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OffStumped For All Things Right of Center, Bringing a Right of Centre Reality Check to Indian Politics, News Media Reporting and Opinion now in Hindi अब आप के लिये हिंदी मे.
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An exit poll after the sixth phase of voting in Uttar Pradesh assembly elections on Thursday showed the BJP and the ruling SP at second place after the BSP which continues to maintain the lead in the projections. NDTV’s exit poll predicted 120 to 130 seats for the BSP, 110 to 120 for both the BJP and the SP, 35 to 45 for the Congress and ten to 20 for others in fray for the 403-member assembly. It predicted 19 to 23 seats for the BSP, 16 to 20 for the SP, 9 to 13 for the BJP and up to three for the Congress in today’s voting in 52 constituencies of the state. An India TV-C Voter exit poll gave 17 to 21 seats to the BSP, 13 to 17 to the SP, 12 to 16 to the BJP, one to five to the Congress and as many to others in today’s voting 

As before Offstumped has come up with its predictions.

Key highlights in this phase are a large number of seats that have consistently voted out incumbent candidates and parties, based on Offstumped analysis a majority of these seats could likely go to BJP. SP is not gaining much in this phase, while BSP’s prospects as before are hinged on a large number of tossups and unpredictable seats. Another highlight of this phase is evidence of congress hurting the BJP’s prospects in a good number of seats.

Based on the projections for the sixth phase, the overall tally so far looks as follows:

BJP – 70 to 92 assuming a good number of seats come its way on account of anti-incumbency

SP – 50 to 55 on account of a large number of tossups and unpredictables

BSP – 49 to 60 on account of a large number of tossups and unpredictables

Congress – 12

Others – 15

Tossups and Unpredictables – 82

The detailed analysis for Phase VI follows: 
213 Zahoorabad GEN – very high turnouts, strong BSP presence, has favored BJP in the past, BSP, SP runner up is contesting as an Independent, likely stay BSP but could get close competition from BJP
214 Mohammadabad GEN – high to very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation favored SP and CPI in the past, BJP won this seat last time with muslim vote consolidation dropping to all time low, stay BJP unless last minute muslim vote consolidates in favor of SP
215 Dildarnagar GEN – high turnouts, SP stronghold with decisive margins, stay SP
216 Zamania GEN – high turnouts, favored SP last 2 elections, BSP vote share has declined here with SP appropriating erstwhile JD/JP vote base, BJP has held steady over the elections but not quite to get it over the hump, surprising strong presence of CPI-ML indicative of the naxal/tribal influence, with former BSP winner running on a Jan Morcha ticket, this one could get tough for SP making it a tossup
217 Ghazipur GEN – high turnouts interesting battleground seat with BSP and CPI tied last election with less than 0.5% margin, BSP has gained at the expense of CPI over the years, Congress dented BJP’s vote share last election with a strong performance, tossup
218 Jakhania SC – high turnouts, favored BSP in the past which has since lost vote share to JD/SP over the last 2 elections, SP incumbent is not contesting this time, this could go back to BSP
219 Sadat SC – high turnouts, favored SP last 3 elections but BSP has been steadily increasing vote share making it a 2 way fight and came within 4% of margin last election, with all 3 players replacing incumbents with new faces this one is unpredictable maybe a BSP pickup
220 Saidpur GEN – high turnouts, has flip flopped between BSP and BJP in the past, went SP in 2004 bye election, BSP has ensnared former SP Brahmin candidate, this one will likely stay SP
221 Dhanapur GEN – high turnouts, 2-way battleground between SP and BSP with less than 0.01% margin, this one is a tossup
222 Chandauli SC – high turnouts flip flopped between BSP and BJP with reasonable margins, SP expanded vote share significantly in 2002, this seat has consistently voted out incumbents, this could go back to BJP
223 Chakia SC – high to very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past but has since turned battleground with less than 1% vote margin with SP expanding its base significantly, the BSP while commanding a very respectable and steady base has never won this seat, with both BJP and BSP fielding new faces this one is going to be unpredictable and a tossup at that
224 Mughalsarai GEN – high turnouts, steady BJP seat till 2002 when SP wrested it with a wide margin, this could go back to BJP
225 Varanasi Cantonment GEN – low turnouts, BJP stronghold, stay BJP
226 Varanasi South GEN – very low turnouts, BJP stronghold, stay BJP
227 Varanasi North GEN – moderate to low turnouts, favored BJP when muslim vote split, with muslim vote consolidating in favor of SP has tended last 2 elections, with all 3 parties fielding new candidates and congress also fielding a muslim this could go back to BJP
228 Chiraigaon GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, went Congress and SP last 2 elections, this seat has been highly fragmented by other parties, with vote shares in low 20s and the teens and lots of defections this one is unpredictable
229 Kolasla GEN – high turnouts favored BJP last 2 elections, had a strong CPI base in the past which has since shifted to BSP, congress and SP have put up Brahmin candidates and CPI has retained its strongman, this one will likely stay BJP
230 Gangapur GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, strong CPI base which has since migrated to SP, steady BSP base but never won this seat, incumbent is from Apna Dal who has since defected to SP, BSP has put up a Brahmin, this may go to Apna Dal with its BJP alliance

231 Aurai GEN – high turnouts, strong BJP seat in the past, congress cut into BJP vote base in 2002, while BSP gained significantly from SP to win this seat, incumbent BJP Brahmin candidate defected to BSP, BJP has given this to Apna Dal, this one will likely go BSP
232 Gyanpur GEN – high turnouts, flip flopped between BSP and BJP in the past, SP won it last time with Brahmin candidate and Congress denting BJP vote share, this seat has voted out incumbents consistently, this could come back to BJP
233 Bhadohi SC – moderate to high turnouts, has flip flopped between BJP and BSP, SP and BSP vote shares have pretty much remained steady last 2 elections, congress has cut into BJP in 2002, this seat has voted out incumbents consistently, this may go back to BJP this time
234 Barsathi GEN – high turnouts has flip flopped between SP, BSP and BJP over the years, this seat has voted out incumbents consistently, both SP and BSP have put up Brahmin candidates, this may go back to BSP
235 Mariahu GEN – high turnouts has been consistently SP last 4 elections, BSP made a dramatic challenge to turn this into a battleground seat in 2004 bye election, SP incumbent is contesting as an independent, this one is a tossup and unpredictable
236 Kerakat SC – moderate turnouts, has been BJP stronghold over the years BSP has increased vote share to make it a battleground last election with less than 1% vote share, this is a tossup likely BJP
237 Bayalsi GEN – high turnouts, has seen steady rise of BSP to establish a decisive margin last 2 elections, likely remain BSP
238 Jaunpur GEN – high turnouts, has seen steady rise of BJP over the years to make this muslim vote bank seat a battleground seat, this will likely stay BJP with muslim vote splitting
239 Rari GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents, in 2002 favored an independent who is since contesting as JD-U, also Beni Prasad Verma’s outfit has put up a former BSP MLA from the seat, this one could go to JD-U
240 Shahganj SC – high turnouts, has flip flopped between BSP and BJP, went SP in 2002 with BSP and BJP locked in equal vote share largely due to congress, has consistently voted out incumbents, this could go back to BJP
241 Khutahan GEN – high turnouts, was stronghold of Umakant Yadav across parties, in 2002 went BSP with a highly fragmented Yadav vote base, the BSP incumbent has since defected to SP, this could back to SP
242 Garwara GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents, BSP vote share has been declining over last few elections, BSP has fielded a Brahmin this time, could go back to BJP this time around
243 Machhlishahr GEN – high turnouts, was stronghold of 5 time incumbent Yadav strongman, turned battleground in 2002 with BSP dramatically improving its vote share to reduce the margin to less than 1%, BSP has fielded a Brahmin candidate this time, BJP has given seat to apna dal, this is a tossup 
244 Dudhi SC – high turnouts, stronghold of 7 time incumbent Vijay Singh who is not contesting this time, this seat is unpredictable
245 Robertsganj SC – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, turned battleground last election with vote share fragmentation to the low 20s, incumbent SP winner has defected to congress, this one is a tossup
246 Rajgarh GEN – very high turnouts, has turned decisively BSP, congress continues maintain a strong base here, stay BSP
247 Chunar GEN – high to very high turnouts, BJP stronghold should stay BJP
\ 248 Majhwa GEN – high to very high turnouts, favored BSP in the past, congress has been putting a strong presence as the principal opposition resulting in BSP wresting the seat from BJP in 2002, with congress veteran lokpati tripathi not contesting, this seat could be in play once again, likely remain BSP
249 Mirzapur GEN – high turnouts, BJP stronghold ceded to SP in 2002 with BSP and congress denting BJP vote share, could come back to BJP
250 Chhanvey SC – moderate to high turnouts, has flip flopped between BSP and BJP, strong congress performance dented BJP vote share in 2002, incumbent SP runner up has defected to congress this time, former BSP man has defected to SP, this one is unpredictable
251 Meja SC – high turnouts, CPM stronghold, likely stay CPM
252 Karchhana GEN – high turnouts, Revati Raman Singhs stronghold who is not contesting this time, this one is unpredictable
253 Bara GEN – high to very high turnouts, BSP stronghold turned battleground last election with vote shares in 20s and margin less than 0.02% with BSP losing ground to congress, many year BSP incumbent has defected to SP, this one is a tossup
254 Jhusi GEN – high to very high turnouts, SP stronghold, stay SP
255 Handia GEN – high to very high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents and parties, dramatic swing in vote shares over elections, BJP incumbent defected to BSP, former SP incumbent defected to BJP, this one is unpredictable
256 Pratappur GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents and parties, dramatic swing in vote shares over elections turned battleground in last election with vote shares in low 20s and margin less than 1%, this one is a tossup
257 Soraon GEN – high turnouts, has consistently voted out incumbents flip-flopping between BSP and BJP, turned battleground with less than 1% margin, with BSP and SP putting up muslim candidates,  this continues to be an unpredictable tossup seat
258 Nawabganj GEN – high turnouts, muslim vote bank battleground, has consitently voted out incumbents and parties, current incumbent was muslim from Apna Dal winning with less than 2% margin, this one is an unpredictable seat
259 Allahabad North GEN – very low turnouts, BJP stronghold, stay BJP
260 Allahabad South GEN – low turnouts, BJP stronghold Kesri Nath Tripathi’s seat, turned battleground last time with 2% margin, with Congress’ Rita Bahaguna Joshi poised to play spoilsport this BJP stronghold could be in play, tossup likely BJP
261 Allahabad West GEN – moderate turnouts, muslim majority seat, was 6 time stronghold of local strongman, went to BSP in bye election,  this one is unpredictable
262 Chail SC – moderate turnouts has consistently voted out incumbents, went BSP last time, with wildly swinging vote shares, this one is unpredictable
263 Manjhanpur SC – moderate to high turnouts, has turned BSP last 2 elections, should stay BSP
264 Sirathu SC – moderate to high turnouts, has turned BSP last 3 elections, BSP incumbent has defected to SP since, this could go SP

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