According to the results of the opinion poll conducted by CNN-IBN and Week just before the last date for filing of nominations, the following vote and seat shares have been predicted for the major parties.

Congress: Vote share to raise by 2%  from 35% to 37%

BJP: Vote share to drop by 11% from 34% to 23%

JDS: Vote share to raise by 1% from  19% to 20%

KJP: Vote share to raise by 7% from 0% to 7%

Correspondingly the projected seats are as follows

Congress : 117-129 (Up from 80)

BJP:  39-49 (Down from 110)

JDS:   34-44 (Up from 28)

KJP plus others: 14-22 (up from zero)

The above projections must be seen with the following additional factors.

1.  Congress is expected to have a large number of rebel candidates as well as  pulling of rug under the feet by the CM competitors.

2. There was the bomb blast in which some Congress leaders blamed BJP

3. Entry of S.M.Krishna and the poll findings that he is still a popular leader within Congress

4. Silent work being put by JDS which makes it a dark horse in many constituencies.

5. BSR Congress and Loksatta party with micro strengths which have been totally neglected in the focus

5. Large number of recent educated voters who are itching to record their voice of protest both against Congress and BJP besides KJP.

If we consider all these factors, we need to consider that the estimate of “Others” at 14-22 appear to be extremely under rated.

There could be at least 20 independents who may have chances of winning. Further BSR Congress and other minor parties including the Loksatta, Communists, AIADMK etc cannot be expected to draw a “Zero”. Hence the estimates of “Others” appear to be short by about 30 seats. If we add another 10 as the short fall in JDS, there appears to be around 40 seats over estimation in the Congress seat projections.

If these concerns materialize, then we may see a situation where Congress may need to depend on the support of JDS to form the Government. In such a situation, the consequences are unpredictable.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario would be “Governor’s Rule” at least until the next Loksabha elections.

Let us wait and see how things develop further.

Vijayashankar. as a voter of Karnataka

Be Sociable, Share!