We have been discussing the CNN-IBN poll on Karnataka elections in these columns. The CNN-IBN poll prediction that Congress is expected to get majority in Karnataka has been widely criticized as “motivatedâ€.
Now it is learnt that the punters have their own estimates and these estimates predict around 100 seats for BJP and around 60 seats for Congress with JDS around 20. This estimate is closer to what we thought would be realistic.Â
Obviously the supporters of each party would try to say that their party will get the majority. It is the duty of the pollsters to raise above party loyalties and come to a close estimation based on public response. However it is necessary that the public responses have to be converted into seat estimates on a logical basis. We hope that the polling agencies have the confidence in their methodology to make their approach public.Â
For the consideration of future pollsters, I am providing herewith a brief sample approach with reference to Karnataka for a pre-election opinion poll for the purpose of predicting the seats. I am placing this before the public for their comments so that like the evolution of an open source software, we may arrive at an “open source election forecast methodologyâ€. Â
With this sort of a transparent approach, the only variable part would be a survey which any field research agency may do and collate the results. Let’s call this as the Version 1 of the Naavi Election Forecast system (NEFS-v1) for the sake of reference. Â
The prerequisites for this system are
a)Â Â Â Â Â List of constituencies for the election with configuration with reference to earlier constituencies.
b)Â Â Â Â Â List of constituencies in the previous election and party wise poll details
c)Â Â Â Â Â Number of new voters
d)     Number of Deletions from voter’s list
e)Â Â Â Â Â Total number of voters in each constituency and total.Â
Methodology: A survey would be conducted in select constituencies based on a questionnaire. Responses will only try to estimate the “Swing†with reference to the previous election on select determinants and not directly try to ask “Which Party do you vote?â€Â Reponses will be collated and put through the system of forecast explained below. Â
- The State would be divided into some homogeneous zones with specific expected vote patterns. Since the survey has to cover each of these representative zones, there is a limitation as to the number of zones selected because of cost and logistic considerations. For Karnataka, it is suggested that the following zones would be desirable.
- Bangalore District
- Rest of Old Mysore Area
- Malanad Area
- Costal Karnataka
- North Karnataka (Hubli belt)
- Hyderabad Karnataka
 If required, the survey can be restricted to four zones namely, (a+b+c), d, e and f. Â
- Survey would be conducted by covering each of the chosen zones atleast one constituency. The sampling size has to be at least 2,000 for each zone with as much spread as possible amongst men, women, new and old voters etc.
- The State has a unique position in this year’s election since this is the first election after the constituencies were re configured. Hence each present constituency represents a combination of a few earlier constituencies. This needs to be factored into the calculations. (Suggestion given separately)
- It is reported that there was a large scale revision of voter lists and nearly 40 lakh new investors have come into the fold and nearly 20 lakh names have been deleted. This is as significant number and needs to be factored in. (Suggestion given separately)
- Previous election vote shares would be taken as a base and this years swings are added or subtracted to arrive at the share of votes for each parties.
- The swing will be calculated on three factors namely
- National Factor
- Local Factor
- Candidate Factor
 On each of these factors, the survey will capture the relative change in the perception of the subject for each party on a scale of-5 to + 5. Of these -5 to-3 is taken as a negative swing, +3 to +5 is taken as a positive swing . The remaining is considered neutral.No question will be asked such as “Which party you voted last time? Or Which party you are going to vote this timeâ€?Â
The swing would be applied to the last known vote share to arrive at the estimated vote share for each party.
These vote shares would be converted into seats in each region on the following formula:
- At the first stage a seat forecast percentage factor (SFPF) would be calculated for each party based on the vote percentage forecast.
- Upto 10%, SEPF=0 each     Â
- 11 to 14 SEPF=1 each    Â
- 5-20% SEPF=2 eachÂ
- 21-30 % SEPF =3 each   Â
- Â 31-and above % SEPF=4 each
[The figures above can be assigned on the basis of past data if available]
- Â
- Parties will be ranked in the order of vote shares
-  The seat share would be calculated by applying the SEPF on the number of seats in the region first on the top party. Then on each of the subsequent parties in the hierarchy. The base for calculation would be the number of seats available. For example , the base for the first party would be the total seats available. After arriving at their share, the remaining seats will be shared by the remaining parties . At this level their SEPF would be readjusted removing the first party from the pool. This process would be repeated for subsequent levels.
 A few examples of how the vote share forecast would be converted into seats under this scheme is given below. Example 1Â
 | Party 1 | Party 2 | Party 3 | Others |
Vote Share Forecast | 40% | 30% | 25% | 5 |
Total Seats for each party | 28 | 13 | 9 | 0 |
    Example 2Â
 | Party 1 | Party 2 | Party 3 | Others |
Vote Share Forecast | 30% | 28% | 25% | 17% |
Total Seats for each party | 18 | 16 | 12 | 4 |
   Example 3Â
 | Party 1 | Party 2 | Party 3 | Others |
Vote Share Forecast | 45% | 43% | 10% | 2 |
Total Seats for each party | 26 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
    P.S: Effect of Additions and Deletions:Â
Effect of deletion and addition from voters list will be computed as follows.
 a)      Deletion: The vote share first calculated ignoring the new voters and then the adjusted (after deletion) vote percentage is calculated. For example, last election P1=35% P2=25% P3=20%.
b)Â Â Â Â Â Deletions say 10%. Then adjustment due to deletions would be made on the previous vote share at 3.5%, 2.5% and 2 % Adjusted vote shares of the previous election will be used for further calculations. Adjusted vote share would be 31.5%, 22.5% and 18% respectively for the above.
c)     Additions say 20%: Ignored in the first level. Swings calculated. Let us say this gives swings for P1=+ 3%, P2 =-5% and P3=+2%. The additional voters will be expected to represent a vote share of previous election adjusted for the swing. Ie at the rate 38%, 20% and 22% in the above example. For the above case the swing adjustments would be increased by P1=+0.76%, P2=0.4% and P3=+0.44 %
 Effect of DelimitationÂ
Each present constituency will be expressed as a combination of earlier constituencies and the proportionate figures from the previous election would be incorporated to find the consolidated vote percentage for the new constituency. If a community of interested persons on the Internet can conduct an online survey at least for regions such as Bangalore, we can put the above method of conversion of vote share into seat prediction to test. We hope that the pollsters who hog TV publicity would make their methodology public so that we can at least be satisfied if there was any bias or not.Â
Suggestions are welcome.
Naavi
31 users commented in " Karnataka Elections.. Who Will Win?.. An open source methodology. "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackIBN was indeed a motivated and biased poll. They are fast losing credibility whatever is left. Same thing happened in Gujarat.
CNN -IBN is prostitute antonio maino’s mouth piece now…CNN-IBN want to please madam & youvraj…shameful journalsm..
CNN has projected it correctly. There is no BJP wave in karnataka it is all a hype. It was all because of Vajpayee that BJP got like 80 seats last time. I think BJP will get less than 50 seats now. JDS will get 25 seats.
all these polls are north india biased. JDS will emerge victorious this election. Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy alone can make Karnataka’s poor and farmers and middle class lives better. We don’t want anybody
BJP in karnataka is party of some rich lingayats only. No other caste mebers will vote for BJP. so INC will form next govt
BJP has been able to forge an all-inclusive agenda this time. All the leaders are very down-to-earth and polite in their manners. The website http://www.vijayeekarnataka.com shows how clearly and cogently Mr. B.S. Yeddyurrappa is articulating the policies that he had pursued before and what he would do in the future. Without a question, BJP will easily get a majority, question is whether it will be a simple majority, a 2/3 majority or a Landslide victory. Let’s hope for a Landslide BJP victory. Jai Karnataka Mathe.
A Landslide BJP victory which sounds possible at this time will have huge resonating waves that will reach New Delhi and will be a significant influence in the upcoming 2009 Lok Sabha elections which will be somewhat decisive for India, in terms of crushing the pseudo-secularists and communists.
Common-sense Poll Predictions:
Bangalore city: BJP single largest party or may be 50/50 with Congress.
Rest of Bangalore: Triangular contest: BJP v/s Congress v/s JDS.
Old Mysore Area: BJP single largest party —–due to large scale defection into BJP.
Hyderbad Karnataka (NE Karnataka): BJP v/s Congress–probably neck to neck.
Malnad Karnataka: simple majority for BJP.
North Karnataka (Belgaum, Dharwad area): BJP Landslide Victory.
Coastal Karnataka: Landslide BJP victory.
Any questions please e-mail: kumar_665@yahoo.com
BJP is surviving th campaign on hypes. And you wont see many BJP supporters in forum after results are out.. BJP is basically a lingayat party in Karnataka.
The real fact is that BJP/JDS govt has somewhat ruined the good name of Karnataka. And the Bangalore city’s prestige is at stake! Kannadigas knows this and they saw how the Bajrangis where trying to creat problems after BJP was part of the govt.
BJP didnt give at least one seat to the people belonging to minority. So 15% of votes is gone. Then vokkalingas, they wont vote BJP. SC/ST and other backward people are firmly with Congress. And Congress attarct people from all comunities across the state.
Even in last elections BJP go 10% lesser votes than Congress (eventhough they got some more seats). And this time most of the JDS votes are going to Congress kitty, with most of uts leaders too joining.
So basically BJP can claim they will get majority or sweep untill th 3rd phase is over and you wont see many claims after that. Congress is going to get a simple majority. If they sweep it remains to be seen. BJP will get 50-60 seats and JDS around 40-45
Cong will Win. BJP is a party of Lingayats. And JDS has lost its credibility. No party will get majority.
My Prediction:
Cong: 100
BJP: 75
JDS: 20
BJP got so many seats just by fluke. INC will and should form the govt. and BJP can confirme to be a North Indian party.
Do you knwo there are still states in India where this so called National prty do not even have 1 MLA forget MP seat…they can thrive only on religious agenda and nothing else.Corruption in name of religion is their motto…It is high time some forward looking parties be the opposition rather than these communal fringe elements.
CNN-IBN poll is wrong. They were wrong in Gujrat as well. There is a national-level wave for the Indian Nationalists led by the BJP at this point in time. Thanks,
Its disheartening to see too much caste politics. All parties are well represented by people of all castes. BJP has several backward-caste candidates and so does Congress. What is the point fighting this way. Think of the issues—such as which direction the nation is going. Is it not really sad that in a Hindu-majority nation we can’t build a magnificient temple for Lord ShriRam. In Muslim countries like Pakistan —-some very old, historic temples build about 1000 years ago are in ruins and are being used as automobile work-shops. So, arise you all Indians, please take back India to her past glory. Vote the Indian Nationalist led by the BJP. Jai Karnataka Mathe.
In its manifesto “SANKALPA” the BJP should also mention that they will build a beautiful, architecturally marvelous temple for Lord Shriram in Karnataka and will name it “DAKSHIN AYODHYA”. Also, they should emphasize they will fully support the building a marvelous, mega-milion dollar temple in the Lord Ram’s hometown of Ayodhya in Uttar Pradesh. Thank You,
Hi All,
JDS Will definitely win. If they cant be kings but they are king makers.Cong or BJP will not come in majority.Agian the same history repeats so Devagowda is the king maker.I am 100% sure.
Yes, I agree with Reena, JDS will win with a Landslide majority. Mehrajuddin Patel will be the first Muslim CM of any South Indian state. Muslims will be provided unprecedented reservation in Karnataka and Karnataka will be Islamicized in less than 20 years. You know the JDS flag is green in color—just resembles the Pakistani flag!! Way to go JDS.
Congress Will definitely win.JDS or BJP will not come in majority.S.M.Krishna is the CM.I am 100% sure.
BJP will create history by getting an absolutely comfortable majority. India will be set on the right track. These terrorist attacks by Muslims, Pakistan firing at Indian soldiers, Naxalites attacking innocent people— will all stop and India will become a beautiful, peace-loving, prosperous nation. Karnataka, Gujarat, Punjab—all BJP bastions and prosperous Indian states. Jai Karnatak.
I wish all good leadres must win. The people like Shamanur Shivashankarappa of Davangere must win. He has done lot to eduation system in Middle karnataka and Today we can see many people from Davangere are placed in different parts of the world because of the good education given by Bapuji Association lead by Dr. Shamanur Shivashankarappaji
Placed from Tampa, Florida, USA
I think BJP will win and it deserves a landslide victory. To be frank, Kumaraswamy cheated BJP.This happens to be the most immoral decision ever by JDS.No point discussing about congress since it lost its cridibility among people as congress has become a family affiar..they never give chance to others to rise above their heads(sonia and Rahul)
BJP will definitely will get a footing.. Enough of its Lingayat card play..Lingayats are just alone represent Karnataka..Yediurappa dont have any charm or charisma to attract a common voter ,,,
I have a feel, Cong&JDS will share the seat.
simple majority for BJP, BSY will be the chief minister
A huge Indian Nationalist bastion in the making—The State of Karnataka. Huge gains for BJP expected and huge changes in political discourse from thereafter. Expect huge wins in Phase 2 and 3, simple win in Phase 1.
Reply to Bangalorean——-
Charm in no more necessary in politics. Its the work you do, its about what you stand for. Common man understands this more than one’s charm. Charming people will bite the dust if they think charm alone will bring them the win.
I think BJP shall win this time, although with simple majority. Poll predictions are just about simple statistical averages for a lay man and great time pass for journalists. They better focus on positive development of citizens
We have to hope for single largest party to come into power in Karnataka to save the state from block mail by regional parties.The people are fed up with day to day drama’s happened earlier.No development activity in last 4 years.only fighting for power.we have to wait till 25th to know thw status.
I wish all the best to JDS, Will hope H.D kumaraswami will be the next chief minsters,
About BJP and congress, they dont have good young leader all are running around 75 years age mark , they cant do well for karnatake , for the Power and money sake only they are giving some fake publisity.
BJP is soley running on the basis of money power and revenge.The state govt has also gone mad because of it’s Chruch attacks,mangalore Pub attacks and attacks on women in bangalore and B S yeddurappa has also gone mad wasting all the govt money in temples n all..
I wish all the best to JDS and it will emerge victorous in this election.
A healthy mind in a healthy body.
An expert is a person who has made all the mistakes that can be made in a very narrow field.
All parties are running on the basis of money power caste .The BJP govt has not given stability B S yeddurappa misuse the power and public money
I wish all the best to NCP and it will get victorous in this election.Its unhappy to see too much caste politics. All parties are well represented by people of all castes. BJP has several backward-caste candidates and so does Congress. please vote to get Clean hand leader and Educator
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