Shortly before the elections I took a look at Rove’s prediction that the GOP would hold both houses of Congress. I argued it was at least possible that even Rove didn’t believe the numbers — he was trying to create the impression of a winnable battle. This would bouy the spirits of Republican activists and hurry along the bandwagon effect.
The bandwagon effect theory holds that people are more likely to vote for candidates they think will win. This is pretty illogical, as votes are more needed by those who aren’t winning, but some evidence shows that exit polling data tends to reinforce itself as election day wears on. If polls show someone is ahead, more people turn out to vote for that candidate.
Newsweek has a story that pretty strongly disagrees with my assessment, pretty much resting on the assumption that Rove’s calculations were honest and firmly believed. Indeed, it does seem his math was complex and detailed.
However, it shows one of the effects Rove could have been looking for in overstating his case:
“His confidence buoyed everyone inside the West Wing, especially the president.”
Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.
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