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Sunday, January 22, 2006
Running In Place Over Iran's Nuclear Program Knowing the irresoluteness of the vaunted international community when it comes to matters like this, the point of view of Iran’s madcap mullahs is bound to be something along the lines of, “Oh yeah? Well, you and whose army is gonna do something about it?” Of course, everybody knows whose army comes to mind, but that particular army is conspicuously occupied for the foreseeable future in Iraq and to a lesser extent in Afghanistan. Anybody else’s army simply can’t do the job or wouldn’t if it could. Therefore, end of column, it’s all hopeless, so let’s just move on to another issue. Nope, check that. While it would be far more amusing and less intellectually taxing to analyze something else, like the Golden Globe’s obsession with gay and transsexual themes this past year, it’s just not as pressing as the issue of an Israel-hating, trigger-happy, nuclear nut case on the loose in the Middle East. When a guy like Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that Israel needs to be wiped off the face of the map, and when supposed “moderate” Hashemi Rafsanjani is on record saying that “a single atomic bomb has the power to destroy Israel completely while an Israeli counterstrike can only cause partial damage to the Islamic world,” you have to sit up and take notice. But obviously, endless palaver, as the international community is so wont to engage in, won’t accomplish anything. So what are the least potentially catastrophic options worth considering, and for that matter, what are the consequences of doing nothing at all? To address the latter question first, the possibility of a nuclear exchange would become perhaps more likely than it was even during the Cold War. That stand-off between nuclear superpowers may have been scary, but at least the players, even the evil one (that would be the Soviet Union for those of you who are morally confused), were rational enough to want to avoid national suicide. The same might not be true of Iran, or at least the addlebrained ayatollahs running things. From their point of view, what’s the big deal about a nuclear exchange with Israel, for instance, when you believe that the absolute worst case scenario -- losing that exchange -- gets you a one-way ticket to paradise a little sooner than planned? As downsides go, that’s pretty easy to take. But the upside, the long awaited annihilation of Israel, is just pure ecstasy on earth. In other words, they just might go for it. That‘s obviously one of the worst case scenarios, but there are plenty of other concerns if Iran goes nuclear and here’s the short list. Iran being the world’s number one state sponsor of terrorism, it would make it more likely that nukes would find their way into the hands of apocalyptic terrorists out to destroy America and wreak havoc throughout the West. A nuclear Iran would destabilize the region even more than it already is with negative consequences for the world oil supply and therefore the world economy. And it would make other countries in the region clamor that much more to gain such weaponry themselves, thereby making the whole endeavor of nuclear nonproliferation a laughable exercise in futility. I could go on, but you get the idea. As for potential solutions to the problem, first off, you can forget about sanctions and various forms of world condemnation. Such things generally only work, if they work at all, against rational states, like South Africa, for instance. Iran simply doesn’t qualify. And then there’s the idea of covert subversion with the goal of sparking a revolutionary overthrow of the government by popular forces fed up with the dictatorial regime. If only. That might take years or never happen at all. Some think Israel will take care of the problem like they did with Saddam’s nuclear reactor back in ‘81, but Iran likely has its nuclear program dispersed throughout hundreds of sites, making it far too difficult for Israel to handle. Which leads to what may be the only answer: a massive, coordinated U.S. air strike on every possible site that might conceivably be housing some part of Iran’s nuke program and lasting weeks if necessary. It’s a nightmarish scenario when you think about the unavoidable collateral damage, negative world opinion and the possibility that the entire Muslim world might go bananas, but could it really be any worse than the potential consequences of doing nothing? Even Senator Rodham Clinton is now saying that no option should be removed from the table when it comes to preventing Iran from going nuclear. If only the majority of civilized Western countries weren’t so paralyzed by irrational self-loathing and lack of moral and intestinal fortitude, the task of dealing with Iran could actually be relatively easy. The civilized countries could simply join together in magnificent multilateral solidarity and tell Iran they’re coming in to dismantle the program, whatever it takes. While Iran could give a lone cowboy country like America enough grief to make a unilateralist gambit a total nightmare, it couldn’t so easily defy the entire civilized world if it knew it was united and meant business. Ah, well, that’s just a phantasmagorical reverie on my part. I’d also like to buy the world a Coke and teach it to sing in perfect harmony, but that’s not going to happen either. Sooner or later it will come down to military action. If not, then Iran bullies and connives its way into the nuclear club and the world gets a lot more complicated and dangerous. Greg Strange blogs at http://www.greg-strange.com Blogger News Network is advertiser-supported, and your visits to our advertisers help BNN to meet its expenses. Help keep us afloat! posted by Greg Strange at 10:29 PM |
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