In their latest in a series of hypothetical match ups between 2008 Democratic and Republican candidates, Rasmussen Reports recently conducted a survey that matched up Republican Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and Democratic frontrunners Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL). When matched up with Clinton, Paul trails by fifteen points, 49%-34%. Among his fellow Republicans, Paul only gets 65% of their support versus Clinton. Even though Paul’s anti-war stance and anti-interventionist foreign policy appeal to some on the Left, he attracts only 13% of Democrats and 11% of liberals.
As might be expected, Dr. Paul fares even worse with Obama than he does with Clinton. Paul trails Obama in the poll by twenty points, 50%-30%. Obama manages to pull even more support from Paul among Republicans than Clinton. Only 55% of the Republicans surveyed said that they would support Paul in a match up with Obama. Interestingly, Paul attracts slightly more Democratic support (15%), but less liberal support, (11%) against Obama. Also, Paul is viewed favorably by only 20% of those surveyed. 38% of those asked had an unfavorable view, and 43% were not sure. There are two ways these numbers can be interpreted. Either Paul isn’t popular among voters, or to me a more likely explanation is that he is not well enough known for voters to have an opinion.
The problem for the Paul campaign is that he attracts the least amount of support against the two top Democratic candidates than any other Republican. For example, Mitt Romney attracts 42% support against Clinton and 38% against Obama. Mike Huckabee attracts 43% support against Clinton and 32% against Obama. Even Sam Brownback gets 41% support against Clinton and 34% against Obama. It is isn’t shocking that all the Republicans run better against the polarizing Clinton than they do against Obama, but with the Republican establishment treating Rep. Paul’s candidacy like the black sheep of the party, it is no surprise that he polls this poorly. The Paul campaign is one of the outsiders in a process that, even more so in 2008, rewards insider status and money.
Jason Easley is the editor of the politics zone at 411mania.com. Â His news column The Political Universe appears on Tuesdays and Fridays at www.411mania.com/politics
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17 users commented in " Poll Update: Ron Paul attracts limited support in match ups against Clinton and Obama "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackOk, Ron Paul does great considering the amount of press coverage he’s gotten. Where are the articles that show his leading the support in the form of donation from people who work in the military? USA Today did a story on Barack Obama back in February about his YouTube popularity. Ron Paul has more than 2x the subscribers than Barack today. Where’s the story on that? Ron Paul excluded from a presidential tax forum in Iowa holds his own Life and Liberty Rally on the same day, in the same hall, in the next room, and outdraws 6 other presidential candidates by 400 people with over a 1000 at the Rally. Where were the cameras then? Ron Paul, resoundingly wins all three Republican debates online and gets accused of having spammers…spammers who sent him $2.4 million SPAM dollars in the first quarter of his rise to fame. This survey was intentionally set-up to discredit Ron Paul’s campaign. It’s stupid in today’s day and age to think that a candidate of Dr. Paul’s caliber, that has ALWAYS voted against the Iraq War, would not fare better against a democrat. It’s funny how they always try to print something to discredit him, when his campaign keeps getting bigger, and BIGGER, and B-I-G-G-E-R! See the media bias at http://www.IHateRonPaul.com – “…they hate us for our FREEDOMS!”
I’m not sure what poll this writer is referring to. The only poll I’ve seen online with Ron Paul vs Hillary Clinton one on one (which was run by a Democrat by the way), Ron Paul had approximately 95% of the votes against Hillary Clinton’s 5%. This obviously infuriated the Democrats, given their negative comments about the poll. Maybe it was spammng, whatever that means. If you do know what it means, please let me know. Anyway, the comments made me laugh. It was painfully obvious to any Democrat voting for Hillary Clinton, that the poll backfired. But nice try. However, it is nice that the writer at least acknowledes Ron Paul as a top tier candidate, focusing on him instead of the other Republican candidates. At any rate, the only votes we have to make sure are accurate are the ones that matter, the ones for the real elections.
Hah! Several people have posted this as if it was bad news. Paul getting 34% against Hillary’s 49% is INCREDIBLE for how much press he has(n’t) gotten, and is especially fabulous for how hard the GOP leadership has tried to lop of his legs.
I’m not saying this isn’t very interesting, but I think this is also GOOD news that he’s doing so well in spite of such a GIANT percentage of “not sure what to think” at 43% or whatever. That’s almost HALF.
As has already been mentioned, since Obama and Clinton permeate the airwaves and tube concerning everything politics and they both have aired a trillion commercials to multiply the images seen and heard, it’s a no-contest win for Ron Paul if he gets equal time…period.
No one who has heard RP speak thinks Clinton or Obama (or any other BS-as-usual Pol) would stand a chance against him.
Raise the income tax or Eliminate the income tax?
Protracted War or No War?
MORE Government or LESS Government?
Deficits or a Balanced Budget?
North American Union or United States of America?
USA Patriot Act or the Bill of Rights?
The most Porous Borders on Earth or Secure Borders?
Government run Health Care or Free Market Health Care?
Vitamins Illegal or Vitamins Legal?
Inflation or Sound Money?
Like I said…it would be a November Massacre.
‘Scientific Polls’ at this stage only measure name recognition. Over the next six months Ron Paul will gain name recognition and people will learn about who Ron Paul is. Most people who learn about Ron Paul become major supporters.
Ron Paul is 1st in YouTube, Meetup, MySpace, Facebook, Technorati, Alexa, Google, etc. The old media is just too slow to realize what is happening.
Ron Paul places 1st or 2nd in every straw poll, debate, and active participation survey.
Ron Paul has the most contributions from U.S. military personnel above all other candidates. So support the troops and vote Ron Paul!
Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton were doing about the same in the ‘Scientific Polls’ at this stage in their elections. Ron Paul has tremendous momentum and his support is growing exponentially. The other candidates are stagnant. Only Ron Paul’s support is growing and will continue to grow!
Ron Paul is the man of integrity and courage that America needs at this time.
“Always vote for principle, though you may vote alone, and you may cherish the sweetest reflection that your vote is never lost.” John Quincy Adams
We are making history – Vote Ron Paul!
Visit YouTube and search Ron Paul to learn more…
Someone should do the poll of Clinton vs John Robertson and Obama vs John Robertson. John Robertson of course does not exist. People didn’t pick Paul because they don’t know who he is. I bet John Robertson would do even worse. With a few million dollars, people will eventually know who Paul is. Hopefully they will learn enough about him to give him a fair shake.
Being that Ron Paul has been snubbed in the ‘main stream’ media and has very little name recognition (or so you would think), this is rather incredible. The thing is, most people have not heard his message yet, but they are slowly but surely being exposed to that message as the debates go on. As more hear his message his support grows, and grows quickly. As people get interested and look up the man’s history and most importantly his principled voting record they become impressed. And then they get active… Ron Paul does not have bazillions of dollars backing him, he has people, real people, excited people, real excited people….
As people get to know the man the revolution grows. This is not to be ignored any longer. We are a few straw polls away from a huge sweep by an underdog candidate who truly represents the interests of the people. Or…. we are screwed for eternity….
Ok folks, now is the time. Get out your wallet, right now, send a check. Go outside right now, knock on your neighbors doors, tell them their vote really DOES count THIS time. This may be the LAST time your vote really means anything!
Ron Paul 2008!
I keep seeing the stats from these polls re-blogged. I’m in that camp that thinks it’s quite amazing that Ron Paul places as well as he does in these match ups, considering the mainstream media blackout on him. I mean everyone in the world has known who Hillary is for quite some time. Ron Paul is just starting to become known by many people. Imagine how he would do in this poll had the media been fawning all over him as they have with the “top tier” candidates.
I find it quite telling that Ron Paul only places with 1 – 3% in the “scientific” Republican polls that the pundits tout, yet he manages 34% to Hillary’s 49% in this poll. And sure Mitt does better in this one. He’s spent millions and millions of dollars so far, and gets all sorts of press. If Ron Paul received only one half of the press from the MSM that Mitt gets, he would blow the whole lot out of the water. Last I looked, Ron Paul had only spent something like $660,000 on his campaign. The man knows how to manage money! Another interesting fact, had Mitt not loaned his campaign another $9 mill, he, like McCain would have had less cash on hand than Ron Paul in Q2.
I concur that this is good news for Paul, none of the apathetic really know who he is, once they hear his message they will join his campaign, not just vote for him. The fact that he gets those percentages off the bat is excellent.
So far the other Republicans may be polling higher than Paul, but I think the #1 issue that the country is concerned with is the war (it is certainly in the top 3 for me). That is why I think Bush’s approval rating is so low. Anyways, if that is the case, Paul with his get-us-out-immediately message is the *only* Republican who has a chance of winning against a Democrat.
Paul fans – Please consider signing the pledge at http://www.pledgebank.com/RonPaul
The pledge is “I will donate $500 to http://www.ronpaul2008.com but only if 20,000 other people will do the same.”
$10 million should knock him into 1st-tier status!
Whoever gets the Democratic nod will loose hands down in a one-on-one debate with Dr. Paul.
Can’t wait for that to happen!
Dr. Paul was basically an unknown as of March and already he’s competing (at least according to the polls sited in this article) quite well against Hillary and Obama! I can’t wait until this time next year. The Ron Paul Revolution is just getting started and the Hillarys and Rudys can’t hide forever. Their globalist police state agenda is finally being exposed and Dr. Paul is the man to get this country headed back to the fundamentals of individual freedom and liberty. For a man who is 71 years old, time is definately on his side! Thanks.
The election is more than a year away; these number will be long forgotten by then. They simply do not matter today, except to suggest that Ron Paul’s appeal and momentum has done very well in recent weeks.
What Jason does not mention, of course, is the reason that Dr. Paul has gained popularity: it is his messages: to end the war ASAP, to recall the soldiers, to restore the Constitution as the rule of law, to abolish most intrusive agencies and protect the rights of the individual. I don’t hear any body else saying those things.
Another thought: Lets see how these match-ups look AFTER Ron Paul has had a chance to debate Hillary and Obama!
Think about it. Compare Paul’s record on the war and the Patriot Act to Hillary’s, and BOOM…she’s out. Allow Paul to explain to the freshman Obama that all of his various plans are fiscally unsound, and BOOM…he’s out.
Ron Paul can take down any of the other Rep candidates with ease; the Dem “first tier” would be child’s play. I am certain that all of the Dem “first tier” are dreading such an encounter.
Ron Paul challenged Rudy G. to a debate on foreign policy. Rudy G. never responded. A good strategist knows to avoid a head-on conflict with a superior force. Think about it…
This is one of the first polls to be done by a outside organization that looks at Ron Paul. The poll was a telephone survey of over 1,100 likely voters.
There are two conclusions that I take from this poll.
1). Any Republican has a built in base of support of 30%-35% nationally. That is the baseline.
2). Nobody knows who Ron Paul is. (I don’t think people will get the chance either. The mainstream Republican Party is probably going to start excluding candidates from the debates by the end of the year).
Considering the near total blackout in the mainstream press about Ron Paul, I find this incredibly encouraging. It shows the Internet is really working. Most people don’t know a thing about Ron Paul’s platforms and if they did, they would run to support him. Do you know that he was one of only three to vote against the Sarbanes Oxley act? Read this: http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/haman2.html very informative. He is also trying right now to get an act passed that would stop the FDA from keeping health news from the public. Currently it is against the law for a supplement company to advertise a true claim. Did you know that? Read this: http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul400.html
So in just two sentences I have shown how this man wants to help the small business owner not get killed by regulations, help the economy pick up, help capital to be spread around and make this country productive and help us all get away from pharmaceutical company dependence. He also wants to end the war, save lives by doing so, and get us away from monetary inflation. The man is a bloody hero!!!
But no one knows about him. Yet. The Ron Paul Revolution is just beginning. Those of us informed are working our hearts for this man who WILL save this country. He is the exact opposite of all that is wrong these days.
What this really says is the better known Republican candidates would all lose against either Hillary or Obama. Paul has the most to gain as voters are just starting to learn about him.
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