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Thursday, February 23, 2006
Kosovo and Montenegro: Two Sides, Same Coin, Big Gamble Rather than attempt to reach a deal for full independence straightaway with the EU and Belgrade, Montenegro has taken a staged approach -- opting first for autonomy and existence in a federation with Serbia. However, some Montenegrins still harbor dreams of something larger, and will vote April 30 on an independence referendum. The referendum requires approval by 55 percent of voters; thus far, only about 45 percent are believed to be in favor of the measure but Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic hopes that number will rise if Kosovo's bid for independence gains traction. Even if the referendum fails, however, politicians on both sides of the issue expect there could be a fight. The 55% solution itself is precarious. Serbia wants the EU to show firmness in the threshold it has set, but Montenegrins bristle. The EU Observer quotes Djukanovic: The decision belongs to the majority and not the minority. The EU's formula contains a virus which is dangerous to the stability of society when it comes to the implementation of the results. Setting aside the question of percentages, the broader question of independence for Montenegro will fall into an uncomfortable context if Kosovar independence, or something very close to it, is not settled by the end of April. How can we expect Kosovo to act if the Montenegrins are let out but the Kosovars are not -- particularly if Montenegro is granted independence on the strength of a Yes vote lower than what Kosovo could muster? The process behind the negotiated democratic solutions to Serbia's slow crisis can, in its contradictions, harm the legitimacy of the outcomes. Surely this comes as no surprise to the negotiators on the ground, whose primary task is to solve their own problem first and ask questions later. But the effect of sequence on the interrelation between Kosovar and Montenegrin independence needs fuller, broader coverage. The most significant effect the Montenegro referendum could have upon Kosovo is to eliminate the seeming exclusivity of the Kosovar case and undermine the rules to which Kosovo appeared to be the exception. If Kosovo is locked into Serbia but Montenegro is released, current pseudostates and aspiring states will see a moment of rule confusion which may not come again -- as opposed to seeing an independent Kosovo as the start of a bandwagon. There are enough reasons to understand Kosovo as a truly unusual case, whereas Montenegro is simply host to a Quebec-style peaceful secession movement. But their juxtaposition -- with a simple vote being the successful standard, and complicated negotiations the unsuccessful one -- would incline pseudo- and aspiring states to hold their own prompt elections and demand international adherence to the results. James G. Poulos writes at Postmodern Conservative. Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by James G. Poulos at 12:43 PM |
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