by Craig Dimitri  

Republicans badly, badly, badly need for six-term incumbent Rep. Sue Kelly (R) to survive in this affluent district in the Hudson River Valley.  It was one of the few NY districts to vote heavily for George W. Bush in 2004, and did so by 9%, 54%-45%.  But Kelly is in a battle with challenger John Hall (D), in a district that the GOP absolutely must retain in order to keep control in the House.  Ironically, Kelly was one of the 73 freshmen members that swept the Democrats out of power back in 1994.  And if she can hang on, her seat might very well be the one that keeps the GOP in power for another two years.

This is another district where national Republicans probably did not anticipate a difficult race, and not primarily because of Bush’s strong showing here in 2004.   In this district (which is comprised of Dutchess, Rockland, Westchester, Putnam and Orange Counties), over the past two cycles, Kelly was re-elected in landslides, cruising past her Democratic challengers with 67% of the vote in 2004 and 70% in 2002.

The two halves of the district tell the story.  Kelly still has a healthy lead in the western half, topping Hall by 8% there; the reverse is true in the eastern half, where Hall has an identical 8% edge.  The MajorityWatch poll was taken from October 24-26, with 944 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.18%.  Hall leads just 49%-47%, making the race a statistical tie, and it will be one of the most important nationally on Election Night.

Kelly official campaign site –

Hall official campaign site –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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