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Monday, September 11, 2006
Misunderstood Tehran One thing that is not only possible but likely is that their choice of words is just a diplomatic way of saying that one side or the other has been forced to concede something to the other. From the media, we get the strong impression (rumors of a two-month suspension of Iran's nuclear program abound) that it was Larijani who 'blinked' first. That makes some sense. Iran is facing some stiff economic sanctions unless they back down or come to an agreement and with an estimated 40% of their population already living in poverty, economic sanctions may hit them hard; then again, they may not! There are many Arab countries who see Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as a hero (notably the first 'Persian' held in high regard by the Arabs in centuries). Ahmadinejad is, after all, saying things to Israel, the United States and Great Britain that they not only agree with but that they just may defy sanctions (under the table if necessary) to support. There are approximately 40 Latin American nations that take their cues from Cuba and, as a result, feel the same way. Sanctions are, of course, the 'stick!' If indeed Tehran has given away any negotiating ground it could be because of the 'carrot' -- a nice package of economic incentives being offered by the six-nation alliance on the other side of the negotiations. If Ahmadinejad is a clever enough negotiator, he knows he may get some of those economic incentives just for promising to do what he will probably not do . . . end Iran's nuclear program. In the end, it is most likely that the details of any final agreement (if one is even possible) will show that Tehran got more than it gave. Iran is, after all, the fourth largest oil supplier to the world oil market and, in a position like that, sanctions against Iran might hurt the ones imposing the sanctions more than it hurts the one being sanctioned. Today, in Vienna Austria, when the the 35-member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) assembled, it's Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei, reflected on the weekends events and said that ". . . the window of opportunity is not very long,'' but he indicated that he is hopeful that when the negotiations begin again next week some sort of accord will be reached. News Links: Iran, EU declare progress in nuclear program talks Iran optimistic after EU nuclear talks Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by Whymrhymer at 8:42 AM |
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1 Comments:
That 'carrot' was dangled in front of North Korea how long ago? And with what results?
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