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Thursday, March 23, 2006
McCain Goes Hunting the Establishment This past February he picked off Mark McKinnon, the chief media advisor to Bush’s presidential campaigns. And just this week he got Terry Nelson, the former Political Director for Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. Given the animosity between the Bush and McCain camps since the 2000 presidential primaries, one has to wonder what’s going on, other than the chance to work for a candidate that’s likely to have a fat bankroll. While McCain’s not an official candidate yet, the same is true for all of the other potential candidates waiting in the wings. Good manners dictate waiting to officially become a presidential candidate until after the mid-term election passes. In other words, on November 8th we’ll have at least four or five announced candidates in the GOP field. But such niceties does not stop candidates from laying the groundwork early, if unofficially. With that in mind, and in hopes of achieving a better outcome this time, McCain has made the strategic decision to ditch the outsider status that he had when he ran against the establishment’s chosen candidate George Bush in 2000. This is evidenced by not only his recent hires, but also his steady wooing of local Bush loyalists, not to mention his frequent trips and fundraising on behalf of local party organizations and other political groups. In other words, we have a case of the outsider who wants to campaign as an insider. Usually it’s the other way around. Why is it different in his case? Because, for the most part, the “in crowd” can’t stand him and he has made a habit of doing things that reinforce such feelings. So who’s the “in crowd”? The Old Boys Club in the Senate for starters. These are guys that have to go along to get along with one another based on personality, and usually frown on showboating at the expense of others. McCain hogs a little too much limelight for their tastes. Then there are the economic conservatives that aren’t that thrilled with McCain’s lack of cooperation on the tax cutting front. And don’t forget the social conservatives, many of whom favor strict limitations on illegal immigration. At present, McCain is poorly positioned to make anyone in this group happy with his immigration reform plan, which will essentially end with the amnesty of virtually every illegal alien living in this country. Not to mention the fact that he’s cosponsoring it with Ted Kennedy. How’s that for a campaign brochure? And then there are the religious conservatives, especially those that favor a harder line on abortion related issues than McCain is comfortable taking. This crowd was none too happy with his participation in the Senate compromise that stopped the Republicans from dropping the hammer on the Democrat’s ability to filibuster judicial nominees. In the wake of Bush’s recent replacement of Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor with Samuel Alito, conservatives now see themselves as one seat away from a solid 5-4 majority on the high court. And they don’t see McCain as the guy who’ll help make that a reality should the next open seat occur on his watch. The problem with the insider strategy is that the media keeps referring to him as a maverick outsider. In fact, it’s a little difficult to find any significant media report that doesn’t refer to him with the phrase “maverick Senator John McCain”, or sometimes “maverick ‘Republican’ Senator John McCain”. The media loves this, as their primary reason for loving McCain is the fact that he is such a thorn in the flesh to George Bush and conservative Republicans. One wonders how complicit the media will be in selling his new makeover, since it is aimed at winning over the party and then the White House, which would mean four more years of Republican control. Look for the media to either not cooperate now, or certainly not cooperate later if he wins the nomination. While several polls of Republican voters have placed him at the head of a muddled field of potential candidates, he maintains little in the way of goodwill with the Republican rank and file that comprise the organizational structure of the party. This is to say nothing of organized conservatives that hold great sway in the party caucuses and primaries. Just ask McCain about his experience with conservatives in South Carolina in 2000. With this in mind, it is easy to see why he has decided to change his strategy. At this point the idea is, “If you can’t beat them, join them”. Time will tell if this is enough to overcome the fact that many of them just don’t like him. Drew McKissick is a Columbia, SC based political consultant. He maintains a blog at Conservative Outpost.
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