Produced by the Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies (GLCSS)

CEAR Weekly Assessment


Editor’s Note:



Current Week
Last Week
1 5 5 Zone remains volatile.
FARDC accused of conducting violence against civilians
200 FNI troops undergoing disarmament
2 2 2 RVF campaign starts in Tanzania
Inland lake shrinking
3 1.5 2 Situation stabilising after clashes between UPDF and Karamajong
4 4 4 Potential to increase to level 5 as ceasefire expires
Insecurity remains high in South Sudan
5 3 3 LRA troops inside CAR territory
6 1 1 Situation is stable
Illegal logging continues in DRC
7 1.5 2 No changes to the report
Situation is stabilising
8 1.5 2 Dissuasive measures for Congolese willing to return to Angola
Mixed enquiry commission established
9 1.5 1.5 Number of Congolese returning from Tanzania reaches 25 000
10 3 3 Food security deteriorating
Partisan eviction continues
11 1 1 No changes to the report
12 1 1.5 Evicted Rwandans to be allowed to reclaim properties



CEAR also encompasses a conflict database and assessment system that can be used to assess and alert the member states of the ICGLR to potential or increased conflict levels. Conflict alerts and reports may be sent to CEAR Regional Coordinator Emmanuel Fanta

CEAR is a community project and all members of the Great Lakes Community are encouraged to participate with alerts, suggestions, and comments.

Emmanuel Fanta
CEAR Regional Coordinator

William Church
Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies

Index to Warning Levels

5—armed conflict/tribal violence
4—armed conflict suspended by truce or peace process
3—political instability/reports of increased human rights abuse/lack of rule of law
2—movement away from stable situation increased risk
1—improving situation ICGLR projects in implementation stage
0—all ICGLR projects complete/or stable situation

*Adjustments to index warning levels occur during the CEAR trial phase to develop an accurate implementation of the warning system.

The CEAR focuses on the 12 zones established by the ICGLR as region-based Border Security Management Framework (BSMF):

  • Zone 1: Zone Volcano (Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC)
  • Zone 2: EAC-Lake Sango Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania)
  • Zone 3: The Kapototur (Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes) Cradle of Man Triangle (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan and Ethiopia)
  • Zone 4: The West-Nile Triangle (Sudan, Uganda, and DRC)
  • Zone 5: River Oubangui Corridor (Sudan, CAR, and DRC)
  • Zone 6: Equator Triangle (RoC, DRC and CAR)
  • Zone 7: The Atlantic Triangle (DRC, RoC and Angola)
  • Zone 8: The  Benguela Corridor (DRC, Zambia, Angola)
  • Zone 9: Lake Tanganyika Corridor (Tanzania, DRC, Burundi and Zambia)
  • Zone 10: Zone CEPGL (DRC, Burundi and Rwanda)
  • Zone 11: The Kagera Triangle  (Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda)
  • Zone 12: Rusumo Triangle (Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi)


Zone 1: Zone Volcano (Uganda, Rwanda, and DRC)


Descriptive summary:  This zone is currently the most volatile. It is characterized by security complexities. The main complexities are the range of states involved in this zone, mutual distrust, and roots causes in lack of good governance, and identity politics.

Negative Security Actors/Factors: Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), former Rwandese Armed Forces (ex-FAR), Democratic Liberation Forces of Rwanda (FDLR/FOCA), FNI,  Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), Peoples Redemption Army (PRA), dissident members of the Congolese Army (FARDC) lead by Laurent Nkunda, ex-soldiers and militias waiting for demobilization.

Current Status: 

Security Issues

FNI troops start reintegration process


Parts of Peter Karim’s FNI troops have started their reintegration process at the Kpandroma reintegration centre. Only 170 of the expected 200 men arrived in Kpandroma to be demobilised. Among those who have arrived at the locality situated 90km North-East of Bunia, the presence of 42 children has been reported. The MONUC spokesperson reported that the children have been redirect to the appropriate camps while the adults will undergo a demobilisation process. The 170 FNI militiamen are also reported to have handed in 25 Kalashnikov rifles, two heavy machine guns and about 10 crates of anti-tank mines.

The reintegration of this first batch of FNI troops has been rendered possible by Peter Karim’s willingness to disarm some of his troops. Peter Karim has been negotiating his surrender with MONUC in the recent weeks. The surrender and disarmament of 170 of his troops is believed to be a sign of his readiness to continue talks with MONUC and the Congolese government. Peter Karim has also declared that he would agree to surrender if the Congolese state would give him amnesty. Moreover, another group of 200 of his troops is expected to be sent to a reintegration centre next week.

Peter Karim and his FNI troops have been weakened by the recent FARDC operation aimed at dislodging him from his hideouts and cutting his supply lines and this is a driving factor of his agreement to disarm. The progress in Ituri has been steady and will continue as the Kabila government continues to extend its state authority to Ituri District.; however, CEAR remains cautious about the disarmament timetable but optimistic on the positive end results.
Karim is considered responsible for killing two UN peacekeepers and other war crimes and this could pose additional obstacles to the granting of full amnesty.  

Population flee from their villages fearing reprisal, FARDC accused of looting


The population in Djugu territory, 60Km from Bunia, are reported fleeing their villages. In recent weeks, the area surrounding Djugu has witnessed intense fighting between FARDC and Peter Karim’s FNI militiamen. Peter Karim and his men had been stationed in the area but have been expelled by an FARDC offensive during the last three weeks.

The local population is currently taking refuge in Pimbo, some 20Km away from their home in Djugu, and schools are closed in the area. According to some sources, there could be up to 2, 500 families that have fled Djugu and are currently in Pimbo where they are yet to receive humanitarian assistance.

FARDC troops have also been accused of looting various medical dispensaries in Djugu territory. According to information confirmed by the United Nations humanitarian organ, OCHA, up to 20 medical facilities have been looted in  Linga, Djiba and Rety.

In an unrelated event, Masisi inhabitants have also reported looting and pillaging committed by men in FARDC uniforms. Merchant going to the Nyabiondo market have also lost their properties to FARDC soldiers. Three trucks and five pick-up trucks have been looted while on the road going to the same market.

The Masisi population has accused soldiers of the recently mixed Charly brigade, which has been stationed in Masisi for a month, of being responsible. However, the brigade commander denies any wrong doing by his troops.

CEAR notes this development with interest. Masisi, the previous stronghold of Laurent Nkunda, had previously been off-limits to the FARDC and is now experiencing its first FARDC deployment. Strategically, Masisi will prove its importance in any future conflict with remaining FDLR elements to the east in the Virunga Mountains, and the support of the local population is essential.

In addition, the most alarming trend is the continuing unprofessional conduct of the FARDC and the future of rule of law in the Kabila government, which had proved to be a political stronghold. Since the FARDC has its highest concentration in Eastern DRC, continued looting by the FARDC could eventually undermine the elimination of the remaining armed groups and the political stability of President Kabila.

Officers and soldiers ordered to return to their home region, 11 deserters are caught


Six FARDC officers have been ordered to return to their home region. The commander of the 10th military region, based in Bukavu, has decided to expel six officers and 30 soldiers from South Kivu. This move was motivated by a desire to defuse possible tensions with the local population and other soldiers from the 10th military region. The expelled officers and soldiers are believed to have fought against the 10th military region alongside Colonel Jules Mutebutsi in 2004.

MONUC has also expressed its surprise that Lieutenant-Colonel Biyoyo was among the officers ordered to return to the 8th military region. According to MONUC, Lt-Col Biyoyo has been condemned to a prison sentence by a garrison tribunal in March 2006 for insurrection and illegal detention of children. Lt-Col Biyoyo had escaped from Bukavu prison in July 2006 during a mass escape.

Some 11 deserters and former Laurent Nkunda men have been caught in the Ruzizi Plain in South-Kivu by a FARDC patrol. All 11 of these men are reported to have escaped from Luberizi “brassage” centre.

Among the deserters, one is believed to by originally from Uganda and two are reported as Rwandans. The remaining deserters are believed to be Congolese from the Masisi area in North-Kivu. While the foreign deserters are to be transferred to Kinshasa to await a decision by the FARDC command, the Congolese deserters will be returned to the “brassage” centre.

Human Insecurity Issues

Insufficient number of vaccines in meningitis vaccination campaign


A vaccination campaign launched in Ituri on Saturday is facing a shortage of vaccines. Medical experts have declared that vaccination will thus be limited to the areas surrounding Adi, 350km North of Bunia.

With only 112,000 doses to cover the district’s five sanitary zones, priority has been given to the inhabitants of Adi and its surrounding where a meningitis epidemic broke out. Medical experts have also added that a new demand for more vaccines doses would have to be made if new cases where reported outside from Adi health zone.


ICGLR Projects

New road linking Rwanda, Uganda and DRC to be built, Roadblock on Goma-Sake lifted,


The Ugandan parliament has approved a supplementary $37m loan from the African Development Bank for a road project linking Rwanda, Uganda and DRC. The project comprises a two-lane asphalt road running from Kabale and Kisoro in Uganda to Cyanika in Rwanda and Bunagana in DRC.

Road construction is expected to start in May and last for 36 months to cover the 98km. The roads has been identified under the Preferential Trade Area as a feasible and viable road in the region, it will also pass through a mineral rich area with huge deposits of iron ore in Muko (Uganda).

A roadblock 10km south of Goma on the road linking Goma to Sake has finally been lifted. According to the military, the blockade had been established in order to prevent the infiltration of bandits and militiamen in Goma from Masisi. However, many people believed the blockade was used to levy an illegal tax.

CEAR believes that the construction of new transport infrastructure will serve as a valuable circuit breaker of peace by linking the region economically and socially. The disappearance of roadblock will also ease travelling in the region and help reducing transport cost.

Warning Level: 5

Zone 2: EAC-Lake Sango Triangle

Descriptive Summary:

Border area surrounding Lake Sango (Victoria) The area has not been the site of hostile large scale armed action.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

This area is characterized by border conflict over access to fish resources. There are also common threats from illegal activities of flow of small arms, cattle thefts, and smuggling of stolen automobiles and other items.


Current Status:

Human Insecurity


Tanzania starts Rift Valley Fever vaccination campaign


The Tanzanian government has announced that a first batch of 500,000 livestock vaccines has arrived in the country and will be distributed to various districts at risk.

The vaccination campaign started immediately after the vaccine was received from South Africa. The affected regions of Arusha, Manyara, Kilimanjaro, Morogoro and Tanga are currently the priority areas of vaccination.

Meanwhile, in Dodoma one person has died and five other been admitted to hospital because of what is believed to be RVF. Blood samples have been sent to laboratories to identify whether or not it was RVF.

Kenya is still heavily affected by the disease and the meat industry continues to be hard hit with significant economic impact on cattle owners. The price of a cow is reported to have plummeted and is now only one fifth of the price before the RVF outbreak.

Inland lake shrinking threatens fishermen livelihood, could reduce energy supply


Three inland lakes and a water reservoir for hydro power generation in Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions are among the shrinking water bodies in Tanzania. Natural and human-induced causes are to blame for the shrinkage. The Minister of State in the Vice President’s office in charge of environment Prof. Mark Mwandosya has declared that urgent action is needed in order to stop further shrinkage.

Lake Jipe is believed to have shrunk by 60 percent since 1970 and 8,000 of the 10,000 fisherman have abandoned fishing. The majority of the remaining fishermen have migrated to the Nyumba ya Mungu Dam, about 40km south of the lake, and have further strained the fragile ecology.

The weeds that had choked Lake Jipe have now spread to the adjacent Nyumba ya Mungu dam since the two lakes are within the same drainage basin and are only 20 to 30 kilometres apart. This could negatively impact  Tanzanian energy supply as two major electricity hydro plants in Hale and Pangani could be effected. This could further affect human insecurity because Hale and Pangani power plant supply up to 20% of Tanzania’s electricity.

Low water level is also likely to cause power cuts in Uganda. Rising demand, estimated at 1,400 new customers every month, and insufficient water levels at Kiira and Nalubale power station are reducing energy distribution. While the two power plants produce up to 340 Megawatts in normal time, it is believed they will only be able to produce 120 Megawatts during the month of March.

ICGLR Projects

Various regional projects to be implemented


The African Development Bank has confirmed its commitment to support the construction of a regional power interconnectivity project. The project will connect Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. The Inter-connector is expected to pass Nakonde district from Pensulo substation in Serenje through Kasama on a 360 Kv line to Mbeya through Tunduma substation in Zambia, before crossing the Tanzanian border to Singida on to Arusha, then to Nairobi through Embakasi substation in Kenya.

The construction of the $90m Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya Inter-connector power line is expected to start this year after the completion of the Environmental Impact Assessment. In Uganda, the parliament has allowed the government to borrow $26.4m from the World Bank in order to improve infrastructure in the country and on the border. Among the projects to be covered by the loan is the opening of a railway line in eastern Uganda connecting Mbale, Tororo and Pachwak. Also included is the construction of an inland container terminal in Kampala as well as the setting up of a regional cargo tracking system. The loan will also help in harmonising border operations within the East African Community.

These projects should facilitate regional integration and reduce business costs and promote further regional cooperation.

Warning Level: 2

Zone 3:


Descriptive Summary:

The north eastern, north western Kenya, the south eastern Sudan and south western Ethiopia continue to be characterized by conflict among pastoralist groups, whose logic for socio economic reproduction revolves around movement in search of pastures and water alongside with extreme levels of cattle predation.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Tribal conflicts exist between the Karamajong, Pokot, Toposa and Turkana tribes. Weak or non-existent border security and state presence plagues part of this area as does a steady supply of weapons from Somalia and other areas. Drought has increased the risk of conflict in this area.

Current Status:


UPDF arrests Karamajong warriors


UPDF spokesman has confirmed that 20 Karamajong herdsmen have been arrested in Namalu Sub County and near Kotido in North-East Uganda. Two of those arrested in Kotido are believed to have taken part in the ambush that led to the strong response from the UPDF against the Karamajong. The Ugandan army spokesman has also declared that 17 guns have been recovered during the operation.

The two Karamajong accused of staging the ambush are to be judged before a Court Martial sitting in Moroto. The Court Martial has already sentenced nine so-called “Karachunas” that were involved in the fighting against UPDF to nine years of imprisonment.

Human Insecurity

EU aid to boost IDP food security


A project sponsored by the European Union and implemented by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) aims at improving the food security of IDPs in Northern Uganda. The agreement signed between the Prime Minister’s office and the EU representative will provide four million euros over three years in order to help 30,000 households improve their agricultural productivity. The projects will also help the IDPs return to their original area.

Warning Level: 1.5

Zone 4: The West-Nile Triangle


Descriptive Summary:

This area has been the site of conflict for decades. This includes the Sudanese Peoples’ Liberation Army against the Khartoum government with spill-over affect to Uganda, the LRA rebellion against the Ugandan government with spill-over affect in the DRC and South Sudan. 


Negative Security Actors/Factors:

There is possible use of the territories of South Sudan and the DRC as bases by the LRA. There is a lack of infrastructure to facilitate movement of troops and porous borders with minimum extension of state authority.  As a result of the delayed or failed disarmament process in the DRC, there is a steady flow of small arms and ammunition from the DRC into Zone 4.


Current Status:


LRA-UPDF ceasefire expires


The ceasefire agreement signed last year between the LRA and the UPDF has expired on the 28 February. Joseph Kony and Vincent Otti, LRA’s leaders, have refused to extend the truce as they believe that the Ugandan Government has stopped negotiating in good faith. The LRA has been reported to be moving westward and has now taken refuge in Garamba National Park in DRC and in Central African Republic (see Zone 5).

The UPDF had vowed not to resume fighting after the ceasefire expired. The UPDF commander had nevertheless ensured the population in Northern Uganda that they would not allow the LRA to return to Uganda. A late attempt by Acholi elders to get the LRA to resume negotiation has been in vain.

During these last weeks, South Sudan officials had expressed their discontent on the presence of LRA troops in their territory on multiple occasions. However, the Government of South Sudan had made it clear that the Sudanese army would not engage the LRA soldiers during the ceasefire.

On Thursday March 1st, the day after the ceasefire expired, LRA troops and a platoon of the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) exchanged fire near Tambura. The outnumbered JIU had to retreat and LRA troops looted the area, and two civilians are believed to have been killed by the LRA. The Government of South Sudan is expected to deploy more forces in Western Equatoria state in order to prevent further attacks from the LRA.

CEAR believes that in the coming weeks more and more clashes are likely to occur between scattered LRA troops and JIU or SPLA soldiers. The presence of the LRA could lead to further deterioration of Human Security because the local population could be discouraged from working in their fields.

Insecurity remains high in South Sudan


The governor of Eastern Equatoria state, Aloisio Ojetuk, has accused former SPLA soldiers of being responsible for the insecurity in the region. According to the governor, some SPLA soldiers have quit the army without handing in their guns and are currently engaging in cattle raiding and other illegal activities.

There is reportedly disagreement between the governors in Greater Equatoria in South Sudan on the issue of Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR). Governor of Western Equatoria state, Samuel Abujohn, has declared that a successful demobilisation campaign has been undertaken in his state, other governors from Eastern and Central Equatoria states have declared that disarmament would be difficult because some groups could take advantage to terrorise the population.

CEAR is concerned by the numerous militias and armed group, mainly composed of former SPLA soldiers, operating in South Sudan. There have also been accusations that some high-ranked officials are maintaining militias for their own personal use. Moreover, South Sudan still lacks a well trained and well equipped police, and they are for the moment out-numbered and outgunned by the militias. CEAR also believed that ethnic tensions could flare up in the region especially around the Dinka and Murle ethnic groups as well as remaining LRA troops.

Human Insecurity

Uganda, Sudan appeal for meningitis vaccines


The Ugandan government is finding it difficult to control the meningitis outbreak in its West Nile region because of insufficient vaccines stocks. As already reported in CEAR Vol 1.6, Uganda is currently facing a shortage of vaccines and is unable to carry out a large scale vaccination campaign. The Ugandan Health Ministry has been forced to make an appeal to the World Health Organisation in order to secure more vaccines.

The most affected districts in Uganda are Adjumani, Arua and Nyadri districts, which recorded 1 777 cases and 51 deaths, followed by Koboko (431 cases and 20 dead) and Yumbe (300 cases and 14 dead). A total of 158 cases have been reported in Kotido since the beginning of the outbreak, including 10 deaths.

The epidemic has also spread to neighbouring Sudan where 1 800 cases and 172 deaths have already been reported. According to the UN Humanitarian Office in Sudan, the meningitis epidemic is currently spread over eight states. The spread has been facilitated by the stabilisation of the Situation in Southern Sudan which has allowed the population to move more freely. The South Sudan government has also made an appeal for 800 000 new vaccines doses.


ICLR Projects

DRC government to collaborate with Uganda to fight foreign rebel groups operating inside Congo


A joint cross-border security and trade meeting between Ugandan and Congolese military, intelligence and political leaders was held on the Uganda-Congo border last week. The parties involved in the meeting have expressed their readiness to collaborate in order to fight against rebel groups operating in the DRC.

Congolese officials have also recognised the presence of the Allied democratic Front (ADF) and the National Army for the liberation of Uganda (NALU) rebels in their country. Earlier in February, the DRC government, through Denis Kalume the Interior Minister, had also agreed to collaborate with its Ugandan counterpart on the presence of LRA fighters in DRC.

The leaders of the Congolese delegation, Jean Jacques Rousseau Kapele, and of the Ugandan delegation, Wilson Isingoma, have agreed to collaborate by sharing information on the rebel groups and military intelligence.
The question of cooperation on the protection and conservation of Lake Albert and Lake Edward was also discussed during the meeting.

Landmines clearing operation in South Sudan


The UN mission in Sudan (UNMIS) has declared that thousands of landmines and other explosives have been destroyed by UN de-miners and other specialised agencies. The UN Mine Action Office (UNMAO) has secured $56m in order to clear mines in South Sudan. The main focus of the operation will be to expand the areas cleared and conduct a follow-up on mine risk education efforts. UNMAO also plans to train its Sudanese partners in de-mining action.

According to a UNMIS spokesman, 1,150 anti-tank mines, around 2,600 anti-personnel mines and over 500,000 pieces of other ordnance have already been destroyed. However, this is believed to represent only one third of the explosives in South Sudan.

More oil is found in Lake Albert, construction of a pipeline discussed


Over 60 million barrels of oil had already been found in Mputa1 and Waraga1 oil wells near Kaisotonya area, and this week the Ugandan Minister of Energy, Daudi Migereko, has confirmed that more oil has been found in Lake Albert. The new find has been made in the Kingfisher area but the amount of oil is still to be disclosed.

A meeting between Ugandan Energy Ministry officials and their Rwandan counterparts has resulted in an agreement to extend a regional pipeline that would connect Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. Future extensions to Burundi and DRC have also been discussed.

The extension of the pipeline to Kigali is expected to start in 18 months and will be contracted by Tamoil. A feasibility study to establish the economic cost of extending a pipeline to serve Rwanda, Burundi and Congo will also be carried out.


Warning Level: 4

Zone 5: River Oubangui Corridor


Descriptive Summary:

It is a significant frontier convergence. CAR’s border with the DRC is separated by the Oubangui River that has lacked adequate border supervision because of civil wars in DRC, CAR and Sudan. This factor has facilitated smuggling activities, trafficking of arms and cross border insurgence with ethnic affiliations shared on all sides of the border. This zone equally experiences poaching activities to include elephants in the CAR.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Known armed elements in this area comprise the LRA, Mbororo Nomads, and armed poachers. Lack of extension of state authority includes only 8 security posts along DRC-CAR border. CAR has 1200 km of border with Sudan with only three border posts. Like the frontier with DRC, CAR has had to deal with refugees and circulation of small arms from Sudan

Current Status:


LRA troops already inside CAR


As reported in CEAR Vol 1.6, LRA troops have entered CAR territory. Since they departed from their assembly points in South Sudan, LRA troops have divided into two major group one heading to DRC and the Garamba National Park while a second group was moving westward from South Sudan and took refuge some 30km South of Tambura. It is now believed that these two groups have now entered CAR territory by following the Namatina River. The LRA groups do not only comprise fighters but include some non-combatants such as women and children used by the LRA for various tasks.

LRA troops are considered to be responsible for the looting of various dispensaries in Namutina and other neighbouring payams (districts) in Western Equatoria State in South Sudan. Western Equatoria State officials have also accused the LRA of being responsible for killing two people near the border town of Source Yubu. State officials in South Sudan have also accused some Equatoria tribes of having provided assistance to LRA troops.

Ugandan officials have already established official contacts with the CAR government in order to discuss the LRA issue.

Moreover, reports of renewed fighting in the North-eastern part of CAR may further complicate the situation. The Union of Democratic Forces for Unity attacked the town of Birao where French troops are currently stationed. The rebel group had been controlling Birao between October and December 2006. Fighting in the North-East has already displaced many and threatened Human Security in the region.

Warning Level: 3


Zone 6: Equator Triangle


Descriptive Summary: These states are emerging from internal conflicts and are afflicted by an influx of small arms, smuggling activities of timber and minerals.


Negative Security Actors/Factors: There is lack of extension of state authority to border areas.

Current Status:

Human Insecurity

Illegal logging continues in DRC


Greenpeace has released a statement accusing ITB of engaging in illegal logging in North-West DRC. The environmental NGO has accused ITB of operating in the Tumba Lake region which is considered a natural habitat for the local wildlife. Greenpeace has also stressed the fact that the two logging permits acquired by ITB in 2002 were in breach of the moratorium on development in the primary forests in the Congo Basin.

Warning Level: 1


Zone 7: The Atlantic Triangle


Descriptive Summary:

After a long civil war, the security situation has continued to improve significantly.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Currently, there are no active armed groups. The triangle suffers from land mines planted during the conflicts that engulfed the Republic of Congo and Angola. Like other zones, the long borders continue to constrain states from extending full state authority, although there are border accords signed in 1999 involving the DRC, Angola and the Republic of Congo on the management of border security.

Current Status:

No significant changes. Situation is stabilising

Warning Level: 1.5

Zone 8: The Benguela Corridor


Descriptive Summary:

The corridor lacks adequate modern infrastructure for border control purposes. The end of the Angolan civil war, which culminated in the signing of an accord with UNITA, in April 2002, has created a peaceful environment.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Security risks include the presence of land mines and armed bandits.

Current Status:

Current Status: 


Measures adopted to dissuade recently expelled  Congolese from returning to Angola


Various measures from radio programmes to increased security have been implemented near the Angolan border to dissuade the Congolese that have been recently expelled from returning to Angola. Local administration had already decided to send to prison anyone trying to cross the border to Angola illegally.

Police, militaries and officers of the Direction Générale des Migrations have increased the number of patrol along the border. Night-patrols have also been established. Agricultural projects have also been encouraged.

However, candidates for a return in Angola have not been discouraged by these measures. Many still consider going back to Angola to make a living in the diamond trade and will continue attempting to escape the difficult conditions they face in DRC.

Mixed enquiry Commission to investigate Angolan incursion

An enquiry commission has been set up in order to investigate last week’s Angolan incursion in DRC territory. The Angolan and the DRC governments have agreed to establish a commission that will include civilians and military investigators drawn from the two countries.

Last week Congolese officials had asked their Angolan counterparts to explain the presence of Angolan armed men inside ten districts of Kahemba territory. At that time Angolan officials had denied any knowledge of the incursion. The Angolan men where still reported to be in these districts at the beginning of this week.

Warning Level:  1.5

Zone 9: Lake Tanganyika Corridor

Descriptive Summary:

It is characterized by a long border of both land and lake. State surveillance is limited. This factor has enabled non-state actors to smuggle arms into Burundi with ease. The zone is characterized by the problem of refugee flows, armed groups and landmines along Burundi’s frontier with Tanzania.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Burundi has 17 border posts, which it considers to be inadequate. Currently, there are four border posts between Zambia and Tanzania. Out of the four, only two are operating with full capacity.

Current Status:

ICGLR Projects

25 000 Congolese already repatriated from Tanzania


Since the repatriation campaign orchestrated by UNHCR started in October 2005, 25,000 Congolese have returned to their homeland. The 25,000 level was reached when 484 returnees arrived in South Kivu after having been ferried across Lake Tanganyika.

The UNHCR programme for the returnees also includes projects aimed at helping the former refugees to make a livelihood. Training in various income-generating activities and micro-credit are made available to the returnees. The current UNHCR programme final goal is to repatriate 45,000 Congolese refugees from Tanzania as well as thousands from other neighbouring countries.

Warning Level: 1.5

Zone 10: Zone CEPGL


Descriptive Summary:

The zone is volatile. Underlying its volatility is the weak ability of states to monitor border movements. Rebel groups opposed to Rwanda and Burundi cross the DRC border with impunity.  There exists a need for border demarcation especially between Burundi and Rwanda. Peace Accords among the DRC, Rwanda, and Burundi on security issues have reduced tension among them to a very large extent. In the meantime Burundi has become a full participant of the Tri-Partite Agreement on Regional Security in the Great Lakes. 

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

There are FDLR/FOCA and the National Liberation Front (FNL) rebels opposed to the regimes in Rwanda and Burundi respectively. While the FDLR has fixed bases, the FNL is transitory, and they have cooperated in joint operations against the two states. Arms are smuggled: in addition, landmines along the Ruzizi River are a critical issue.

Current Status:

Human Insecurity

Food security deteriorating in Burundi


Floods during the months of January and February have disturbed the agricultural production in Burundi. Large areas of cultivated land have been destroyed by the torrential rains. It is now believed that one fourth of the Burundian population is in need of food relief and with increased reports of malnutrition and deaths.

According to news reports, school are closing because they can no longer provide food to the students. High numbers of children abandoning school have been reported from Ndava, Nyabihanga and Kayokwe. Sources have also disclosed that Burundians have started taking refuge in Tanzania because of the famine in Burundi and there is an internal migration towards the cities and less affected areas.

World Food Programme officials have declared that they are providing urgent food relief to 400,000 people in Cankuzo, Kirundo, Karusi, Muyinga, Ngozi and Kayanza, but that many more remain at risk. The WFP has established that Burundi is facing an annual deficit amounting to 300,000 tons of food that are still to be covered by the agricultural production or food relief provided by international agencies.

Eviction on political basis continues


President Nkurunziza continues to remove state officials linked to Hussein Radjabu’s faction. According to sources, the president of the National Assembly, Immaculée Nahayo, considered to be loyal to Hussein Radjabu, is currently being confronted by Onésime Nduwimana, the Vice-President of the Assembly and could soon leave her position.

As the President of the National Assembly is constitutionally the successor of the President of the Republic, CEAR believes that Nkurunziza is trying to make sure that his faction will control the post. Moreover, Immaculée Nahayo is believed to be the one who launched a petition against the ousting of Hussein Radjabu from the CNDD-FDD.

There are also reports that some die-hard Radjabu followers have taken refuge in Eastern DRC. Among those who are believed to have crossed Lake Tanganyika are: Dieudonné Ngowembona, Maj. Jean Petit Nduwima and Karenga Ramadhan.

CEAR is also concerned by the continuing ousting of any opponents of the Nkurunziza faction from governmental offices. Unconfirmed information collected by CEAR indicate that the removal of Radjabu supporters is not limited to the top-level jobs but is also happening at lower levels and even concerns school directors and finance inspectors. CEAR believes that Burundi could continue to experience political instability and this may hinder the economic and social transition.

Warning Level: 3

Zone 11: The Kagera Triangle


Descriptive Summary:

This zone is generally calm. The frontiers are porous and lacking surveillance equipment and human resources. Border demarcation between Uganda and Rwanda and Uganda and Tanzania is complete.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

Smuggling activities are economic in nature and the most likely conflicts involve pastoralists, which develop over land issues. There are remaining refugee issues crossing into Tanzania and Uganda.

Current Status:

No changes to the report.


Warning Level: 1


Zone 12: Rusumo Triangle


Descriptive Summary:

This zone has stabilized since the elections in Burundi. The borders in this zone experience levels of smuggling activities, cattle rustling and motor vehicle thefts.

Negative Security Actors/Factors:

The zone suffers from land mines especially along the Burundi-Tanzania borders. The frontier between Burundi and Rwanda has sections that have not been demarcated, a factor that tends to foster conflicts among farmers across the frontiers.  There is also movement of refugees seeking to get to Burundi from Tanzania.

Current Status:

Human Insecurity

Rwandan evictees to be allowed to reclaim their properties


Negotiations are currently underway in order to allow Rwandans that had taken refuge in Tanzania and were returned to Rwanda to go back to Tanzania and reclaim their property. A Joint Technical Team has been established to facilitate talks between Rwandan and Tanzanian authorities to facilitate a solution to this situation.

Among the issues of concern for this joint Technical Team is the reunification of family members separated after the March 2006 return from Tanzania as well as the possibility for Rwandans to reclaim their personal property left in Tanzania. It has also been reported that after a three-month-limit, those who will not sold off their personal property will have their cases followed up through diplomatic procedures. Both governments have also agreed to provide transport to the returnees to facilitate the reclaiming process.

Rwandan and Tanzanian authorities are said to be considering a road map for the completion of the project and the two delegations agreeing that the operation should be completed by the end of July 2007

Warning Level: 1

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