by Craig Dimitri

It appears that a Republican incumbent is on the way out in the New York 29th CD, where freshman John “Randy” Kuhl trails his Democratic challenger, Eric Massa, by 11% down the stretch.  The most recent poll conducted by MajorityWatch shows Massa with a 53%-42% lead over the Republican. 

This is a highly independent district – it self-identifies as 42% Republican – 30% Democrat – 28% independent.  President George W. Bush has an extremely low approval rating in the district, just 31%, with 61% disapproval – and is likely the main reason why Massa has such a large lead.  Ironically, this was a great district for Bush in 2004 – he carried it by a wide 56%-42% margin over John F. Kerry, despite badly losing statewide, since New York is one of the bluest states. 

MajorityWatch conducted its poll from Oct. 24-26, with 1,004 likely voters, giving it a margin of error of 3.09%.  Massa’s lead of 11% was well beyond the margin of error – and with Kuhl running in just his first re-election effort, it seems unlikely that he has built up sufficient groundwork with voters, that he can turn it around so late. 

Moreover, this poll is virtually identical to MajorityWatch’s previous poll in this district.  The earlier poll, conducted from Oct. 15-16, with 1,006 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.07%, showed Massa with a 52%-40% lead.  That poll from two weeks ago, yielded results virtually identical to the current 53%-42% advantage for Massa. 

Kuhl official campaign site –

Massa official campaign site –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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