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Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Zambia: Elections Uncertain: President Mwanawasa Loses Popularity in Polls Senior Researcher East Africa and Horn GLCSS On 28 September, the 3.9 million Zambian eligible voters are set to choose their president among five presidential contenders. However, as the elections near the future of President Mwanawasa becomes less certain. President Levy Patrick Mwanawasa, who is also State Counsel of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) is vying for his second term and faces a serious challenge from Michael Chilufya Sata of the Patriotic Front (PF) and Hakainde Hichilema of United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Other candidates include Ken Ngondo of the All People’s Congress Party (APCP) and Brigadier General Godfrey Miyanda of the Heritage Party (HP.) Early opinion polls released by Steadman Group Limited showed that only Michael Sata and Godfrey Miyanda are considered President Mwanawasa’s main challengers. The results of the research indicated that 33 percent of Zambians preferred the incumbent President Mwanawasa while 24 per cent went for Sata, and only 15 percent went for Hakainde, and seven per cent preferred other candidates. The same poll showed that 14 percent refused to respond and six per cent were undecided yet. However as the election date draws near, there is a noted shift in support. This Monday, Steadman Group Limited again reported that President Mwanawasa's popularity could be declining while his main challenger has gained support. The opinion poll showed Mwanawasa's popularity has dropped to 33% from 45% in a poll conducted in August. Sata's rating has risen to 24 percent from the 15 percent he received in the earlier poll. Hichilema, the presidential candidate for the UDA, which comprises three major political parties, FDD, UNIP and UPND, had also risen. President Mwanawasa’s drop in popularity is primarily attributed to worries about his health after he suffered minor stroke last March, and as well as dissatisfaction over his inability to handle Zambia’s growing problems. The three front runners will share the votes on the regional basis. President Mwanawasa is said to be popular in North-Western with 52 percent, followed by Hichilema with 11 percent and Sata 10 percent while other parties got eight percent. In Eastern Province, President Mwanawasa scored 34 per cent followed by Sata at 23 percent, Hichilema at 11 and others at seven per cent. While in Western Province, President Mwanawasa stood at 33 per cent, Sata at seven percent, Hichilema at 18 and other parties 13 per cent. The opinion poll reveals that President Mwanawasa is popular in the North Western, Central, Western, Eastern and Northern part while Sata is popular in Lusaka and Luapula and Hichilema is popular in the South. On the Copper belt, the margin is much narrower between the two frontrunners. Steadfast Group country manager, Moses Odhiambo, reported that from the research it was evident that President Mwanawasa was more popular in rural areas while the urban populace preferred Sata but the figures were likely to change given the 20 percent of people who were undecided at the time of the poll and others who did not respond. He noted that 20 per cent of eligible voters who were undecided could change the current scenario. The Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies is a London-based think tank. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by GLCSS at 3:36 AM |
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