8-10, had Drake up 49%-45%, just outside the survey’s 3.1% margin of error.  The first round, during August 27-29, the results were reversed, once more: Kellam 51%, Drake 43%.  So the same poll has shown Kellam up by eight, down by four, and then up by seven (currently.)

Stay tuned.

Drake official campaign site –

Kellam official campaign site – 

Zogby poll –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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