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OffStumped For All Things Right of Center, Bringing a Right of Centre Reality Check to Indian Politics, News Media Reporting and Opinion now in Hindi अब आप के लिये हिंदी मे.
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The third phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh, involving 57of the state’s 403 seats, ended on Wednesday. In an NDTV exit poll for the third phase the Samajwadi Party has slipped to the third position in the 57 seats. The Samajwadi Party that had bagged 26 of the Muslim-dominated 57 seats in the 2002 elections can expect only 10-14 seats this time.  But the BJP seems to have improved its position from the 13 seats it bagged last time. The exit poll predicts 20-24 seats for Kalyan Singh’s BJP and about 15-19 seats are predicted for Mayawati’s BSP up from the nine seats it had bagged in 2002. The Congress party can expect 4-8 seats doing better from the four seats it bagged five years ago. If the entire state shows the same swing as in the three phase of polling already over – Mayawati’s BSP stays as the single largest party bagging 120-130 seats. The BJP alliance comes a close second with 110-120 seats and the Samajwadi Party is ranked third at 105-115 seats.

Offstumped as before has come up with its analysis and predictions for this phase. Some of the key highlights of this phase are the battleground seats with vote bank politics in clear evidence. As the exit polls seem to indicate, fragmentation of the Muslim vote seems to be hurting SP and helping the BJP. The other key highlight of this phase is the unusually high turnout historically across these seats which has seen a rather less than usual 50% turnout. Turnout of votebanks continues to be a key factor in these battleground seats which also explains the BJP’s move to get Uma Bharathi to withdraw candidates ahead of this phase.

As usual take the predicitons with a pinch of salt, this election is getting exciting.

1 Seohara GEN – very high turnout, reliable BJP seat in the past, turned battleground last election with

2 Dhampur GEN – very high turnout, reliable BJP seat in the past, RLD cut into BJP vote base, RLD candidate since defected to BSP, this may go BSP this time 

3 Afzalgarh GEN – very high turnout, reliable BJP seat despite being a battleground seat with margins 3% or less, significant muslim vote consolidation in the past, tossup likely BJP 

4 Nagina SC – very high turnout, 3 way battleground seat, margins

5 Nazibabad SC – high turnouts, reliable CPM seat, incumbent CPM strongman missing in action, likely stay CPM 

6 Bijnor GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, muslim vote consolidation hurt it in the past, likely stay BJP if muslim vote splits 

7 Chandpur GEN – very high turnouts, interesting seat gone the RLD way last 2 elections, BSP runner up defected to BJP, may turn battleground if BSP vote is transferable else go RLD 

8 Kanth GEN – very high turnouts, vote bank consolidation, if BJP consolidates its vote bank should go BJP else stay BSP 

9 Amroha GEN – very high turnouts, battle of vote banks, high profile defections last election to other parties, tossup between SP and BJP 

10 Hasanpur GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, BJP gave seat to JD-U, may go independent 

11 Gangeshwari SC – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat in the past, former BJP strong man with RLD, likely stay SP 

12 Sambhal GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, likely stay SP unless muslim vote splits to favor BJP 

13 Bahjoi GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, consistently voted out incumbents, likely stay BSP unless muslim vote splits 

14 Chandausi SC – moderate to high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, turned battleground last election

15 Kunderki GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, stay SP unless muslim vote splits badly to favor BJP 

16 Moradabad West GEN – high to very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, consistently voted out incumbents, likely stay BSP 

17 Moradabad GEN – reliable BJP seat, very high to moderate turnouts, incumbent BJP strongman defected to SP, if muslim vote consolidates behind SP could be bad news for BJP 

18 Moradabad Rural GEN – very high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, unpredictable will depend on which way muslim vote consolidates 

19 Thakurdwara GEN – highest turnouts in UP, reliably BJP in the past, significant muslim vote consolidation in last election made it battleground with 1%, this is a true vote bank battleground seat, if muslim vote splits BJP should be comfortably home 

20 Suartanda GEN – very high turnouts, reliably BJP till muslim vote consolidation favored Cong last election, incumbent Cong man defected to SP, another vote bank battleground seat, could go SP if muslim vote bank consolidates 

21 Rampur GEN – high to moderate turnouts, muslim majority seat, likely stay SP unless Cong springs a surprise 

22 Bilaspur GEN – very high turnouts, consistently voted out incumbents, unpredictable 

23 Shahabad SC – high turnouts, interesting defections, incumbent SP to BJP, incumbent BJP to BSP, unpredictable 

24 Bisauli GEN – high turnouts, battle ground seat, likely stay SP 

25 Gunnaur GEN – Mulayam Singh Yadav’s seat go SP 

26 Sahaswan GEN – reliable yadav seat, mulayam has won here in the past, DP Yadav is contesting this time could end up being a tossup 

27 Bilsi SC – high turnout, reliable SP seat turned battleground last time with split in yadav vote, incumbent SP candidate has defected to BSP, could end up being a tossup again 

28 Budaun GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, cong has cut into BJP vote to aid SP/BSP, 4 way battleground in last election, incumbent BSP defected to SP, 

29 Usehat GEN – high turnouts, SP BSP battleground, has flipped flopped, former BSP strongman with JD-U, might stay SP 

30 Binawar GEN – very high turnouts. Reliable BJP seat, hurt by vote split last time around ceded ground to SP/BSP, BJP strongman went with Uma Bharathi, evidence of why BJP got Uma to withdraw ahead of 3rd phase, should go BJP this time 

31 Dataganj GEN – very high turnouts, 3 way battleground, vote shares in the 20s, margins

32 Aonla GEN – very high turnouts, reliable BJP seat, battleground last time, vote share

33 Sunha GEN – very high turnouts, 3 way battleground seat, BSP incumbent defected to SP, former BJP candidate defected to cong, this is a tossup 

34 Faridpur SC – high turnouts, 2 way battleground SP/BJP, incumbent BJP strongman defected to BSP, tossup likely go SP 

35 Bareilly Cant GEN – moderate turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, vote shares in the 20s, tossup 

36 Bareilly City GEN – low turnouts, reliable BJP seat, should stay BJP 

37 Nawabganj GEN – very high turnouts, Gangwar battleground, could stay SP unless a strong wave of anti-incumbency against Gangwar strongman 

38 Bhojipura GEN – very high turnouts, 3 way battleground, defection from BSP to INC, likely stay SP 

39 Kawar GEN – very high turnouts, 3 way battleground, defection from BSP to BJP, some muslim vote consolidation, tossup 

40 Baheri GEN – very high turnouts, 3 way battleground, muslim vote bank splintered last time, defection from BSP to SP, likely stay SP unless muslim vote splits badly 

41 Pilibhit GEN – high turnouts, muslim vote consolidation, reliable BJP seat until 2002, vote bank fragmentation will determine outcome, could go back to BJP 

42 Barkhera SC – high turnouts, has tended SP, will likely stay SP 

43 Bisalpur GEN – very high turnouts, has favored in the BJP past, battleground since last election, some muslim vote consolidation, tossup will go down to vote banks 

44 Puranpur GEN – very high turnouts, battleground seat, bounced around the political spectrum, likely stay BJP 

45 Powayan SC – high turnouts, favored congress, went independent last time who has since defected to SP, tossup 

46 Nigohi GEN – very high turnouts, favored BJP, battleground seat,

47 Tilhar GEN – high turnouts, reliably congress, battleground seat since last election, stay Congress 

48 Jalalabad GEN – high turnouts, strong SP seat in the past however SP strongman defected to Congress, might go Congress 

49 Dadraul GEN – very high turnouts, former congress stronghold, battleground since 2002 with vote shares in 20s and

50 Shahjahanpur GEN – high turnouts, BJP stronghold, stay BJP 

292 Kannauj SC – high turnout, favored BJP in the past, 3 way battleground with vote shares in 20s and

293 Umardha GEN – high turnouts, 3 way battleground seat, tossup 

294 Chhibramau GEN – high turnouts, favored BJP in the past, stay BJP 

295 Kamalganj GEN – very high turnouts, battleground of vote banks,

296 Farrukhabad GEN – moderate turnouts, reliably BJP but lost to independent last time who has since defected to SP, could swing back to BJP 

297 Kaimganj GEN – high turnouts, 3 way battleground, Salmaan Kursheed’s wife won last time with 3% margin, tossup likely congress 

298 Mohammdabad GEN – high turnouts has gone reliably SP last 2 elections, stay SP 

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