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OffStumped For All Things Right of Center, Bringing a Right of Centre Reality Check to Indian Politics, News Media Reporting and Opinion now in Hindi अब आप के लिये हिंदी मे.
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The 7th (VII) and final phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh came to close with 46% turnout. The NDTV exit poll showed SP doing well in this phase with over 20 seats, BSP coming in close second with just under 20 seats and the BJP doing about the same as last time.

As before Offstumped has detailed predictions from this phase below.

113 Katehari GEN – high to very high turnouts, favored BSP last 3 elections, battleground seat last election with less than 3% margin, strong congress performance dented BSP vote share, also SP had Brahmin candidate and BJP did not contest, BJP has given the seat to JD-U this time also fielding a Brahmin, this one is a tossup likely stay BSP
114 Akbarpur GEN – very high turnouts, strong BSP presence, won it last 3 elections, should stay BSP
115 Jalalpur GEN – high to very high turnouts, some muslim vote consolidation, was BSP stronghold in the past, has gone BJP and SP last 2 elections, CPM has had considerable influence in this seat in the past, SP incumbent is a Brahmin,  BJP incumbent has defected to BSP, this could go back to BSP
116 Jahangirganj SC – high turnouts, consistently voted out incumbents, Mayawati won this seat last time, wildly fluctuating vote shares for BSP and BJP last 2 elections, this one could stay BSP
117 Tanda GEN – high to very high turnouts, BSP stronghold with muslim vote consolidating behind SP, should stay BSP
118 Ayodhya GEN – moderate to high turnouts, BJP stronghold last 4 elections, interestingly both SP and BSP have fielded Brahmins, this should stay BJP
119 Bikapur GEN – high turnouts, favored SP last 3 elections, strong congress performance dented BJP vote share in 2002, this one should stay SP
120 Milkipur GEN – high turnouts, favored SP last 3 elections, steady rise in BJP vote share till 2004 bye election resulting from incumbent switching to BSP, this could be a tossup
121 Sohawal SC – high turnouts, favored SP last 3 elections, strong congress performance denting BSP vote share, BJP runnerup has defected to BSP, this one should stay SP
163 Bansgaon SC – moderate turnouts, favored BJP in the past, flip flopped with BSP last 3 elections, BSP dramatically expanded vote share last election at JD’s expense, this could go back to BJP this time
164 Dhuriapar GEN – high turnouts, favored BSP last 3elections, highly fragmented battleground seat in 2002 with vote share in the low 20s and teens, many defections this time around, this one is unpredictable
165 Chillupar GEN – high turnouts, stronghold of ex-congressman and 6 time incumbent Harishankar Tiwari who had parted ways with the congress, Tiwari continues to contest as others, both BSP and BJP have put up Brahmins against him, this should stay others
166 Kauriram GEN – moderate to high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents and parties, turned battleground last election with less than 0.01% margin, in an interesting flip flop BSP incumbent defected to SP and SP incumbent defected to BSP, this one is a definite tossup
167 Mundera Bazar SC – moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, battleground seat last election with less than 3% margin for SP, this one is a tossup
168 Pipraich GEN – very high turnouts, stronghold of independent and local strongman Pappu Bhaiyya, this should stay with Pappu Bhaiyya
169 Gorakhpur GEN – moderate to low turnouts, BJP stronghold went to others due to split in the parivar in 2002, should come back to BJP
170 Maniram GEN – moderate turnouts, favored SP last 2 elections,with former BJP and Lok Dal strongmen contesting as independents this should stay SP
171 Sahjanwa GEN – high turnouts has alternated BJP last 4 elections, with former BJP and SP strongmen contesting as independents this could very well stay BSP
172 Paniara GEN – high to very high turnouts has been Fateh Bahadur’s stronghold despite his flip flop from BJP to congress and back to BJP, battleground seat in 2002 with less than 2% margin, Fateh Bahadur is in BSP this time around however BJP maintains a steady vote share despite Fateh Bahadur’s flip flops so this is a tossup likely BJP
173 Pharenda GEN – high to very high turnouts, has voted out incumbents across parties last 4 elections, strong CPM and congress performance over the years, turned battleground last election with highly fragmented vote shares, with defections this one is a tossup
174 Laxmipur GEN – very high turnouts, Amarmani’s stronghold who has since defected to SP, should go to SP this time
175 Siswa GEN – very high turnouts, stronghold of Shiv Babu who has bounced around from congress to BSP to BJP, this time Shiv Babu is in SP and former SP man and local Mahant is in BJP, this one will likely go to SP
176 Maharajganj SC – very high turnouts, BJP stronghold last 4 elections, should remain BJP
177 Shyamdeurwa GEN – very high turnouts, vote bank battleground, muslim vote split has favored BJP last few elections, in 2002 came close with less than 1% margin, tossup should remain BJP unless muslim vote consolidates with BSP
178 Naurangia SC – high turnouts, favored BJP in alternate years voting out incumbents,  battleground seat with less than 2% margin, tossup
179 Ramkola GEN – high to very high turnouts, stronghold of local strongman Radhey shyam singh who is with SP, should stay SP
180 Hata SC – high turnouts, BJP stronghold should stay BJP
181 Padrauna GEN – high to very high turnouts, favored congress last 2 elections, should stay congress
182 Seorahi GEN – very high turnout, 3 way battleground less than 1% margin, tossup
183 Fazilnagar GEN – very high turnouts, SP stronghold in the past, turned battleground last election with less than 2% margin to favor BJP largely due to BSP improving its vote share, tossup
184 Kasia GEN – very high turnouts, flip flopped between 2 local strongmen belonging to BJP and SP (formerly JD), likely go back to BJP if precedent is anything to go by
185 Gauri Bazar GEN – high to very high turnouts, alternated BJP in last 4 elections, last election saw BSP dent BJP vote share significantly, this time around BSP runnerup is in BJP, this could come back to BJP if precedent is anything to go by
186 Rudrapur GEN – high turnouts has alternated BJP in last 4 elections, this could come back to BJP if precedent is anything to go by
187 Deoria GEN – moderate to high turnouts, has been a BJP JD fight  in the past, incumbent has since defected to SP, this will likely go to SP
188 Bhatpar Rani GEN – congress stronghold in the past however, local congressman kameshwar upadhyay has defected to SP, this could go to SP
189 Salempur GEN – moderate turnouts, consistently BSP last 3 elections however close fight in 2002 with less than 3% margin from SP, BSP incumbent has defected to SP, this is a tossup likely SP
190 Barhaj GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents and parties, turned 3 way battleground with vote shares in 20s and less than 2% margins, this one is a tossup
191 Natthupur GEN – high turnouts, has alternated BSP last 3 elections, battleground seat with less than 2% margin and vote shares in the 20s, with a new slate of candidates across the board this one is a tossup
192 Ghosi GEN – high turnouts, former stronghold of late congressman kalpanth rai, has favored BJP decisively last 2 elections, BJP incumbent has defected to BSP, this could slip away from BJP to BSP
193 Sagri GEN – high turnouts has favored BSP over the years, turned battleground with less than 1% margin, this one is a tossup likely BSP
194 Gopalpur GEN – high turnouts, muslim seat, favored SP last 2 elections with reasonable margin, stay SP
195 Azamgarh GEN – high turnouts, decisive margins for SP, stay SP
196 Nizamabad GEN – high turnouts, muslim seat, favored SP last 2 elections with reasonable margin, should stay SP
197 Atraulia GEN – high turnouts, favored SP over the years, should stay SP
198 Phulpur GEN – high turnouts, congress stronghold last 2 elections, came close in 2002 with 3% margin against BSP should stay congress
199 Saraimir SC – moderate to high turnouts, BSP stronghold last 3 elections, stay BSP
200 Mehnagar SC – high turnouts, consistently voted out incumbents across parties, battleground seat in 2002 with less than 1% margin between BSP and BJP,tossup
201 Lalganj GEN – high turnouts, BSP stronghold turned battle ground with less than 1% vote margin against BJP, tossup
202 Mubarakpur GEN – high turnouts, BSP stronghold, stay BSP
203 Mohammadabad Gohna SC – high turnouts, has alternated BJP in the past, turned battleground last 2 elections with less than 1% vote margin, BSP runnerup defected to SP, this one is a tossup
204 Mau GEN – high turnouts, Mukhtar Ansari’s stronghold, the don is running as an independent, this will go to others
205 Rasra SC – high turnouts, favored BSP every other time, should stay BSP
206 Siar GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and SP, could go back to BJP this time
207 Chilkahar GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped BSP and BJP,  vote fragmentation between BSP and SP has aided BJP in 2002,  this one is unpredictable likely BSP
208 Sikandarpur GEN – high turnouts, voted out incumbents consistently,  vote fragmentation between SP and others, unpredictable likely others
209 Bansdih GEN – moderate turnouts, congress stronghold till local strongman rebelled, went to others last time, he has since returned to congress, this should go back to congress
210 Daoba GEN – moderate turnouts, BJP stronghold, stay BJP
211 Ballia GEN – moderate turnouts, former PM Chandrashekhar’s stronghold, has consistently thrown out incumbents, favored SP last time, this one is unpredictable
212 Kopachit GEN – high turnouts, favored SP last 2 elections should stay SP

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