by Craig Dimitri

The Pa. 8th CD race continues its volatility.  On Monday, October 30, another independent poll (Muhlenberg College/Morning Call newspaper) showed freshman Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) with a small 46%-40% lead over challenger Patrick Murphy (D).  This is in marked contrast to another recent independent poll – MajorityWatch.  On Monday, that poll had shown Murphy up by 50%-47%, with a 3.1% margin of error.

The Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll has a larger margin of error than the MajorityWatch one did: it sampled 421 likely voters with a 4.9% margin of error.  However, Fitzpatrick’s six-point lead falls beyond that, so the poll concludes that Fitzpatrick( is ahead of Murphy (

For its part, the Murphy campaign on Wednesday released another internal Democratic poll from Global Strategy, which it claimed demonstrated that Murphy was still ahead.  The Global Strategy poll, according to the campaign, showed Murphy with a 50%-47% lead with a 4.9% margin of error.  However, as an internal poll, it cannot be considered reliable.

Independent Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll:,0,3841687.story

Murphy’s internal Democratic poll 

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