The back and forth battle for the Republican nomination between Fred Thompson and Rudy Giuliani continued in this week’s Rasmussen Reports poll update. The former New York City mayor has opened up a five point lead on the still undeclared Thompson, but when the margin of error of four points is factored into the poll, Giuliani has a razor thin one point lead. After reaching 28% on June 19, it appears that Thompson’s momentum has cooled. Since May 8, Giuliani has hovered at 24%-27%. He has reached 27% twice during this span, but he also hit lows of 21% and 23% over this same period. Giuliani hasn’t been at 30% or higher in 15 weeks, but Thompson has yet to break the 30% barrier in any week.
The closest he came was in late June and early July when he registered weeks of 28%, then back to back 27%’s. Thompson’s standing has dropped for four consecutive weeks, and this week’s 22% marks his worst showing since June 5. Among the other candidates, Mitt Romney remained at 14% for the second straight week. Romney has spent the last eight weeks stuck at 12%-14%. It remains to be seen if his straw poll victory will boost his support. John McCain stayed in fourth at 10% this week. This marks the tenth straight week that McCain has been at 10%-12%. This week’s showing equaled McCain’s low point which he matched on June 19.
It will probably take a few week’s to see if Mike Huckabee’s second place finish in the Iowa straw poll boosts him to the top tier. For this week, Huckabee remained at 4%. Five other candidates, Sam Brownback, Ron Paul, Duncan Hunter, Tom Tancredo, and Tommy Thompson, split 5% of the vote, and 19% remained undecided. Even though the Huckabee camp is trying to sell their guy as a top tier candidate, he isn’t just yet. In my estimation, he gained more media attention for finishing second than Romney did for winning the Iowa straw poll. If he can translate that media attention into support, Huckabee could be a real contender. He has the message, background, and personality to be a serious option for GOP voters. His problem has been that his message isn’t getting heard because he is having trouble raising money.
Rudy Giuliani is the frontrunner by default right now. Fred Thompson is falling off the radar a little. Even Mitt Romney’s wealth can’t cover up the fact that he is Mormon, and the McCain campaign has become the ghost ship of this primary. The rest of the candidates need the political equivalent of a Hail Mary pass to be serious contenders. Huckabee was given an opening, and now we will have to wait and see if he can capitalize. If he doesn’t make progress now, he may find himself buried under all the Fred Thompson hype in September. Sometimes a candidate only get one chance during an election, and this looks like Huckabee’s. The future of his campaign may turn on his ability to make up ground on the frontrunners over the next few weeks.
Rasmussen Reports poll historyÂ
Jason Easley is the editor of the politics zone at 411mania.com. Â His news column The Political Universe appears on Tuesdays and Fridays at www.411mania.com/politicsÂ
Jason can also be heard every Sunday at 7:00 pm (ET) as the host of The Political Universe Radio Show at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thepoliticaluniverse
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7 users commented in " Poll Update: Giuliani moves ahead of Thompson "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a Trackback“Commenters are asked to refrain from personal attacks, insults . . .”
But as for the blogger, evidently anything goes!
“Even Mitt Romney’s wealth can’t cover up the fact that he is Mormon.”
Wow, a personal attack and an insult in one phrase! But I’m confused. Which is worse — to be wealthy, or to be a Mormon? Jason Easley, please enlighten us wannabe bigots who look to you for our role model!
Tracy Hall Jr
hthalljr’gmail’com
I am proud to be an American when I see the way the Iowa straw poll seemed to cut through some of the hype created by the media that was in favor of the over financed candidates.
Back about 1915 or so we had a politician named Woodrow Wilson that accepted a bribe to create the Federal Reserve. They were a group of very powerful bankers and businessmen from around the world at the time. Through the monopoly of being the source of our money and by being outside of our government, or paying any taxes, they have built up a fortune that, I believe, includes owning most of the politicians of the world.
It is going to take a determined, We the People, to restore law and order in our government before we can restore law and order in our streets.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”
-Woodrow Wilson
I don’t care of Mitt is a Mormon or a member of any other faith. The cold hard reality is that Christian social conservatives are staying away from Romney in droves because of his faith. If Romney was a Christian he would be closer to the top. Everyone can say the PC thing and avoid the topic, but the ugly truth is Romney’s faith will keep him from the nomination, and that is just sad.
Tracy Hall Jr, I suggest you look at the Republican Party for your source of bigotry, and stop jumping to conclusions about people you don’t even know. All I did was tell the truth of what is going on here. I didn’t say anything my personal feelings towards his faith, which I already said I could care less. When you look at what Romney is saying and doing on the campaign trail there is no reason for him to be struggling like this. Republicans won’t admit it, but his religion is the reason. Go read some message boards, and see how people post things saying that their party will never support a Mormon. It is a disgrace, but it is the political reality Romney is facing.
Thompson really hasnt been in the public eye at all. There was some media attention to controversies around his past positions but he hasnt been in the debates,doesnt have any tv ads yet and didnt participate in the Iowa straw poll which was all about Romney and Huckabee. The reason is obviously because he isnt an official candidate yet. Once he announces, then we will see him a lot more because he will be participating in the debates, running tv ads etc.. Most Americans are not really paying attention to the race at the moment. I think it is a good decision to stay out until Labour day. Rudy is polling around 30%, but that means 70% support someone else, and someone else more conservative than Rudy. Once they drop out I’ll bet more republicans go to Thompson then Rudy, once Thompson is seen as a serious candidate.
Please — another Thompson supporter morphing into a pretzel. You obviously have not been paying close attention to all the articles on Fred are out there including the one today and also the fact his wife was not some big political consultant before meeting Fred but now running a campaign. BTW, where has Fred been this week and most of last week? Sitting at home in his rocker waiting for wife to tell him what to do next?
You people slay me that pay attention to any poll of Rasmussen — guess you have short memories about his polls in FL.
I think the reason people are turned off by Mormanism is because while all religions have outlandish tales in them, and are taken literally or symbolically by their followers the outlandish tales in the book of Morman have no reasonable defence. A Christian, however misguided he may be, can at least look to historians and see that most agree that Jesus Christ was a real person and that the early church’s leaders were real historical figures. The country ( Palestine)is real , the towns ( Jurusalem, Bethlehem, Nazareth) are real , the Empire in power ( Roman) real , the leaders ( pontius pilot, the chief priests) were real historical figures. The early church had real bishops, real church councils and a real history, all recorded by real historians of various faiths. The miracles are unlikely but Christian apologetics has put forth some strong arguments. Mormanism has no defence. Magic glasses?, Egyptian script on tablets found in upstate New York? An ancient American civization that Jesus appeared in? Native americans the lost tribe of Israel? The Christian church vanishing ( apparently Justin Martyr, the early Popes,Augustine, Aquinas simply didnt exist) after a mere generation to reappear 1800 years later in New York? Come on!! Any religious belief kind of scares me, but their claims are outrageous and 100% fabricated. Belief in that nonsense is fair game. Christians should be asked to defend their beliefs too. Christians are actually required by the bible to learn how to defend their faith.
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