by Craig Dimitri

Another long-time incumbent Republican is in trouble.  Democrats have three GOP incumbents in Connecticut as targets – and they are well on their way to nailing one of them.  The independent MajorityWatch poll, in a recent survey, shows challenger Chris Murphy (D) with a sizable 8% lead over long-term incumbent U.S. Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) in the Connecticut 5th CD – a margin of 51%-43%, with a 3.1% margin of error, among 994 likely voters.  The poll was taken October 24-26.

Of particular interest in this campaign, is the fact that Murphy has gained so much ground in less than a month.  Earlier, from October 8-10, MajorityWatch had polled this district, and in that poll, determined that Johnson was ahead 52%-46%, likewise with a 3.1% margin of error, among 996 likely voters.  Even accounting for the margins of error, it was clear that Johnson’s early October lead was outside of the margin of error- just as Murphy’s current lead falls outside of it.  If these polls are accurate, it would appear that the Democrats may gain this seat, among the most critical in the battle for control of the House.  It is remarkable, because Johnson had a very easy re-election in 2004 – she won with 60% of the vote, against 38% for her Democratic challenger.

Johnson campaign site –

Murphy campaign site –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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