In an earlier post I expressed severe doubts that the sanctions on North Korea would work. I pointed out that (A) sanctions need pretty much 100 percent support from the targeted country’s trading partners to do any good (the Chinese are already failing in this regard) and (B) North Korea is, according to the CIA World Factbook, one of the world’s most isolated countries, so they don’t rely much on trade to begin with.

Either I was wrong, or there is something seriously fishy about this story. Kim Jong-Il, in talks with China, has offered to bargain in six-way talks if the world community ends the sanctions. He also said he regrets the test. No one can predict the future, and this news certainly weakens my analysis, but I’m still going to argue he’s not sincere.

Normally when someone regrets a policy decision, it’s because it didn’t turn out the way he expected it to. For example, this summer Hezbollah did not expect Israel to react to a political kidnapping with a full-scale invasion. They regret the kidnapping.

But these results are entirely predictable, even mild. Economic sanctions, Il had to have known before the test, were the very least punishment he would receive. And just a day or two ago North Korea was promising more tests, not fewer.

In other words, if he regrets it now, why did he do it in the first place?

I suspect Il is using this tactic to buy himself time. It wouldn’t be surprising for him to enter treaties he has no intention of keeping.

Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.