This week’s Rasmussen Reports Democratic primary poll update shows Hillary Clinton slightly expanding her lead over Barack Obama, and still staying above 40% support in the poll. Clinton leads Obama 41%-23%. As has become the trend, Clinton continues to incrementally climb each month, while support for Obama remains flat. This is the fourth straight week that she has been at 40% or more. Although Clinton’s support is still three points less than it was a few weeks ago, she still enjoys the highest level of core support of any candidate in either party.
The bad news continues for the Obama campaign as they lost two points off of last week’s numbers and are now at 23%. This is the second time in the last three weeks that Obama has gotten less than 25% support. It has now been seven weeks since Obama has enjoyed the support of more than 25% of those surveyed. He hasn’t even had back to back weeks over 25% since the first two weeks of July. While Obama is still comfortably ahead of third place John Edwards, it would appear that he has not been able to convince enough voters that he belongs on the same level as Clinton.
John Edwards remains in third place with 13%. This is the third consecutive week that Edwards has been at exactly 13%. In 7 of the past 9 polls, Edwards has been at 13%. The two exceptions were back to back weeks where he was at 14%. Edwards hasn’t been over 14% since June 18, and in the seven months plus of weekly polling has never reached 20%. While Democrats like Obama and Edwards, they are committing to Clinton. Among the other candidates, Joe Biden has moved into fourth with 4%. Bill Richardson is fifth with 3%. Dennis Kucinich was sixth with 2%, and Chris Dodd and Mike Gravel were each at 1%. Eleven percent of likely Democratic primary voters were undecided.
Clinton’s strategy is simple. She wants to project the appearance of being presidential and a leader, while all the while portraying her main rival Obama as naïve and inexperienced. So far, it appears as if the strategy is working. Many Democratic voters are looking at Clinton as a name they know and trust. They don’t seem to be willing to take the chance on someone new. While this may make them feel good during the primaries, Democrats may pay a heavy price in November 2008 for nominating a candidate as divisive and polarizing as Clinton.
Jason Easley is the editor of the politics zone at 411mania.com. His news column The Political Universe appears on Tuesdays and Fridays at www.411mania.com/politics
Jason can also be heard every Sunday at 7:00 pm (ET) as the host of The Political Universe Radio Show at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/thepoliticaluniverse
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3 users commented in " Poll Update: Clinton leads by eighteen over Obama "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackYour analysis that the dems may “pay a heavy price .. for nominating someone as devisive and polarizing as Clinton,” of course may be true, but I think not.
I would rather see Hillary in the White House then her dem opponents for a variety of reasons including reperience. Beyond that though, I think her track record of moving voters to the positive column over the course of an election, and frankly the potential reality of the existence of a “hidden bias” against a blackman when in the privacy of the voting booth make me feeel that she is indeed the best dem choice. Yes, I know that there are otyher potential candidates beyond Hillary and Barack, but I’m afraid they all have too step a mountain to climb this time around.
Critique: Clinton’s ‘Invisible’ Touch
August 20, 2007
By Barbara Lippert
Clinton’s ad push is all about ‘visibility.’
NEW YORK It’s a four-month sprint to the Iowa Caucuses and Hillary Clinton has launched her “first” ad of the campaign, now running on her Web site and on TV in Iowa. Called “Invisible,” the not-so-invisible attack on President Bush is a new-fangled negative ad that somehow comes off as positive—half “Morning in America”/half “Man from Hope,” with a little FDR thrown in for good measure. It’s also the most presidential ad to come down the pike so far.
Open on Clinton walking in a field with an elderly gentleman in a cowboy hat, aviator sunglasses, plaid shirt and jeans (the ghost of Ronald Reagan?). The music soars and so does her voiceover, which is from an actual political speech she gave, images of which are interspersed with her speaking to a group of farmers, playing with a baby, reading to pre-schoolers, hugging a returning soldier: “As I travel around America, I hear from so many people who feel like they’re just invisible to their government.” There seems to be a little reverberation in her voice, like the famous FDR “nothing to fear but fear itself.” “If you’re a family who’s struggling without healthcare,” she continues, “if you’re a single mom trying to find childcare and I never thought I’d say this, but if you’re a returning soldier from Iraq or Afghanistan, you may be invisible to this president, but you’re not invisible to me.”
The spot is amazingly artful in hammering away at Bush without mentioning him by name. Instead, she keeps saying, “this president” and ends with, “They won’t be invisible to the next president of the United States.” This suggests you get her as the next president, but there’s always room for Bill, whose name remains unspoken.
This great ad is part and parcel of the way Clinton has run her campaign, which is consistently disciplined and on message. From the debates to her quips, she seems self-confident and in charge, not brittle or shrill.
There’s been a slow evolution in Clinton’s world, where people who were haters are slowly coming to see her in a different light. Her ad uses all the standard, old-fashioned political ad tactics (walking and talking in Iowa, giving stump speeches), but because she’s a woman running for president, it comes off as new.
There’s an almost subliminal suggestion that just as she runs a campaign, she’ll run the country. It’s calm, clear and, to repeat the not-so-subtle theme, very presidential.
Hillary is so polarizing. People have known her for 15 years, and I don’t think she is going to change many minds. On one level what’s going on here is that after the ineptitude of the Bush administration, people are drawn to Clinton because she is the only candidate in either party who will run a competent adminstration. I do think she is the best candidate the Democrats have to offer, but I think she is going to struggle in the general election no matter who the Republicans run against her. It won’t be easy for her. Oh and the Clinton team has some of the best minds in the Democratic Party. These people know how to run a campaign.
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