Insiders have been quietly saying for months, in fourth paragraphs, that Kansas Governor Sebelius is on Obama’s short list. But she is unknown to nearly everyone in the country. It seems entirely possible that Senator Obama is trotting out all kinds of men for public vetting, leading the media by the nose and misdirecting them so that his choice will be a dramatic surprise to the electorate. But have you noticed? He is not trotting out any women.
It would be a major affront to women for Obama to give high profile screening to so many men and not a single woman–unless he were already planning to select a woman to be his vice president. In that case, he would play up the element of surprise by giving low profile treatment to the woman he’d decided to ask. There are several reasons to suspect he will announce within the next few days that his choice is the popular and respected Governor Kathleen Sebelius, a Republican-turned-Democrat who balanced the budget and won two landslide elections  in a heavily Republican state.Â
Consider these factors:
 —Selecting Governor Sebelius would be a bold and unconventional choice, which has been the Obama campaign style all along.
—The old rule of politics would mandate that Obama pick someone prominent in the establishment to “balance the ticket.” But that would be inconsistent with his own mission of “change.” Why would he consider multiple retread names like Bayh or Biden, establishment males? A president plugs the gaps in his/her own personal deficits with cabinet and counselor positions, not necessarily with a vice president.Â
—It would energize women voters and attract the attention of blue collar voters (remember, Sebelius is from Kansas), two groups with which Obama has had some problems.
—It would help neutralize Hillary. She has already arranged to have her name put up for a roll call. (It would be a “catharsis” for women voters). It might also be chaotic. An 11th hour surprise from Team Clinton would hardly be a surprise.
—The fact that Sebelius is unknown to most of the country would be an advantage in this case. The reason? It would guarantee large scale media coverage–massive free publicity–as the press scrambles to help introduce her to a public that has heard almost nothing about her or her impressive accomplishments.
—This coverage would keep Obama’s campaign in the news at a time when polls have reported that voters are suffering from “Obama fatigue“–they are tired of hearing his name in the news all the time. So the focus would be on Kathleen Sebelius for awhile and off of Barack Obama. That would give the public time to rest up from Obamamania, meet an interesting new candidate, and still have the Obama phenomenon in front of them in a less obtrusive way.
—This blizzard of publicity would tend to be a distraction from the Republican Convention coverage and slow down the momentum McCain would normally get from these highly scripted carnivals.
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—The Sebelius record in Kansas is very strong on two of the biggest election issues–healthcare and clean energy and would highlight the contrast with McCain’s call to drill for more of the oil we are already addicted to. Neither the insurance industry nor the coal industry were any match for this iron-willed and politically skilled woman.
—Obama has stated that he wants a running mate who speaks their mind, not a yes-person. Sample several of the YouTube videos of Governor Sebelius and see how long it takes you to notice that she fulfills this requirement. The videos will also give you a better idea of how prominent this “unknown” person is within the Democratic hierarchy and why she might be an even stronger candidate than several other qualified women in the party.
Sebelius would be a non-traditional choice running with a non-traditional candidate in a decidedly non-traditional election year in which the voters, utterly sick of the status quo, are likely to vote non-traditionally.
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Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackI agree with you about the merits of Sebelius as a VP candidate. However, I am not so sure about the “misdirection” involved. Obama and his inner circle have been very tight-lipped about who is or isn’t on the short list (with the exception of H. Clinton). The “public vetting” has mostly been due to comments from the ostensible candidates themselves or their associates (Kaine, Dodd), or a product of the inevitable media and internet speculative discussion (Biden, Bayh, Nunn, et al.). If the community of speculators has been misdirected, it is because we have done so ourselves.
Insightful piece….It certainly would be the choice of “Change.
The above analyis is exactly right. Here’s additional context: At this point, given all the trial balloons floated in the past few weeks — Kaine, Bayh and this week Biden — it’s clear that none of those three would excite a cocker spaniel, much less Obama’s base or the media. But surprise does not mean shock, and if Obama picked someone wholly unknown on the national stage, like Gov. Schweitzer of Montana, the media would play it as an enormous gamble. And it would be. How a total unknown would fare in the acid glare of the networks and the nightly comedians is impossible to estimate. And the Obama people aren’t gamblers.
Let’s all return to what really counts: Obama’s own known priorities for picking people who are going to be close to him, which includes the person he expects to be his governing partner:
First, it’s going to be someone he already knows, not someone he barely knows, and he knows and likes Sebelius. Second, it’s going to be someone who knows how to get down to the substance of problems that affect people’s daily lives, in terms that ordinary people understand. (This rules out all bloviators, like Biden or Richardson.) Once again, that’s Sebelius. Third, it’s going to be someone who helps him with a major problem that’s inhibiting movement toward him among those who aren’t part of his existing base. (This rules out Bayh.)
No one, not even Biden, can help him with his perceived newness to national security or foreign policy. If he looks strong and decisive on such questions in the debates with McCain, this entire issue is neutralized. If he doesn’t, his running mate is not going to be able to bail him out.
There are only two other problems that are making people hesitate about Obama. The first is the reality that he’s a bit aloof — he is not a back-slapping pol who downs shot glasses of any liquid put in front of him. But none of the male VP possibilities are exactly hilarious guys-next-door either. Obama is going to have to open up more and relax on his own, as he will.
That leaves one problem: The surprising percentage of older white Democratic and independent women who are not embracing Obama, the candidate whose stands on social and economic issues coincide far more closely with their own views than those of McCain. This is real, and it’s why there has been such concern about Hilllary at the convention, because what she says on that podium could worsen or help alleviate this problem.
There’s another way to alleviate it altogether, regardless of how Bill and Hillary behave at the convention: pick Sebelius. She’s articulate, mature, older than either Obama or Hillary Clinton, and she is utterly likable and disarming the moment the camera rests on her smile. And she’s been a roaring success as a governor, in no small part because women — including many Republican women — love her. Forget the supposed Hillary backlash if he picks another woman. Obama beat her; no wonder they’re sore. But if Obama picks a woman to be his vice president, he’s doing the opposite of that — he’s hiring a woman. And don’t underestimate Sebelius’s capacity to win them over.
Within a week after the Republican convention (so long as McCain doesn’t pick a woman), an Obama-Sebelius ticket would start eating ferociously into McCain’s numbers among moderate Republican women. That would put Pennsylvania and Michigan out of reach for McCain, and give the ticket new zip in Florida and Missouri.
Let’s face it: the Obama phenomenon has been sagging in the summer. Sebelius would be perfect for September — getting him to the debates with a rising margin over McCain, and the media ready to anoint him again if he succeeds in that most critical test that usually determines the winner in modern presidential elections.
But wait, Sebelius is already speaking at the convention? Be serious, it’s a perfect cover for springing a surprise. She hasn’t been run up the flagpole like Kaine? Precisely. If she had, she wouldn’t be a surprise at this point.
Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh and Joe Biden are the groomsmen at this wedding — they’ve been held up to deserved acclaim, and Virginia, Indiana and foreign policy expertise have been embraced and saluted. Those boomlets have served a purpose.
But it’s going to be Kathleen. And there’s a final reason why: She embodies and reinforces the reality that this election is about Change — as no one else could, who’s been on any list.
Reading the above comments and insights has made my friday afternoon. I have been hoping and praying he will pick Sebelius, and have been dismayed the last few days, convincing myself that it would be Bayh. The thought of Bayh make me less excited about Obama – Obama and Sebelius makes me want to jump, dance, and sing.
I hope this happens…and I am glad I am not the only one who feels this way.
My bet is still on Kathleen Sebelius for VP, its been her for a good 3 months now.
It would have been Hillary as VP but she blew it going to negative on Obama to the point now McCain is using her comments as his own negative ads.
Kathleen Sebelius is the perfect yin-yang for Obama.
Obama-Sebelius ’08
http://www.betastart.com/SW/obama-sebelius.jpg
Thank all of you for your insights and comments. TRIBUNUS PLEBIS: You are a great writer and a very clear thinker. I wish I’d written my article as well as you did your comment. It is a blog in itself. You should sign up with Blogger News Network as a writer–go to: http://www.bloggernews.net/write-for-bnn
Do you want me to post this for you now as a blog? It would be under my name since I’m already registered here, but I would of course give you full credit, plus I’d add any other information you’d want me to post about you (such as if you have a website, etc.). If you give me this permission in this comment section, I will check our “dashboard” to make sure the permission comment matches the information from your already posted comment (thus preventing some prankster from giving me bogus authorization). Or if you can get it posted yourself–it doesn’t take long–by all means do so. Hope to be reading more from you, either here or in your own blog posts.
–Mark Mercer
This article made my day – renewed my hope . . . Like Tribunus Plebis said, “forget the supposed Hillary backlash if he picks another woman . . .don’t underestimate Sebelius’s capacity to win them over. That’s my vision of her too. That woman’s awesome!
No wonder Hillary’s intimidated, she’s afraid we’ll come to recognize what a competent woman, who makes it on her own steam, looks like.
In addition, if Barack has the nerve to pick Sebelius, he will inspire the respect of many people.
Finally, like Sebelius Supporter, “the thought of . . .Obama and Sebelius makes me want to jump, dance, and sing.”
I’m so excited!
ARE YOU PEOPLE NUT’S one question that I want to ask you is did Sebelius get 18 000 000 vote’s did she hell NO! I ask you choose then he would make a clear path for Hillary 2012
GO HILLARY 2012
Sebelius killed her chances with her wooden, sleep-inducing response to W’s SOTU.
She might pass for an exciting, dynamic personality in Wichita…not so much in the rest of the country.
Realist–You’re right about her “sleep-inducing” response to the State of the Union. She appeared to be overcoached (as Bill Clinton often was, and Bush always is)and the set designer threw in every kind of background prop except an Irish setter. That fireplace alone would be an ideal hypnotic induction tool. You might look at some of her more impromptu comments on the videos. Her voice is not “exciting,” but she is definitely dynamic and strong. Her handlers can kill her chances by overscripting her and trying to make her sound like Betty Crocker. You are not alone in your criticism of her “fireside snore.” Even I agree with that, and I’ve been pushing her for veep for months. Thanks for taking the time to post. –Mark Mercer
Am I crazy or did Hillary not get the most popular votes? The electoral colege is archaic in this age of the electonics. Obama need those votes. He needs to choose someone with experience on the world stage. Are you watching Russia. We had better be prepared on more than one front.
I can see Obama selecting Sebelius, she’d reinforce Obama’s back-story in terms of his mother and her Kansas upbringing. Also, isn’t Sebelius originally from Ohio? I think picking Yet Another White Male–regardless of whom it might be–would, to some extent, detract from the original source of Obama’s appeal.
However, if she is the Veep selection, Sebelius’ next speech (at the convention) becomes a somewhat larger deal than it would ordinarily be. If her 2nd speech on a national stage were to end up as unwatchable as her first was, the press would add 1+1 and get 3–meaning they’d make Sebelius and her speeches a bigger deal than they actually should be.
Also, I think if the Democrats go woman-not-Hillary, Sarah Palin comes into serious consideration as a potental McCain VP.
Sure, Palin hasn’t been in a state-wide office all that long–but neither has the guy at the top of the Democrats ticket.
Sebelius and Palin would be inspired and intriguing choices. And the VP debate would become must-see TV.
I like Seblius as the running-mate, but I don’t see how she’s a better choice than Clinton. As for “making it on her own steam” (apparently unlike Hillary?) let’s not forget she’s the daughter of a governor (John Gilligan of Ohio).
I find it puzzling that Obama supporters are so afraid of Hillary Clinton doing something to damage the ticket. If she’s the VP nominee she will do everything in her power to help deliver victory. She has already been doing a lot over the past two months. Hillary Clinton in the final months of the primary campaign was tremendously impressive-charismatic, detailed, knowledgeable and inspiring. What kind of presidential nominee would be afraid to have her as a running mate?
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So much for my career as a psychic. Oops.
–Mark Mercer
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