Obama has won, thanks to three months of press adulation that persuaded the “superdelegates”, despite a last minute surge that supported Hillary Clinton.

So now expect an official kissing up between candidates and a nominal amount of campaigning for the selected not elected candidate Obama.

The NYTimes has a long analysis here, but the key paragraph is:

“If McCain wins a race that Democrats expect to win, a lot of people will say, ‘If she had won the nomination, we would have won,’ ” said Michael Kazin, a historian at Georgetown University. That could set the stage for a Clinton candidacy in 2012.

The press attributes the 60/40 working class vote against Obama to racism, (polls suggest ten percent of voters rejected him on racial grounds) but never noticed the opposite: That 90 percent of black voters voted for Obama, and that he surrounds himself with some pretty odious black leaders who preach anti white racism.

There is a lot of prejudice out there, and one of these days I will try to write up the reasons and perceptions that are behind that prejudice (my fear is that if I try to explain it, the opinions will be attributed to me, not my sources, and I will be ostracized as a racist, as when Geraldine Farraro tried to explain it and has been blackballed by her Democratic peers).

As long as political correctness and name calling disallows a real discussion on race, including how affirmative action and racial quotas have harmed non blacks of all races, the resentment will simmer along undiscussed.

But Obama, whose friendship with white and black radical supporters, has not so much instituted a “discussion” of racism as stopped any civil discussion of it. And one casualty of this censorship could very well be his loss in November.

Will Obama’s loss be blamed on Hillary? Perhaps. But the result will be a major fight for the soul of the Democratic party between the extreme left/elites, who have funded Obama’s candidacy and the moderates, as represented by the Democratic Leadership Conference and Bill Clinton.

Think of it as the Manhattan radical chic versus NASCAR dads and soccer moms.

Since one of the reasons that the Democrats won the Legislatures in 2006 was that they ran moderate (aka blue dog) Democrats, one cannot assume that the extreme left will retain control of the party apparatus.

If McCain wins, few expect McCain to run for a second term. This leaves four yeaars for Hillary to strengthen her base, perhaps by promoting base issues like health care reform, while strengthening her foreign policy credentials.

On the other hand, if Obama takes over, there will be a foreign policy debacle.

Right now, Iran is letting the clock run out, figuring that an Obama win will let them get a nuke without any US response, and that if Israel tries self defense, an Obama whose backers dislike Israel might pull the plug on American support for that country.

Iraq may be stable enough to make it on their own, but a re-energized Iran might lead to further destabilization, with a Saudi response.

But the real problem with Obama is the oil shortage.

Promoting “green” policies while claiming the US shouldn’t buy oil from dictators makes a good sound bite, but has little to do with reality. The US buys most of it’s oil from Canada and Mexico, not “dictators”, and most of the right wing blogs keep pointing out that “green” policies are standing in the way of using US oil and coal and nuclear technology.

But Obama’s problem is Obama himself.

Obama might be a messiah to the star addled press, but self righteousness quickly tires ordinary folks, and even if Leno won’t be there to point out the ironies, the South Park/YouTube generation has no such limitations at poking fun at their esteemed elders. McCain can laugh at himself; Obama so far is humor challenged.

Hillary has survived twelve years of right wing ridicule; Obama may not survive until the election.

But if Obama does win, four years of self righteous preaching will make people yearn for an old fashioned sleezy politicians, leading to a grass roots campaign to draft Hillary in 1012: think Carter/Kennedy Redux.

So no matter who wins in 2008, expect the Clinton machine to rev up again in 2012.


Nancy Reyes is a retired physician living in the rural Philippines. her website is Finest Kind Clinic and Fishmarket.

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