by Craig Dimitri
Democrats have a shot to blast out of Congress, one of the most entrenched GOP incumbents in the nation – nine-term Rep. Jim Walsh, in Central New York. In 2002, he won re-election with 72% of the vote. And he improved upon those numbers in 2004.  Walsh defeated his hapless Democratic challenger in 2004, 91%-9%. But even with such enormous past popularity, it appears his 18-year stay in DC might be over. Dan Maffei (D) leads him by nine percentage points, in a recent independent poll by MajorityWatch.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 24-26, among 1,020 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.06%. It shows Maffei with a 53%-44% lead, with only 3% undecided. Moreover, it appears that Maffei has actually increased his lead since mid-October, as measured by an earlier MajorityWatch poll, taken Oct. 15-16. In that previous poll, Maffei led 51%-43%, with 7% undecided. Clearly, the undecideds have broken for Maffei, previously an aide to former Sens. Daniel Patrick Moynihan (D., N.Y) and Bill Bradley (D., N.J.)
This is a district where it appears that the unpopularity of President George W. Bush may be an important factor in the outcome. Bush’s popularity in the NY-25th CD is even lower than the national average: only 29% of the voters approve of his performance. He narrowly lost this district to John F. Kerry in 2004, 50%-48%.
Walsh and Maffei are in a statistical tie in the western half of the district, which contains four upstate counties. But Maffei has a commanding double-digit lead in the eastern half, which contains Syracuse.Â
Walsh official campaign site – http://www.jimwalshforcongress2006.com/
Maffei official campaign site – http://www.maffeiforcongress.com/
MajorityWatch poll – http://www.majoritywatch.com/
Questions? Comments? Information? You can contact Craig Dimitri at cdimitri1@yahoo.com.Â
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