by Craig Dimitri
Democrats continue to advance upon previously safe GOP seats: the IL-10th CD is a quintessential example. Three-term Rep. Mark Kirk won his first re-election in 2002 with 69%, and his second re-election in 2004 with 64%, even while John F. Kerry was carrying the district with 53% of the vote. But now, Kirk is in a pitched battle with former Clinton administration official Dan Seals (D).
One could be forgiven, for deeming Kirk to be a solid, safe Republican seat. He outran George W. Bush by 18% in 2004, so the President’s low popularity in the Chicago area, wouldn’t seem to put Kirk at all that much risk. But it has. The latest MajorityWatch poll was taken from October 24-26, with 1,008 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.08%. It shows Seals with a narrow 48%-46% lead, within the margin of error and thus a statistical tie. In MajorityWatch’s previous survey, conducted from Oct. 15-16, it was a two-point lead for Kirk, 46%-44%, also within the margin of error.
Why is Kirk in such a battle? Bush. Kerry carried this district in 2004, and Bush’s approval rating in the district is below the national average.  In the first poll, Bush’s approval/disapproval ratings were 26%/65%; in the most recent poll, they improved slightly, but remain abysmal: 29%/63%.
Seals official campaign site – http://www.dansealsforcongress.com/
Kirk official campaign site – http://www.kirkforcongress.com/
MajorityWatch poll – http://www.majoritywatch.com/
Questions? Comments? Information? You can contact Craig Dimitri at cdimitri1@yahoo.com.Â
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