April 22 is here–Earth Day, and Scorched Earth Day in Pennsylvania. Only fools predict political outcomes this year. I qualify. So here’s what’s going to happen.

Hillary will probably win the primary. If she wins by any more than two percent, she will trumpet her triumph as a come-from-behind victory, even though she started with a 20 point lead and would lose altogether if Obama had a few more days to make nice speeches. (Hillary’s sole skill as an orator is to raise or lower the volume of her voice.)

If she wins by six or seven percentage points, she will claim a landslide and maintain that her candidacy is still alive and well. It is not. She will say that the party still wants a competitive race. It does not. The party leaders are sick to death of her and her divisiveness and sloppy campaign management and her blaming of Obama for the divisiveness she herself initiated, and that he had to respond to in order to proceed with his message.

This started as a very civil race. Hillary stopped all that, and she has consistently condemned Obama for doing things of which she herself is guilty. She played the race card and then whined about Obama’s meticulous, wide ranging speech addressing the issue. She whines about the rules in Michigan and Florida, set by her own party and agreed to by everyone, sobbing now that those voters will not be heard. As for the voters that have been heard, her campaign is trying to convince pledged delegates to change their votes to her, even though those voters chose Obama. And after setting a record for campaign whining, just days ago she told Obama to “quit whining.”

The big Clinton talking point Wednesday morning, whatever the vote, will be the advertising money. If Hillary wins, she will whine about having to do so even though Obama outspent her by a margin of at least three to one. If Obama pulls off an upset (this is possible), she will whine over the fact that Obama outspent her by a margin of at least three to one. If it is a near tie, she will call this a huge victory–and whine over the fact that Obama outspent her by a margin of at least three to one. I only wrote it three times here. You will hear it at least a half dozen times tomorrow.

In all three whining scenarios, she will not address the reason that Obama had more money to spend than she did. The reason is that Barack Obama, the “elitist” candidate, had such broad populist appeal that ordinary, non-elite people identified with him and supported him with countless small contributions over the internet. Hillary calls Obama a “copycat” (sounds like schoolyard carping), but her campaign is already trying to slap together a similar internet operation to raise cash, since her gang of fellow elitists and large contributors are already tapped out, either financially, motivationally, or legally.

You have to wonder what it will take for Hillary to read the political realities of electoral politics and the mood of the nation. How large a defeat in how many states, how much destruction to the Democratic party, how many lame excuses and “misstatements,” how many unpaid bills to ordinary people who shelled out their own resources and labor to set up her campaign events–are the party honchos going to have to strap her to a gurney and carry her off to a rehab center before she gets the picture?

Do the women of this country really want someone of this caliber, with exaggerated claims of “experience,” to represent their gender as the first woman president? If she miraculously muscles out a win and serves one term and blows it, how many skeptical men are going to use this as an excuse to say, “I told you a woman couldn’t handle the job”?

There are a number of highly qualified women, with real experience, with real character, with real judgment, even a few who have dodged real sniper fire, who would make fine presidents. I, and many men like me, are saying, “More power to them–and the sooner the better. We need to join the rest of the world and bring a woman’s perspective into the White House.” But not this woman. She will set back the cause of women for at least two election cycles if she brings her mismanagement, her lack of candor, her spin-mania, and her bottomless ego to the presidency.

Get ready for more whining and spinning late tonight and early Wednesday morning. It’s one of the few predictable certainties of this increasingly ridiculous campaign.

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