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Tuesday, September 12, 2006
DR Congo Parliament Elections: Kabila Coalition Moves Ahead GLCSS The political deadlock continued this week in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) when the Election Independent Commission (CEI) published the final list of 500 parliamentarians from the 30 July elections. Neither of the two major parties gained a majority of the seats and this has confirmed GLCSS’ analysis that the new government will be ruled by a coalition. In reality, the election results mirrored the presidential voting. Kabila’s Alliance for Presidential Majority (AMP) came first with approximately 227 seats whereas Bemba’s Rally for Congolese Nationalists (RENACO) came second reportedly with some 114 seats. At stake is the appointment of the Prime Minister, who is appointed from the ranks of the Parliament’s majority party, and possibly the future of the DRC. The presidential political deadlock turns its attention to the two other top vote getters. Antoine Gizenga’s Unified Lumumbist Party (Palu) came third with some 34 seats. Fourth place is occupied by the Coalition of Congolese Democrats (Codeco) with some 30 seats, whose leader, Pierre Pay Pay, occupied numerous political posts including the leadership of DRC’s Central Bank under Sese Seko Mobutu’s rule and succeeded in wining a parliament seat from his home of Butembo, North Kivu. The first six political parties according to the parliament seats are as following: Kabila’s PPRD won 111 seats, Bemba’s MLC 64, Gizenga’s Palu 34, Movement for Social Renewal (MSR) 27, Forces for Renewal 26 and Ruberwa’s RCD won 15 seats. Vice President Z’ahidi Arthur Ngoma supporters have reportedly gathered some 8 seats. In addition, the DRC parliament will have 63 independent lawmakers. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports suggest that some Congolese originating from Kivu provinces created what they called ‘’Action Kivu Yetu’’ (Action our Kivu). This group, which is apparently against Kabila, includes Kivu Congolese originating from the Kivus and who live in the Kivus as well as other parts of the DRC and abroad. Their goal is to establish a voting block that reinforces their political importance in the upcoming elections. According to their political statement, the organization aims to provide accurate and verifiable information to the Congolese so they may make an informed decision in the next election. Action Kivu Yetu was reportedly officially launched on 2 September 2006 in London and is led by Remy Kisukula Abeli-Meitho as the president. There are also three vice presidents: Jean-Paul Rukengwa (South Kivu), Pasteur Shabani (North Kivu) and Laurent Mbangu (Maniema). The secretary and spokesperson of the organization is Guillaume Amisi Kilosho. If the reports are accurate, GLCSS believes the creation of Action Kivu Yetu is linked to a Bemba led movement to increase his votes in the Eastern DRC. There have been reports that the new organization has attacked Kabila’s image in the east while portraying Bemba as the future leader of the DRC. GLCSS interprets their calls for the Congolese to ignore their regional and linguistic differences as an effort by Bemba supporters to undermine Kabila. Nonetheless, considering that the DRC political scene has been dominated by regionalism, ethnic and linguistic differences, the strategy is unlikely to yield significant results. Likewise GLCSS expects the Kabila camp to counteract this strategy with an effort to win more votes from the west and especially Kinshasa, Bandundu, Equateur and Bas Congo, where he received limited support in the first round. GLCSS believes this will lead to three scenarios. For both AMP and RENACO to enter the run-off, coalitions are unavoidable as reported in our previous analysis. Both camps are reportedly busy wooing other politicians especially those who received a considerable number of votes both in the presidential election like Gizenga and in the Parliament like Pierre Pay Pay and others. Previous GLCSS Weekly News and Analysis described possible coalitions and it maintains that forecast. The PPRD-dominated Parliament is likely to face a strong MLC-led opposition. In addition, Gizenga’s support to one of the second round candidates will possibly increase his votes. Similarly in the Parliament Gizenga’s Palu and Pay Pay’s Codeco are the first coalition targets of both AMP and RENACO because they secured a considerable number of seats in the Parliament. However GLCSS still believes Gizenga is the most influential politician and will play an important role in the upcoming elections and Parliament. In the first and most likely scenario, if Gizenga decides to join Kabila’s AMP the coalition will be stronger and will dominate the Parliament because Gizenga’s additional seats and support could push independent parliamentarians and those from smaller political parties into the majority AMP camp to gain favor with the ruling coalition. In essence, the combined total of the AMP and Palu seats would give a clear majority of an estimated 261 seats. This would allow the AMP to appoint the Prime Minister and rule the government. In the second and least likely scenario Palu may join Bemba’s RENACO and this increases the number of its seats from some 114 to more than 144. This would make the opposition stronger and limit AMP domination in decision making in the Parliament. A third scenario may present the strongest challenge and produce a deadlocked Parliament. In this scenario, Gizenga’s Palu decides to make a third bloc in the Parliament. GLCSS believes this scenario is possible in case Gizenga wants to show that he is also able to be independent from both Kabila and Bemba at least in the Parliament where he is not obliged to join one or the other camp. His political background indicates that once he decides to do so he may be joined by other parliamentarians, both independent and from some other political parties, especially those having similar political ideologies like Lumumbist and Nationalist parties. The fact that Palu secured 34 seats without being in any coalition may influence the party to form another alliance in the Parliament and provide a challenge to both Kabila and Bemba. Regardless of this third scenario, it appears most likely that the number of AMP seats will grow, even without Gizenga’s support. It is for this reason that GLCSS continues to predict that Kabila’s AMP will gain the majority seats in the Parliament and, therefore, control the government. The Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies is a London-based think tank. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by GLCSS at 3:08 AM |
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