[It is pretty obvious that in a multi-tribal society with vast ethnic and religious differences between factions such as is the case in Iraq, it is highly unlikely that a stable government can be forged that will overcome the fundamental hazard of democracies — tyranny of the majority.

It looks as though the Kurds — about 20% — have more or less been establishing their independence long before the demise of Hussein.  It is highly unlikely that they are going to capitulate to a Shiite majority — about 60% of the population.  And the remaining 20% Sunnis who were in charge under Hussein are not going to sit quietly while the Shiites exact their revenge.  One is told that division of the oil is only one of the fundamental conflict areas.  Others involve protection of the two minorities against the potential tyranny of the Shiites with their hostilities and brutal militias all too manifest.

Any who would compare Iraq’s with the difficulties involved in forming the U.S. Republic had better look again at the differences in ingredients — here mainly English stock people with shared cultural traditions and more or less accordant religious commitments.  No such potential civil society as a basis for democracy exists in Iraq.  Those who might have put such together — doctors, lawyers, teachers, business people — a middle class basis for forming a stable regime — have been fleeing the country by the millions.

Once Again our American administration is living in fantasy land.  There is no prospect for ending the civil war in Iraq.  Our troops can dash around, trying to avoid being hit in the crossfire.  But there is no way in heaven or hell that we can force Iraq to become a well ordered democracy.

The Times article below exposes but the tip of this simmering volcano rumbling towards violent eruption!  Ed Kent]

…………………………

Iraqi Blocs  Opposed to Draft Oil Bill
By EDWARD WONG  and SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
Kurdish and Sunni Arab officials are concerned over a draft
of a bill establishing a framework for the fair
distribution of oil revenues.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/03/world/middleeast/03iraq.html?th&emc=th

“A war is just if there is no alternative, and the resort to arms is legitimate if they represent your last hope.” (Livy cited by Machiavelli)

Ed Kent  718-951-5324 (voice mail only) [blind copies]
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