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Monday, August 28, 2006
Kenya Political Analysis: Mixed Signals Ahead of 2007 Polls East African Editor GLCSS The long-promised constitutional reforms once again threaten to derail Kenyan politics. Nearly 11 months after the failed bid to install a new constitution, Kenya remained fixed on the issue of when the constitutional reforms will be executed. The current point of contention pits two political groups against each other. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) which believes minimum reforms should take place before the 2007 polls on one hand and President Kibaki’s camp which wants comprehensive reforms to be held after the elections. In an attempt to resolve both views, a consultative meeting convened on Tuesday brought together representatives of the key political parties, but the meeting ended in controversy. Justice Minister Martha Karua said, at the end of the meeting, that the parties that included KANU, the LDP, Ford-People, NARC-Kenya and Safina agreed to form a sub-committee to decide on whether to go for minimum or comprehensive reforms; however, this was immediately disputed. Another group of MPs hurriedly convened a meeting and accused Karua of insincerity and deliberately not reporting that the meeting had agreed that there was not enough time for comprehensive reforms and that urgent minimum reforms were necessary. "The consensus among all present members is that a comprehensive review of the constitution is not possible. It is also agreed that there is need for some kind of minimum legal, administrative and constitutional reforms," KANU Chairman Uhuru Kenyatta said, reading from a statement. President Kibaki’s rule has been under mounting criticisms for failing to rein in rampant corruption and dominated by continued criticisms from opposition political parties, which had helped him come to power. In the last year, his government suffered an embarrassing defeat in a doomed draft constitution vote, which he had promised after his 2002 election, but has failed to deliver. Kibaki’s opposition, the Orange Democratic Movement, is pushing for minimum reforms on affirmative action, the autonomy of Parliament, a powerful Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK), the right to dual citizenship and funding for political parties. Kibaki’s government has accused the ODM of calling for minimum reforms only for political reasons. "They want to push for creation of the posts of prime minister, his deputy and assistants and share these seats prior to elections to remain united," said Energy Assistant Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri. It is likely that in the coming months, there will be a shift of alliances between different political parties. The ODM movement has already moved to register as a political party called ODM-Kenya. This recognizes that the ODM name, which they popularized during last year's referendum on a new Constitution, has gained status as a recognized opposition to Kibaki. It is also planning a series of countrywide rallies to publicize calls for the government to agree to a series of changes to the Constitution before the elections are held. Although President Kibaki has not yet announced whether he will seek re-election in the December 2007 polls, most observers expect him to stand for a second five-year term. His open association with NARC-K and supporting its candidates in Nakuru, while disowning NARC in last month’s by-election, has been widely believed to be the President’s vehicle for a second term. This scenario appears most likely given the fact that NARC, a coalition which brought him to power, is in reality dead following last month’s by-elections, where its most prominent candidates lost to NARC-K candidates. Observers contend that NARC-K is just a rebirth of the Democratic Party of President Mwai Kibaki which also appears to have been crippled. As the electoral fever continues to determine the political direction the country should take, different political parties are realizing the necessity of forging an alliance. Three political parties, the 46 year old KANU, the LDP and Labor Party of Kenya, have agreed to transform the Orange Democratic Movement into a full-fledged political party called ODM-Kenya. This move could heighten the demands for minimum reforms on the constitution before the elections. It also shifts the political landscape and reduces next year’s presidential election to a two-horse race with NARC-Kenya. The ODM-Kenya party could however face legal challenges, in case the ODM Party of Kenya, which was registered after the referendum on the proposed constitution last year, decides to sue it in court seeking legal redress for using its name. Another point of concern is this marriage of convenience between KANU and LDP. The historical background between the two has been a point of conflict because, whereas LDP only emerged five years ago, KANU boosts its fortunes and subsequent prestige by claiming to be the oldest and most illustrious political party in Kenya. KANU chairman Uhuru resolving to join ODM, which he had dismissed as an amorphous, ethnic-driven body that lacked structures and political goals, has been interpreted by his critics as one of the most difficult political decisions he has taken after conceding defeat in the 2002 Presidential elections. Moi, last year, also said that joining ODM was rooting for KANU’s identity and stressed that the Party’s identity would be lost if it joins it. Therefore it remains to be seen how Moi and other KANU faithful react to Uhuru’s decision. It should be mentioned however that previously key party officials aired the necessity of KANU joining ODM. "It is my feeling that KANU on its own can never and will never win elections. We have told Uhuru and we have talked to those close to Moi. ODM must be revived and revived vigorously," remarked Okemo, the MP for Namable, adding that KANU must structure itself and prepare to work with LDP and that if the chairman or the former President does not want that, they would leave them behind. In summary, it appears that only ODM-Kenya and NARC-K will compete in the run off of the next year general elections, but it remains to be seen if new alliances will be formed between other political parties given that Kenya has about 50 registered political parties. The ODM-Kenya will be forced to provide more concessions to its affiliate parties before it can become relevant. In effect, if it is launched next month as expected, this will witness transfers of the ‘big boys’ titanic tussles including Raila, Kalonzo, Ruto, Musalia and Uhuru who have all declared their ambitions for the Presidency from their respective parties. At the end, this will be one of their political milestones. The Great Lakes Centre for Strategic Studies is a London-based think tank. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by GLCSS at 5:02 AM |
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