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Uttar Pradesh went to the fourth phase of assembly elections on Monday. According to the NDTV exit poll conducted after the fourth phase, the SP is projected to bag the largest share of 25-29 seats out of the 57 that went to polls. The exit poll predicts BSP getting 13-17 seats, BJP 10-14 and Congress emerging victorious in 1-5 seats. According to the exit poll, if present voting patterns continue, BSP could emerge as the single largest party with 131-141 seats against 98 in 2002 elections, followed by SP with 109-119 seats. The exit poll shows the BJP getting 91-101 seat (107 in 2002) and the Congress winning on 33-43 seats against 25 in the previous elections.

Offstumped analysis reveals this phase to be a little of everything, with evidence of BSP emergence in its own right, vote bank battlegrounds, congress denting BJP prospects in some seats, SP maintaining its stronghold in some seats. If there is a pattern across this phase it is how BJP has ceded ground in many of the seats despite a reliable vote base. If 2002 and 2004 marked the rock bottom of BJP performance, 2007 could see that graph climb up.

For those of you looking for a quick snapshot of Offstumped predictions in this phase, stay tuned for a refresh, for the rest detailed analysis follows. 

51 Mohamdi SC – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, turned battleground in the last election, less than 1% margin, bsp and sp have gained at the expense of congress due to defections, tossup
52 Haiderabad GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP seat in the past has turned favorable to SP last 2 elections with BSP emerging as the main rival, likely stay SP
53 Paila SC – high to very high turnouts, 3 way battleground, vote shares in the 20s, saw the rise of BSP, stay BSP
54 Lakhimpur GEN – moderate to high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, decisively SP last 2 elections, saw the rise of BSP, was infamous for the murder of IIM Grad and IOC Employee Manjunath not much of an election issue though, could go BSP with Brahmin candidate who was runner up last election
55 Srinagar GEN – very high turnouts, mayawatis seat last 2 elections, however last election was a close affair with Mayawati winning with a 3% margin, should stay BSP unless SP’s muslim candidate springs a major upset
56 Nighasan GEN – high turnouts, turned 3 way battleground last election with BSP Brahmin strategy, stay BSP
57 Dhaurehra GEN – very high turnouts, battleground seat past elections with less than 2% margin, SP managed to win 2002 comfortably, interesting contest between BSP’s Brahmin strategy and BJP’s Apna Dal Kurmi calculus, congress which had a 35% vote share saw a complete erosion last election, the BJP’s kurmi calculus could spring a surprise here
58 Behta GEN – very high turnouts, reliably SP last 2 elections, rise of BSP as main rival however lot of churn in BSP, interesting thing is steady base for both BJP and BSP last few elections in the 20s, will likely stay SP unless low turnout makes it a battleground
59 Biswan GEN – very high turnouts, flip-flopped SP/BJP in the past, BJP lost significant chunk to congress to concede the seat to SP last election, likely stay SP if congress does well else could go BJP
60 Mahmoodabad GEN – very high turnouts, vote bank battleground seat, reliably BJP, muslim vote consolidation in favor of congress in the past, last election muslim vote split to favor BJP, however BJP incumbent has defected to SP, BSP and Cong have fielded muslim candidates, BJP has given this seat to Apna Dal, likely go SP
61 Sidhauli SC – very high turnouts, reliably SP last 5 elections, saw the rise of BSP as primary rival, turned battleground last election, tossup likely stay SP
62 Laharpur GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, turned battleground last election with BSP appropriating muslim vote from congress, muslim likely to split between BSP and congress, stay SP
63 Sitapur GEN – high to very high turnouts, favord BJP in the past 5 times, turned reliably SP last 2 elections with BSP eroding BJP vote, likely stay SP
64 Hargaon SC – very interesting seat, high to very high turnouts, 3 way battleground with exactly 30% vote share, clear evidence of the rise of BSP as a dalit force turning out the dalit vote to carve a base in its own right, vote margin less than 0.5%, tossup likely BSP
65 Misrikh GEN – high to very hight turnouts, reliably SP last 3 elections, rise of BSP at the expense of congress, 3 time SP incumbent not contesting, new slate of candidates, JD-U is contesting this seat, BSP MP from Misrikh ashok rawat named in Katara immigration scandal, likely stay SP
66 Machhrehta SC – high to very high turnouts, moved decisively BSP last election, could become competitive with LokJanshakti runner up defecting to SP, likely stay BSP
122 Rudauli GEN – very high turnouts, vote bank battleground, muslim vote consolidated last election in favor of SP, also reliable BJP vote base split last election badly, tossup will go down to vote bank turnout and vote bank fragmentation
123 Dariyabad GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP last 2 elections which benefited from local cong strongman defecting to BJP, however he has since defected to SP, BJP has given the seat to Apna Dal, likely go SP
124 Siddhaur SC – very high turnouts, flip-flopped across the political spectrum, moved decisively in favor of SP last election, stay SP
125 Haidergarh GEN – very high turnouts, Rajnath Singh’s seat last election, BJP and BSP have Brahmin candidates this time around, unless BSP dramatically cuts BJP vote base should remain BJP
126 Masauli GEN – very high turnouts, Beni Prasad Verma’s pocket borough, has also seen muslim vote consolidation, likely see evidence of SP hurting from Beni Prasad Verma’s rebellion, go to others
127 Nawabganj GEN – hight turnouts, 3 way battleground seat with 0.02% margin and 30% vote share, incumbent BJP strong man defected to BSP, likely go BSP
128 Fatehpur SC – very hight turnouts, decisively favored BJP last time, stay BJP
129 Ramnagar GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP last time muslim vote split, stay BJP
130 Kaiserganj GEN –high turnouts, favored BJP last time, battleground seat, tossup likely BJP
131 Fakharpur GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, battleground seat less than 1% margin, tossup, maybe BJP
132 Mahsi GEN – high turnouts, favored BSP last election decisively, evidence of SP hurting from Beni rebellion, likely stay BSP
133 Nanpara GEN – high turnouts, vote bank battleground, reliably BJP in the past, muslim vote consolidation in favor of BSP last time turned it battleground, muslim vote split will favor BJP
134 Charda SC – high turnouts, decisively muslim vote consolidation in favor of SP last 3 elections, stay SP
135 Bhinga GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, vote bank battleground with muslim vote consolidation in favor of BSP, 5 time BJP MLA not contesting, muslim vote split likely between cong/bsp, will favor of BJP
136 Bahraich GEN – high turnouts, muslim vote reliably consolidated in favor of SP, BSP has put up Brahmin candidate, stay SP
137 Ikauna SC – reliable BJP stronghold, stay BJP
138 Gainsari GEN –very high turnouts, vote bank battleground, BSP/Cong muslim candidates could hurt SP to make it a tossup likey stay SP
139 Tulsipur GEN – very high turnouts, vote bank battleground, muslim vote consolidation in favor of SP/BSP over the years, 4 way battleground with incumbent runner up contesting as OTHERS, tossup
140 Balrampur GEN – high turnouts, 3 way battleground seat with strong congress presence, tossup
141 Utraula GEN – moderate to high turnouts, vote bank battleground, muslim vote split 2 way making it close contest with BJP in 2002, 3 way muslim vote split could favor BJP
142 Sadullah Nagar GEN – reliable BJP stronghold, stay BJP
143 Mankapur SC – high turnouts reliable SP seat few with over 50% vote share, stay SP
144 Mujehna GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, BJP defection to SP last election, maybe BJP if it has recovered ground with Brahmin candidate
145 Gonda GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, decisively SP last 2 elections, stay SP
146 Katra Bazar GEN – high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, turned battleground to favor SP with brahmin candidate, both BSP and SP have Brahmin candidates this time, it’s a tossup
147 Colonelganj GEN – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, turned battleground last time with BSP splitting the community to gain the seat, incumbent BJP and BSP strongmen have since defected to Congress and SP, this is a tossup
148 Dixir SC – moderate to hight turnouts, reliable BJP seat went SP last time with BSP cutting into BJP vote share, incumbent SP strong man not contesting this time, could be unpredictable likely come back to BJP
149 Harraiya GEN – high turnouts, battleground seat, incumbent BSP defection to SP and SP defection to BJP, tossup
150 Captainganj GEN – very high turnouts, 4 way battleground, local strongman has bounced from SP to BSP to BJP all along keeping his seat, this time around he has bounced back to BSP, this is a tossup,
151 Nagar East SC – hight turnouts, favored SP with reasonable margin, BSP lost vote share to congress last time, may go BSP this time
152 Basti GEN – high turnouts, Jagadambika Pal’s pocket borough, stood by him through his political defections, stay congress
153 Ramnagar GEN – high turnouts, SP has managed to win this seat last time with brahmin candidate defected from BJP, likely stay SP
154 Domariaganj GEN – high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation in favor of SP, BJP did well in the past but congress seems to have cut into its vote bank, tossup depending on how much congress undercuts BJP
155 Itwa GEN – high turnouts, reverse vote bank politics never seen before, brahmin SP candidate defeating congress muslim candidate, likely stay SP
156 Shohratgarh GEN – high turnout, reliably BJP till 2002 when BJP incumbent defected to SP resulting in Cong picking up the seat, incumbent Cong man now in SP, incumbent SP man and former BJP man now in Cong, BSP has a muslim candidate, this one is a tossup
157 Naugarh GEN – high turnouts, reliably BJP till 2002 when defections hurt it, tossup
158 Bansi GEN – hight turnouts reliably BJP battleground last time around with congress cutting into BJP, BSP has put up a Brahmin candidate this could be a tossup likely BJP
159 Khesraha GEN – high turnouts, has voted out incumbents last 3 elections, local strong man defected from congress to BJP to SP, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, this one is unpredictable likely SP
160 Menhdawal GEN – high turnouts, reliably bjp in the past, has lot ground to BSP and congress, muslim vote consolidation in favor of SP last 2 elections, BSP has put up a muslim candidate, unless muslim vote splits badly stay SP
161 Khalilabad SC – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP with 2% margins, stay BJP
162 Hainsarbazar SC – high turnouts,favored BSP in the past, went JD-U last time, unpredictable

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