by Craig Dimitri

U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is seeking a fourth term in the House.  But Democratic challenger Joe Courtney – who lost to Simmons in 2002 – has battled Simmons all the way, and the race remains too close to call as we enter the final week.  Three independent polls have recently disagreed – one putting Simmons ahead, one placing Courtney in the lead, and one saying it’s too close to call…

Research 2000, in a cooperative effort with The Day newspaper, was the most recent.  Its poll, which concluded on Oct. 30, sampled 600 likely voters by phone.  It concluded that the campaign was a statistical tie: 48% for Simmons, 47% Courtney, well within the margin of error.

Reuters/Zogby, which concluded its poll of 500 likely voters a day earlier, showed Simmons with a 47%-42% advantage, showing the incumbent with a lead beyond the margin of error.

But MajorityWatch, which concluded its poll of 947 likely voters on October 26, gave Courtney a lead outside the margin of error (one which was smaller, just 3.18%, given the larger sample size.)  MajorityWatch pegged the contest at Courtney 51%, Simmons 45%, well beyond the margin of error.  It uses recorded phone calls to survey, unlike the first two polls, which used live callers.  One silver lining for Simmons, per this poll: it was the earliest of the three polls, and there may have been some voter movement since then.

Simmons official campaign site –

Courtney official campaign site –

Reuters-Zogby poll –

MajorityWatch poll –

Questions?  Comments?  Information?  You can contact Craig Dimitri at 

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