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Though exit polls haven’t been able to agree on the outcome of the UP polls, NDTV-IMRB poll had a totally different view both on the fifth phase and the state. For the latest phase, it projected 21 seats for the BJP front, 14 for the BSP, 10 for the SP and 9 for the Congress, which means BJP and Congress would gain at the expense of BSP and SP.

It also said the overall results would be truly a three-cornered contest with the BSP likely to finish with 120-130 seats, the BJP-led combine with 115-125 and the SP with 95-105. The Congress was projected to win 35-45 seats, a sharp increase from the 25 it won last time.

India TV-C Voter poll, in sharp contrast, projected the BJP as the major loser from the fifth phase, winning just 8-12 seats compared to the 15 it won in 2002. The SP will more or less repeat its last assembly elections performance.

Offstumped analysis for the fifth phase is in line with NDTV’s projection. This phase is a key test of Rahul Gandhi’s ability to capitalize on a steady base of congress seats to buck the trend and win some seats for the Congress.

In summary Offstumped is predicting upto 16 for the BSP, upto 21 for the BJP and the rest between SP, congres and the others.

The detailed analysis is below.

67 Beniganj SC – high to very high turnouts, favored SP in the fast, SP runner up defected to BSP, will likely go BSP
68 Sandila GEN -  very high turnouts, muslim vote bank consolidation in favor of BSP last 2 elections, favored BJP in the past when muslim vote split and overall turnout was low, turnout and muslim vote fragmentation is key, likely go BSP unless turnout is in the 40s-50s  could favor BJP
69 Ahirori SC – high to very high turnouts, tended to go SP with BSP strongman defecting to SP who is not contesting this time around however the BSP runner up has also defected to SP, this will likely stay SP
70 Hardoi GEN – high turnouts, congress stronghold till 5 time incumbent Naresh Agarwal defected to SP, likely stay SP
71 Bawan SC – very high turnouts, favored BJP last 2 elections, however incumbent BJP candidate not contesting and BSP runner up defected to SP, likely BJP but cannot rule out a BSP surprise
72 Pihani GEN – very high turnouts, SP Brahmin  stronghold, muslim BSP runner up has defected to Congress, BSP has put up another muslim, likely stay SP
73 Shahabad GEN  – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation favored the SP till 2002 when a fragmented muslim vote saw the BJP wrest this one for the first time, lot will depend on turnout and muslim vote fragmentation between BSP and SP, this one likely stay BJP
74 Bilgram GEN – very high turnouts, former BJP stronghold, flip-flopped with SP last 2 elections, SP vote base has remained stagnant over the elections, vote split between congress, BSP and BJP has been key to influencing the outcome, BSP has fielded a Brahmin candidate here, this seat is unpredictable likely stay SP
75 Mallawan GEN  – very high turnouts, has voted out incumbents last 3 elections, strong congress performance is the reason for swinging the pendulum from SP to BSP. SP has a Brahmin candidate, this one is again unpredictable
76 Bangarmau GEN  – very high turnouts, has tended to favour BSP last 2 elections, outcome has largely been influenced by strong congress performance, this one too is unpredictable likely stay BSP
77 Safipur SC – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past by narrow margins, congress and others had taken away vote share from the BJP pushing it to the3rd spot in 2002, both the SP winner and BSP runner up from 2002 not contesting this time, this one is unpredictable likely go back to BJP
78 Unnao GEN – moderate turnouts, a history of anti-incumbency, turned a 3 way battle ground with vote shares in the 20s, margin less than 3%, congress had a strong showing in 2002 with former BJP man defecting to the congress, BSP winner not contesting this time, BSP has fielded a Brahmin candidate, this one is a tossup likely Congress
79 Hadha GEN – high turnouts, battleground of 2 local strongmen who have defected across parties with the political season, it was a battleground seat in 2002 with vote shares in the 20s and a less than 2% margin due to the rise of BSP, the BJP incumbent has since defected to the congress, this one is a tossup likely Congress
80 Bhagwant Nagar GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, steady erosion in favor of BSP which has grown at the expense of both the BJP and SP in 2002, the BJP incumbent has since defected to BSP, the BSP incumbent has in turn defected to SP, this one is unpredictable likely BSP
81 Purwa GEN  – high turnouts, SP stronghold which has risen at the expense of BSP while the BJP maintains a steady base not quite large enough to swing the pendulum, likely stay SP
82 Hasanganj SC – high turnouts, favored BJP last 2 elections, has become a battleground seat in 2002 with less than 2% margin, tossup likely stay BJP
83 Malihabad SC – very high turnouts, odd communist veteran is the incumbent as an independent, BSP and BJP have marginal presence, this will likely go to Others
84 Mahona GEN – moderate to high turnouts has flip flopped between BJP and SP alternating between incumbents, this is unpredictable but if flip-flops are anything to go by likely BJP
85 Lucknow East GEN  -  very low turnouts, BJP stronghold with declining margins largely on account of voter apathy, tossup likely BJP a lot depends on turnout
86 Lucknow West GEN  – BJP stronghold Lalji Tandon’s pocket borough, will remain BJP
87 Lucknow Central GEN – very low turnouts, BJP stronghold with declining margins largely on account of voter apathy, will remain BJP but turnout could end up being a spoiler
88 Lucknow Cantonment GEN – very low turnouts, BJP stronghold with declining margins, will remain BJP, keep an eye on turnout
89 Sarojini Nagar GEN – high turnouts, former congress stronghold since gravitated to SP, BSP made major gains at Congress expense to turn the seat into a battleground and to win it in 2002,  tossup likely BSP
90 Mohanlalganj SC- very high turnouts, favored SP in the past, saw the dramatic rise of BSP at the expense of congress due to a key defection, with the incumbent running on Others this will likely go to Others
91 Bachhrawan SC – very high turnouts, has bounced around the political spectrum to throw out incumbents, this one is unpredictable but may go BJP with former BSP man defecting to BJP
92 Tiloi GEN – very high turnouts, evidence of muslim vote consolidation in favor of SP or congress depending on the incumbent defecting between them, the rise of BSP to split the Muslim vote has turned this into a battleground with less than 0.7% margin, with key defections from BJP and BSP to SP and Congress, this one is as unpredictable as it can get
93 Rae Bareli GEN – high turnouts, reliable congress stronghold, but things maybe different this time with 3 time congress incumbent running as an independent, unpredictable likely congress but there is an outside chance of a major upset
94 Sataon GEN – very high turnouts, favored BSP reliably despite changing candidates, likely remain BSP
95 Sareni GEN – high to very high turnouts, favored SP last 2 elections but defections galore across, strong congress challenge to SP, likely remain SP unless Rahul Gandhi has worked some magic, one seat to look out for if Rahul Gandhi could tap latent congress vote base and take it over the finish line
96 Dalmau GEN – very high turnouts, battleground seat with less than 0.01% margin, this one is for the bookies, key defection from BJP to congress,  tossup likely BSP
97 Salon SC -  moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP in the past , rise of BSP has undercut BJP due to key defection making this a battleground seat, strong congress presence over the years, tossup likely congress
98 Kunda GEN – moderate turnouts, Raja Bhaiyya’s pocket borough, the sheer dominance of his writ can be seen in the over 70% vote share he has been garnering in recent times, this time maybe different with the 7 phase poll and all electronic voting, however neither the BJP nor the SP has put up a candidate against him so keep an eye on Raja Bhaiyya during post poll maneuvers
99 Bihar SC – high turnouts, another independent strongman’s pocket borough, with more than 50% vote share, however the incumbent strongman is not contesting this time, making this seat rather unpredictable, maybe Apna Dal will pick this one up
100 Rampurkhas GEN – moderate to high turnouts, Pramod Tiwari’s stronghold, will stay Congress
101 Gadwara GEN – moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, battleground seat with less than 2% margin, incumbent has defected to SP and BSP runnerup has defected to Apna Dal, this one is a tossup maybe another pickup for Apna Dal
102 Pratapgarh GEN – moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP on and off, muslim vote bank battleground with less than 2% margin, tossup likely SP with Muslim runnerup defecting to SP to consolidate muslim vote
103 Birapur GEN – high turnouts, BJP stronghold, will stay BJP
104 Patti GEN – high turnouts, BJP stronghold, will stay BJP
105 Amethi GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP over the years, however incumbent has defected to congress, and congress incumbent has defected to BSP, this one is unpredictable may go Congress this time
106 Gauriganj GEN – high turnouts, vote bank battleground with 4 way split in the 20s and less than 0.2% margin, BJP has won this seat in the past, tossup between BJP and Congress too close to call
107 Jagdishpur SC – high turnouts, another seat with strong congress performance likely stay Congress
108 Issauli GEN – high turnouts, unpredictable seat has thrown out incumbents for many years now and favored all hues of the political spectrum, BSP has a Brahmin candidate here, this one is unpredictable likely SP
109 Sultanpur GEN – moderate turnouts, vote bank battleground, has gone BJP in the past, likely stay BJP
110 Jaisinghpur GEN – high turnouts, has gone BSP with 2% to 4% margins, stay BSP
111 Chanda GEN – moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP every alternate election, turned battleground last time with vote shares in the 20s and less than 1% margin, tossup likely BSP
112 Kadipur SC – high turnouts, flip flopped between BJP and BSP last 4 elections, odd seat with a steady CPIM base, likely BJP if precedents are anything to go by, strong CPM performance hurts the BSP
265 Khaga GEN – high turnouts, vote bank battleground, all round defections from BSP to SP, BJP to congress, this one is unpredictable maybe BSP
266 Kishunpur SC – moderate turnouts, battleground between BSP and BJP with less than 1% margin, tossup likely BJP 
267 Haswa GEN – high turnouts, strong BSP seat, stay BSP
268 Fatehpur GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, moved BSP last election with steady rise of BSP vote share over the years, but incumbent BSP has defected to SP and BSP has put up a muslim candidate, this one could go back to BJP
269 Jahanabad GEN – high turnouts, battleground seat with some muslim vote consolidation and less than 2% margin, tossup likely Congress
270 Bindki GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP over the years, battleground seat with 3% margin, incumbent BJP strongman has since defected to SP, former BSP strongman has defected to BJP, this one will be a tossup maybe BJP
299 Manikpur SC – moderate turnouts, favored BJP in the past has turned decisively BSP in the last 2 elections, stay BSP
300 Karwi GEN – high turnouts, turned decisively in favor of BSP, will stay BSP
301 Baberu GEN – high turnouts, favored BSP over the years, stay BSP
302 Tindwari GEN – high turnouts, strong BSP seat went for SP in 2002 with BSP defection to SP, may stay SP

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