How should India respond to the horrendous terrorist attacks in Mumbai? Given the rightly outraged Indian public’s demands for retaliation, doing nothing does not appear a viable option. And failing to retaliate will simply invite new attacks.
But the alternative of a major military confrontation with Pakistan along the shared border has little to recommend it. The hands of the civilian Government of Pakistan seem pretty clean in this case. No shred of evidence has yet emerged that would connect the terrorists with it. True, decades of support for terrorist groups prepared the ground for the attacks, but the current Pakistani Government has been far more cooperative with India than those of the past. Mobilizing its forces on the Pakistani border will yield no benefit to India and could lead to a mutually devastating nuclear war. Besides, both countries’ economies are reeling from the global financial crisis. An armed confrontation of this sort would make things worse by signaling capital to flee the region.
India could, however, adopt another approach that would constitute a highly appropriate form of retaliation. We can call this strategy “Going to the Source”.
Going to the Source
Who was behind the terrorist attacks on Mumbai? Not the unknown Deccan Mujahideen who claimed responsibility. That was clearly intended to mislead. All the evidence thus far points to two culprits: the Kashmir irredentist Lashkar-e-Taiba and al Qaeda. And the most likely motive by a wide margin would be to provoke an Indo-Pakistani confrontation that would lead Pakistan to pull back its troops from their offensive against the terrorist facilities in Bajaur Agency along the Pakistani-Afghan border.
While the attackers themselves might have been mainly or solely from Lashkar-e-Taiba, their focus on killing Americans, British, and Jews bears the insignia of al Qaeda. Al Qaeda might also have provided funding and what appears to have been sophisticated planning.
One possible inference: al Qaeda feels itself seriously threatened by the assault by the Pakistani army on its facilities in Bajaur Agency. Indeed, al Qaeda may be in a more desperate situation than appears on the surface. Lashkar-e-Taiba has increasingly used this area as a base and training ground, and for a long time it has been intimately connected with al Qaeda.
So the last thing India should wish is to lessen Pakistani army pressure in Bajaur. Indeed, it can go much farther.
A Modest Proposal
Pakistanis have long feared encirclement by India. Every hint of Indian presence in Afghanistan is taken as encircling. For its part, India has downplayed its role in Afghanistan in order not to provoke the Pakistanis.
But now the chemistry has changed. India has a palpable need to retaliate for the Mumbai attacks. So how better than Going to the Source?
With the permission of the Government of Afghanistan, which has reasons to cultivate a good relationship with India and to reduce the threat of terrorism, India could elect to respond to the Mumbai terrorism by sending an expeditionary force of 20,000 Indian troops to Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan, opposite the Bajaur Agency.
India could speak very plainly about its intention to use these troops to clean out the al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists. It could emphasize that it acknowledges that the Government of Pakistan was not complicit in the Mumbai attacks, that it wishes to cooperate with Pakistan against common enemies, and that it does not covet a single inch of Pakistan’s territory. It could rightly say that it seeks only to motivate the Pakistanis to do the job on the terrorists themselves. If they don’t, India would have the option of launching a cross-border attack, perhaps with stand-off U.S. air support.
How likely is it that Pakistan would not respond by dramatically intensifying its assault on the terrorists in Bajaur? Not very. The Indians could promise that, once the terrorists are finished off, whether by the Pakistan army or by the Indian expeditionary force, they would withdraw every last Indian soldier from Bajaur and Afghanistan.
This approach would convey many benefits. India and Pakistan would avoid a scary, costly confrontation on their mutual border. India would successfully retaliate for the Mumbai attacks. Afghanistan would be rid of a major source of terrorist activity. The U.S. could withdraw from Afghanistan. And the Government of Pakistan would deal successfully with the mortal threat the terrorists pose to its hold on power–or the Indians would do it the favor.
Of course, some terrorists would likely escape, and there are plenty of others. However, al Qaeda and Lashkar-e-Taiba would suffer a major defeat.
Kenneth J. Dillon
Loading ...
7 users commented in " India, Pakistan, and Terrorism: A Modest Proposal "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackIt’s a really stupid idea. First of all, the terrorists of LET JEM etc. were directly trained and financed by ISI in pakistan, and as per the captured terrorist, even pakistani Navy was involved. The entire operation was planned by ISI and armed forces directorate. However, the civilian govt. as usual was never in the loop. This is why the DG ISI does not have the deniability and didnt want to come to India.
Please do some research before picking up the pen or keyboard.
The idea that you promote as usual as a lackey of western countries, to do their dirty jobs for them. FATA is a mess created by Pakistan and I am not prepared to see any Indian blood spilt there. Instead, we’ll do what we know matters, that is clean up the terror infrastructure in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. Bomb them to oblivion thats the only response thats worth it’s salt.
-A
We understand from a news report that an AlQaeda leader in Pakistan has said that they will shortly take over Pakistan.
Is it an empty threat? or is it real?
This has always been the nightmare situation where the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan falls into the hands of Taliban.
I do accept the possibility that the current Pak Govt may not have control over either the ISI or the Pak Army. This makes the situation more dangerous.
Interesting idea: it definitely serves the purposes of the US. But how do you propose for 20,000 Indian forces to be transported to Afghanistan? There is a long circuitous route through Russia/CIS states, but logistics are a concern. It is one thing to fly in a planeload of engineers; but to deploy an entire division across such hostile terrain is another matter.
A few comments:
1. Reasonable people can have differing views about such a tangled problem. It’s important to nurture new ideas that could, perhaps after reworking, provide a much-needed solution.
2. I have inserted “civilian” before “Government of Pakistan” to make clear the distinction between presumably innocent civilians and complicit elements in the armed forces.
3. Clearly, this idea serves the U.S. interest; but it also serves the real interests of India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. One can easily portray it as the U.S. using Indians as Gurkhas to do its dirty work. But in fact the Indians would freely decide to make this move because it suits their own purposes. And they might receive critical support from U.S. forces in terms of logistics, intelligence, and stand-off air power.
4. Perhaps the Indian troops would fly in a roundabout way, and ISAF or the U.S. would provide whatever heavy equipment they need.
5. It is not clear that Indians have grasped that they have, in all likelihood, been attacked by al Qaeda as well as by LeT. Bajaur is the best place to take on both at once. Responding along the Indo-Pakistan border would let al Qaeda escape unscathed. It would also much more likely lead to retaliation and possibly escalate into a devastating conventional or nuclear war.
Pakistan is not an ally of the US ,they just provide a base for US troops in exchange of grants form US with which they help the Al-Qaeda and also the LeT.All US is doing is increasing the arsenal of Pakistan ISI which itself has been involved in terrorist activities in India and Afghanistan.Because of these grants the activities of Taliban in Afghanistan(70% Taliban rule)and the LeT in Kashmir(India)has increased..significantly and they don’t stick to just Afghanistan.
NATO troops regularly report being fired upon by the Al Queda with pakistan army’s help , they recently torched 170 Humvee s and harbor notorious terrorists who are threats to US and India…btw the guy who killed Daniel Pearl will soon be released by the Pakistan Court
Pakistan harbors terrorists and therefore tacitly supports Islamic terrorism. They should be regarded in the same way as Iran, Iraq, Syria, Sudan and other untrustworthy countries. Their leaders listen to the requests of US government only because of financial aid. This is similar to our paying tribute to Islamic terrorist states in the nineteenth century.
The more grant flows there the more trouble they will be in the future ..they also have nukes and the Parliament,Judiciary and Army are all run independently .
(bombing of US and Indian embassy in Kabul) http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=11350&gclid=CKK46b2dtJcCFQ_yDAodd3GLuQ
Pakistan is very strong country in Asia indian don’t know about situation Indian govt taking unresponsible experian Pakistan army is most powerfull than indian and public of pakistan also gather with army at all situation created every person is prepare for fight to get shahadat her and we will succes surely any how because God is with us Indian govt mistake will lost there country forever == riazhb.bhutto@gmail.com
India, the world nation of largest democracy is now under threat as it’s completely isolated after Mumbai attack on fighting against terror. Pakistan has become successful in getting US & UK intervene and evade a probable war or conflict to the extent that the UK foreign Secretary as US-UK spokesperson was forced to give the statement on Indian soil rejecting outright the Indian longstanding claim of Pakistan’s link with Mumbai attack. Every Indian should be ashamed of being surrendered to the International pressure of taking any action against Pakistan, the most favored state of US/UK on war against terror in Afghanistan. They hardly bother about the killing of poor Indians by so called Pakistan sponsored Jihadis. No one should forget that Massod was made free from Indian prison in lieu of hostages including a foreign VVIP in the hijacked plane from India to Kandahar under International pressure. The than Indian Govt. was greatly embarrassed by the opposition. But to-day the Govt. under the great Italian Lady manifests loyalty to the western pressure forgetting millions of aggrieved Indians desperately looking for the Govt.’s strong exemplary action in getting the perpetrators of Mumbai attack to justice. Being extremely weak in intelligence and defense preparedness on terror, India will remain a soft target of Al-Quida backed Islamic jihadis in many names, groups and outfits. Indian Govt. seems complacent about developing International consensus against Pakistan. It’s well known to US/UK/UN and all world nations that how the UN banned organizations are functioning actively in Pakistan. Can US/UK stop Israeli attack on Hamam? The world is divided on war against terror. It’s now for survival for the fittest. If India has no courage to opt for a surgical air strike, it must isolate Pakistan unilaterally and not allowing US/UK to intervene the least. India must change her foreign policy with US and EU. The Govt. has miserably failed to stop yet the cross boarder terrorism. Unfortunately with the present act of Govt. every Indian must be prepared to be victimized in future by the same perpetrators of Mumbai attack. By now India must be cautious on the International politics moving around Kashmir as the fulcrum between Indo-Pak mega conflicts in next few years.
Leave A Reply