Mixed news: Democrats nationwide have opened a 23-point lead over Republicans in congressional elections.

The current lack of leadership has left a whole slate of conservative, libertarian and populist causes — war management, spending and immigration respectively, to name a few — that Democrats could exploit while retaining the rest of the typical liberal platform. This would sway not only moderates but many folks who traditionally vote Republican (even I’m on the record saying I’d love to vote for a Democrat). I haven’t been able to follow all the races in the country in depth, but so far as I can tell the Democratic Party in general hasn’t done that, save for a few Democrats who support the war (and even they don’t have much of a plan in terms of running it differently).

I think people are voting “not Republican” as much as “Democrat.” It seems that most of this anti-Republican sentiment is coming from the war in Iraq and, to a lesser degree, Foleygate. But this should at least send a message to Republicans to stand for something and handle themselves well when the 2008 presidential elections hit.

And if nothing else, a Democratic House and/or Senate would deadlock the government, reducing spending and making sure any steps abroad are surefooted.

Before we get all wound up, however, there are two reasons these polls may not accurately predict the election. The first is that, as the article notes, a whole lot of bad news has come out about Republicans lately. The intelligence estimate saying the Iraq war could increase terrorism, Bob Woodward’s book, Foley, etc. These things will have died down some by the elections, unless the media manages to keep them up.

Second, the survey only asked people, in essence, “Republican or Democrat?” without plugging in specific names. Back in the 2004 elections, I remember commentators pointing out that “George Bush or a Democrat?” brought out “Democrat” a lot, though once you put in any candidate the number dropped. Anyone can make up a Super Democrat.

This situation isn’t exactly analogous, party vs. party instead of person vs. party, but I think asking about the two organizations may evoke the anti-Republican sentiment even conservatives feel — without making people think about the individual sets of issues, personalities and notions that campaigns bring out.

Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.