This oughta be fun… The day after President Bush proposed a way for the Congress to get information about the firings of 8 US Attorneys General and made it clear that he would fight any attempt to compel his staff to testify under oath, a subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee voted to do just that, OK-ing subpoenas for Karl Rove and former White House Counsel Harriet Miers.

If the Senate does the same thing, which seems likely, the issue will likely end up in court, and quite possibly the Supreme Court.

If the issue gets to the DC Circuit Court of Appeals first, I would expect the Administration to win fairly easily. In the Supreme Court, I think it would be a close call, but I would expect the Administration to prevail by 5-4 or 6-3.

This is a dangerous game for all involved, politically speaking. It is hard to know at this time whether the public will be more angry at President Bush and his staff for refusing to comply with subpoenas or with the Democrats for causing a crisis over what seems to be a very small issue.

At the end, it will come down to whose spin machine is best. It’s hard to bet against the Democrats when it comes to spin, and Bush has been terrible at defending himself (especially on domestic issues). But Bush is like a wounded tiger who is now being pushed into a corner. I wouldn’t want to be the one facing that tiger. My guess is that the Democrats are so full of themselves at the moment that they will overplay this hand, but my confidence in the GOP is so low that I wouldn’t bet a lot. It could easily end up being a full 15 rounds with both sides coming out seriously bruised and bloodied, with a split decision that leaves the Democrats and the President all losers.

Be Sociable, Share!