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Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Burundi: Ceasefire Agreement Signed Amidst Political Chaos Researcher, GLCSS In what appears to be an end to a long history of insecurity orchestrated by a hard-line rebel movement, this week’s signing of a ceasefire agreement between the National Liberation Forces (FNL) and the Burundian government has raised hope and optimism for the stability of Burundi. The signing of the ceasefire agreement comes at a time when Burundi’s political landscape is facing significant challenges. Prior to signing the ceasefire agreement, there were fears that the resignation of the country’s second Vice President Alice Nzomukunda would hamper the peace process. The political crisis currently shaping the country’s administrative set up threatened to divert the attention of the negotiators from the peace talks to focus on the internal situation evolving in the country. The landmark ceasefire agreement has been hailed as a positive step in the struggle to achieve lasting peace in the country. President Museveni, who is the chairman of the Regional Peace Initiative on Burundi, said that Burundi has embraced democratic channels of resolving issues. The United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan also called on both sides to implement the agreement and try to consolidate peace. Sources close to the peace talks in Dar es Salaam say the rebels have been given an option to either integrate in the national army or demobilize. However, this is likely to be delayed as assembly points where the rebels will converge have not yet been identified. United Nations' Operation in Burundi (ONUB), in charge of monitoring the ceasefire, is expected to play a role in helping both sides set up the assembly areas. Among the many dividends of the ceasefire agreement, if implemented, will be the disarmament of the rebels which is expected to speed up the disarmament of civilians, who have been using the FNL threat as a pretext for refusing to hand over their weapons to the authorities. GLCSS, like other regional analysts, remains skeptical at the seriousness of both parties to respect the agreement. This is based on earlier agreements that have not been honored. Some sources say the FNL has been pressured to sign the accord and that many of its conditions were not met. As previously reported by GLCSS, a major stumbling block in the negotiations leading up the current agreement concerned the army. The rebels FNL said it did not want to integrate its forces into the army as it was presently constituted. On the other hand, the government wanted to solve the FNL problem militarily and has been carrying out military operations to flush out the rebels in most provinces. During these operations, the security forces have been accused of committing human rights violations. Some people were reportedly detained and even executed while in detention, just because they were suspected of being FNL combatants or supporters. Although the war seems to be headed for a final resolution, political tension is persisting and threatening to turn Burundi into another example of the region’s hotspots. President Nkurunziza’s government is facing internal conflict with the recent coup plot allegations threatening to split his administration. With key political figures behind bars and Vice-President Alice Nzomukunda tendering in her resignation, the next course of action is uncertain. Although the political storm seems to have settled, Burundian politicians continue to express their disapproval of Nzomukunda’s replacement. After parliament endorsed Marina Barampema as the country's new second vice-president, her appointment was instantly questioned. Reportedly, opposition members of parliament from the former ruling Hutu Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU) and from the Tutsi Unity for National Progress (UPRONA) boycotted her confirmation vote to protest the parliamentary procedures used and termed her election invalid. Opposition parties claimed that parliament lacked the required 78-member quorum for a vote. Finally, GLCSS believes that the inclusion of the FNL into the government could further destabilize the government because of its ethnic divisionism strategy and views. It also adds another Hutu party to dispute President Nkurunziza’s legitimate mandate. The Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies is a London-based think tank. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by GLCSS at 3:25 AM |
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