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Monday, August 21, 2006
Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda South Sudan Food Security Update and Analysis GLCSS There is marginal improvement in food security situation in the most parts of Central and East African countries. This followed the rains in April up to June which improved crops and grazing in the region. However aid workers warn that though rains may have eased a severe drought across East Africa, millions still face hardship and will take herders years to recover from the decimation of their livestock. According to Food and Agriculture Organization’s July 2006 Crop Prospects and Food Situation Report, in Kenya, the 2006 long season provided adequate rainfall throughout the main growing areas of Rift Valley Province, and increased the potential for a good cereal and maize harvest. In addition, improved pasture and a good harvest from the “short-rains” period increased the overall food supply. However, food security in pastoral areas remains critical, and livestock herds have just begun to recover from drought conditions. The end of June however marked the beginning of the second annual dry spell in the pastoral and marginal agricultural zones, and it is expected to last until mid-October. The U.S. Agency for International Development’s Food Early Warning System (FEWS), warns that next few months will be critical in consolidating gains achieved during the recently concluded “long-rains” season. If the October to December short-rains are poor, livelihood and humanitarian crises similar to what was experienced during the previous short-rains season are likely to re-emerge. But a good harvest in key growing areas could help to moderate market cereal prices though household purchasing capacities among drought-affected farm households remain low. The short rains season expected between October and December are likely to consolidate the beginning of recovery process among the pastoral hoods. In Uganda, harvests continue with high demand, but there has been no significant price decline observed yet. Supplies of crops to major district markets continue to be normal, benefiting from the ongoing bimodal first season. According to a recent assessment by the World Food Program (WFP), in Gulu district the gradually improvements in civil security increased the mobility of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and their access to arable land led to increased agricultural production activities, assisted by inputs provided by humanitarian organizations. The assessment found that more than 75 percent of IDPs now consume near normal amounts of food, but 25 percent households are unable to access adequate food and their main source of food remains food aid, and petty trade and off-farm income earning opportunities remain limited. Districts in central, eastern and western Uganda are on record for maintaining bean and maize flows to major consumption markets such as Kampala. It is observed that market supply of maize grain is gradually picking up as the harvest progresses, although moisture levels remain relatively high in some places and thus requires some attention, especially for crops to be stored over a long period. The Department of Meteorology’s updated medium range forecast for July - August 2006, dry conditions are expected to prevail over most of western and south western Uganda, while rains are forecast to return in northern Uganda. The region of Karamoja warrants attention as food security remains fragile for pastoral and agro-pastoral households who have no cereal stocks and those without livestock to sell to earn income for food purchase. Therefore the region’s food security will continue to depend on normal production out of the current single cropping season but the resumption of rains in July could avert this situation. Nevertheless this will depend on continued rains which could revive pastures and fodder to stem any possibility of an early exodus of the pastoralists to dry season grazing areas in neighboring Districts of Lira, Katakwi, Soroti, Kumi and Kapchorwa, Also the reported increase of foot and mouth disease (FMD) incidence in Uganda threatens the availability of livestock products such as milk and meat. The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries has indicated that about 20 districts in the “cattle corridor” of central, southern and western Uganda are so far affected by FMD. This is attributed to return of infected Ugandan livestock expelled from northern Tanzania, where the disease is not strictly monitored and controlled. The area has been now quarantined to reduce movement of livestock from or into highly susceptible or infected areas, as well as a ban on sale of livestock and livestock products. In Rwanda, national food security has improved considerably as season “B” harvests, which run from February to July, continue. Preliminary results from the Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources (MINAGRI) led harvest assessment mission indicate that season 2006 “B” national crop production will largely meet most of the food requirements for the second semester 2006 (July – December 2006). However most food commodity prices did not decrease significantly as usually expected during the harvest period. In Kigali city markets, the net food price index calculated for maize, rice, sorghum, beans, cassava flour, Irish and sweet potato, and bananas continued to rise, as has been the trend since January. Compared to the same prices, last year, prices in Kigali are on average 21 percent higher with the greatest increase noted in sorghum (82 percent) and sweet potatoes (73 percent). High prices are partially attributed to the reduced production of the root and tuber crops and the interventions by authorities who encouraged farmers to store their harvests at community level, and banned selling the product to unauthorized traders who usually offer a very low price. In another analysis, FEWS NET, reports that pockets of food insecurity will remain in chronically vulnerable zones with high population densities and poor soil fertility. Some of these areas are in districts of Rusizi, Nyamagabe, Huye, Gisagara, Nyaruguru and Gakenke. Though the quarantine due an outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease last year in parts of Gatsibo district in Western province and Kayonza district of the Eastern Province has been lifted and food security has improved. Parts of Nyagatare district in the Eastern Province have been placed under quarantine due to FMD outbreak there, so these sectors are potentially highly food insecurity. Tanzania on 14 March 2006 launched Drought Preliminary Appeal against a backdrop of drought which severely compromised the food security of the country’s rural population and water and pasture availability. But now harvests of maize and beans are underway in southern high lands of Tanzania, and prices of these foods have begun to fall. The Regional Agricultural Trade Intelligence Network (RATIN) reports that Tanzanian maize price are generally lower than prices in neighboring Kenya and Uganda. This indicates a need for monitoring the flow of exports from Tanzania to neighboring countries since excessive outflows contributed to food shortages in the country during 2005 and early months of 2006. According to the Livestock Information Network and Knowledge System (LINKS) and Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), the availability of forage has improved markedly in most of Tanzania during the past month, and is normal to above normal in southern and southwestern pastoral areas and in the Engassument area south of Arusha. On the other hand pasture conditions remain poor in the Engare area bordering Nairobi, Kenya. It is advised to look into ways of identifying areas where the pastoralists can move with their herds when the condition worsens. Forage conditions are likely to deteriorate in most pastoral areas of Tanzania in the next two months. The deterioration will be rapid in the central and northern parts, worsening the already precarious pasture situation. Though recent rains provided relief to pastures in the northeastern and central zones of the country, forecasts indicate that by the end of this month, pasture will have been depleted for all but small animals (goats and sheep) and hence calling for relief intervention. In southern Sudan, the rains have performed well throughout this season, but the impact of below-normal rains in Western and Northern Bahr El Ghazal States in June on planting has not yet been determined. There is however reported Food security improvement in the two season’s agricultural areas. Though the main season started in June, the May to September hunger season is ongoing, and crops are expected to be harvested from September through November. Nonetheless, reports from various locations in the single season agricultural areas continue to suggest that households may be coping better with this year’s hunger season than in previous years, mainly due to improved access to markets, availability of low-cost Government of South Sudan (GoSS) subsidized sorghum, timely food aid distributions and increased availability of seasonal agricultural employment following expansion of land under cultivation by large-scale farmers. But the main areas of concern include eastern Jonglei State, suffering from continuous insecurity since the beginning of 2006, and Mvolo County, where a related conflict has displaced up to 10,000 people. Others include several pockets of inter-ethnic conflict in Lakes and Warrap States, and lawlessness in Yei and will thus require government intervention. Also another area of concern is Eastern Flood Plains Zone where some households could not take full advantage of the June-September growing season due to disruption rooted in recurring the disarmament related conflict since the beginning of 2006. The Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies is a London-based think tank. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by GLCSS at 9:06 AM |
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