According to this story, Missouri lawmakers are contending abortion has led to illegal immigration. There is really no reason for a state legislature to even contemplate this — immigration is a federal issue, as is, unfortunately, Roe v Wade — but they’re almost certainly right to a degree.

Slate has a critical post here.

First of all, the very basic logic is sound. Abortions decrease population, and they disproportionately occur in poorer women more likely to birth future low-income employees. Fewer natives with this tendency means a higher demand for immigrant workers.

The calculation of 80,000 fewer Missourians as a result of abortion also seems pretty reasonable. It’s not simply the number of abortions, as there have been nearly 50 million nationwide, and about 2 percent of Americans (5.8 million) live in Missouri. From that, one would guess there’ve been around a million abortions in Missouri, give or take substantially, of course.

What I think they took into account is the fact that Roe v. Wade increased conceptions to such a degree it barely decreased births. After the decision, births fell 6 percent, but conceptions rose 30 percent. This means that a large number, almost certainly a majority, of abortions ended pregnancies that would not have started if not for Roe. The effect on illegal immigration is in the 6 percent, not the total number of abortions.

Like I said, 80,000 sounds feasible — that’s just a little more than 1 percent of Missouri’s total population (much of which was born before Roe, which is why it’s not nearer 6 percent). Also, these folks would be young and often working age right now, so the importance of those 80,000 is disproportionate in terms of labor.

Compare this to the Federation for American Immigration Reform’s preferred estimate of 22,000 illegal immigrants in Missouri. Using this alone, abortion would more than explain the worker shortage that leads to illegal immigration in Missouri.

The thing that gives me pause here is that the total foreign born is 194,000, and the total Hispanic population is more than 118,000 — the difference due to legal immigrants, children of illegals who automatically get citizenship, etc. These people more than fill the void left by abortion, so on net I would tend to think the effect of abortion has been pretty limited in terms of immigration.

Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.