by Craig Dimitri

In New Hampshire, six-term incumbent Charlie Bass (R) is in a difficult race, against his 2004 opponent, Paul Hodes (D).  That in and of itself, would not be unusual for a Northeast Republican this year.  But what IS unusual, is that Bass crushed this same opponent – Hodes – by 20% (!) two years ago.  Now he’s in a death struggle with him.  The most recent MajorityWatch poll, an independent survey, shows Bass in a statistical tie with Hodes.

The poll was conducted from Oct. 24-26, among 988 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.11%.  It shows Hodes with a 50%-47% lead, with only 3% undecided.  However, Hodes’s lead falls within the margin of error, and therefore the race is too close to call.

Bass had a safe seat until this year, handily winning re-election over Hodes in 2004 by a 58%-38% margin, even while John F. Kerry was carrying the district, 52%-47%.  In 2002, Bass did almost as well, winning 56%-40%.  But as with all Northeast Republicans this year, even those with previously safe seats like Bass, there is trouble coming on Election Day.  In traditional New Hampshire fashion, Granite State voters are far more independent than national voters.  In this district, voters that self-identify as independents are more numerous (43%) than those who affiliate with Republicans (30%) or Democrats (27%).

Obviously,this district – a six-term incumbent seeking re-election, against the same opponent that he crushed by 20%, just two years ago – is another race the GOP must absolutely win to have any hope of retaining control of the House.

Bass official campaign site –

Hodes official campaign site –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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