Today is the counting day in the Karnataka assembly elections. The TV media has made this an important media event and discussions have opened in all TV channels with discussions starting from the pre counting poll results.

The starting point is based on the current assembly where BJP held a thin majority closely followed by Congress with JDS being a distant third.  This year KJP has come into the fray along with BSR Congress (BRR-C) both of which are expected to win around 7-10 seats each. In other words they together represent the position which JDS occupied last time winning 28 seats.

JDS during this election has emerged as a strong regional party as well as a party with the strong base in Vokkaliga voter base. It is therefore expected to make a significant advance in seats from 28 to at least 45.

In the prevailing state of confusion, independents are also likely to show a marginal gain and may reach around 10.

The pollsters have not accounted for these changes.

We may therefore have to wait for early lead situation to clarify how things start developing during the day.

Early indication suggest leads for Congress in 28 seats where others are leading in around 20 seats.  These appear to be coming out of the postal ballots and may change quickly.

Vijayashankar

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