Comments on: Figgerin’ the odds at Jesus’ tomb http://www.bloggernews.net/14908 High-quality English language analysis and editorial writing on the news. Sun, 07 Sep 2008 10:46:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.3 By: iamscifimike http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1652 iamscifimike Thu, 01 Mar 2007 14:30:26 +0000 http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1652 Once upon a time I met and became acquainted with a family of four with the same name configuration as mine. Father - James; Mother - Vicki; Son - Michael ; Daughter - Melissa. Using some data from the website http://www.namestatistics.com and by your calculations, the possibility of that family even existing for me to have met is 1 in 227,648,377 families. Of course that is assuming that all people get married and have at least two children. I agree that this doesn't make the Jesus; Mary; Joseph coincidence any more likely, but there is also the cultural tendency to pass names within a family that makes this occurence more likely. This is probably due to a lack of surnames in Hebrew culture. Furthermore, on the topic of surnames, the Jesus we are looking for is Jesus of Nazareth. It was Jesus son of Joseph that was discovered. As a student of mathematics I do very much appreciate your efforts in discovering the truth. Unfortunately the field of statistics is not valid for determining a truth of this magnitude. Thank You, Michael Once upon a time I met and became acquainted with a family of four with the same name configuration as mine. Father - James; Mother - Vicki; Son - Michael ; Daughter - Melissa. Using some data from the website http://www.namestatistics.com and by your calculations, the possibility of that family even existing for me to have met is 1 in 227,648,377 families. Of course that is assuming that all people get married and have at least two children.

I agree that this doesn’t make the Jesus; Mary; Joseph coincidence any more likely, but there is also the cultural tendency to pass names within a family that makes this occurence more likely. This is probably due to a lack of surnames in Hebrew culture. Furthermore, on the topic of surnames, the Jesus we are looking for is Jesus of Nazareth. It was Jesus son of Joseph that was discovered.

As a student of mathematics I do very much appreciate your efforts in discovering the truth. Unfortunately the field of statistics is not valid for determining a truth of this magnitude.

Thank You,
Michael

]]> By: BobFelton http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1650 BobFelton Wed, 28 Feb 2007 21:21:15 +0000 http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1650 I was careful to say that I was looking at the specific relationships proposed by Cameron, and that we don't know whether that is accurate. I was careful to say that I was looking at the specific relationships proposed by Cameron, and that we don’t know whether that is accurate.

]]> By: Chuck http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1648 Chuck Wed, 28 Feb 2007 18:38:36 +0000 http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1648 BobFelton's odds are wrong in many ways. The family relations between the bodies (except one) are not known, so the odds are not about whether a Jesus married a Mary, but whether in a group of ten bodies, you would find a Jesus and a Mary. Let's assume that half are male and half are female. In a group of ten bodies, the probability is 35% (1 - .917^5) that there will be a Jesus, and 67% (1 - .79^5) there is a Mary, giving a 28% chance there is both a Jesus and a Mary. Hundreds of these family tombs are known, so we would expect many dozens of them to have both a Jesus and a Mary. There are many names among the people around Jesus, so you would expect several of these names to randomly appear among the eight other bodies. BobFelton’s odds are wrong in many ways. The family relations between the bodies (except one) are not known, so the odds are not about whether a Jesus married a Mary, but whether in a group of ten bodies, you would find a Jesus and a Mary. Let’s assume that half are male and half are female. In a group of ten bodies, the probability is 35% (1 - .917^5) that there will be a Jesus, and 67% (1 - .79^5) there is a Mary, giving a 28% chance there is both a Jesus and a Mary. Hundreds of these family tombs are known, so we would expect many dozens of them to have both a Jesus and a Mary. There are many names among the people around Jesus, so you would expect several of these names to randomly appear among the eight other bodies.

]]> By: mbiernat http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1647 mbiernat Wed, 28 Feb 2007 16:36:16 +0000 http://www.bloggernews.net/14908#comment-1647 Careron's Odds are not correct because he based the numbers on one area at one point in time. The numbers should be expanded to the entire region and to a range of about 100 years as there is not exact date rather a range for these tombs. There are other problems with the odds but this is a main one. Do not include the pop. of the city at the time, but the population of the area total for 100 years. so if the pop is 50,000 it should based on more like 5,000,000. This makes the odds not significant. Then there are further issues. Its beyond me how somen people can not see such obvious flaws in his arugments. Careron’s Odds are not correct because he based the numbers on one area at one point in time. The numbers should be expanded to the entire region and to a range of about 100 years as there is not exact date rather a range for these tombs. There are other problems with the odds but this is a main one. Do not include the pop. of the city at the time, but the population of the area total for 100 years. so if the pop is 50,000 it should based on more like 5,000,000. This makes the odds not significant. Then there are further issues. Its beyond me how somen people can not see such obvious flaws in his arugments.

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