The Williams Institute has released a new analysis of same-sex couples data collected in the Census. It found that the number of same-sex couples increased 30 percent between 2000 and 2005, where the general population only increased 5 percent. Growth was most pronounced in the Midwest, and six of the eight states considering anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives this year had above-average growth.

Mother Jones’ blog has an interesting post on the matter. The magazine argues that anti-gay marriage initiatives actually “may be helping gays and lesbians out of the closet.” It would be rather odd for a 2006 ballot initiative to affect growth between 2000 and 2005, but let’s consider the idea anyway.

Indeed, the increases in these six states is remarkable, especially when you consider that 21 states — almost half the states in the country — had no measurable increase or even a decrease. Here are the numbers:

Arizona, 37 percent
Colorado, 58 percent
South Carolina, 39 percent
Tennessee, 33 percent
Virginia, 43 percent
Wisconsin, 81 percent

However, I would argue that the arrow of causation points in the opposite direction (and not just because the increase happened before the initiatives). As gay couples become more plentiful and noticeable, straights may become more aware they’re uncomfortable with the idea of granting homosexuals legal rights. As gays form advocacy groups and agitate for judicial activism, legislation to the contrary sounds more like a pressing concern.

Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.