In light of the torrent of bad news on the U.S. House side, it appears that the GOP has a strong chance of retaining its majority in the Senate. Democrats would need to win nearly every close race in order to take control, according to the latest round of polling.
The most recent polls, from MSNBC/McClatchy, Congressional Quarterly and other sources, draw the following conclusions:

Of the 33 seats up this cycle, there are only eight, which are currently in significant likelihood of changing party control. Six belong to Republican incumbents, one is a Tennessee open seat held by retiring Republican Bill Frist, and the lone Democratic seat is the New Jersey seat held by incumbent Robert Menendez.

Although seven of the eight vulnerable seats are Republican, Democrats must win at least seven of them to take outright control. Democrats are only guaranteed to pick up seats in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and they enjoy just a small lead in Rhode Island. If they only win six, there would likely be a revival of the power-sharing agreement that governed the Senate for the first few months of 2001, when there was a 50-50 split, with Vice President Dick Cheney casting a tie-breaker in favor of the GOP.

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