In analyzing the Virginia election — still too close to call, though Democrat Webb is coming out ahead in the first count — people often stressed the state’s regional tensions. DC suburban Virginia is more liberal than the North Carolina-bordering southern part.
On MSNBC yesterday, announcers made a big deal that a then-uncounted precinct was in Fairfax County (DC suburban; I live there). And this USA Today article says: “Allen piled up big voting margins in conservative, rural counties across Virginia, but as election night wore on, the incumbent’s support throughout the countryside was offset by Webb’s strong showing in urban areas.”
There is something to this notion, but the differences aren’t nearly as severe as I had been expecting given the hype. The Northeast may run headlong into the South in Virginia, but here are CNN’s results by region of the state:
Northern Virginia: 40 percent Allen
Southeastern Virginia: 47 percent Allen
Richmond/Eastern Virginia: 55 percent Allen
Shenandoah/Western Virginia: 57 percent Allen
These numbers are fairly typical for states with urban/rural divides, even when they don’t bridge regions. Wisconsin, for example, varied in support for Kohl (D) from 50 percent (southern area of the state) to 68 (Milwaukee area) percent. New York saw an even worse divide, with the city going 82 percent for Hillary Clinton; upstate only 57 percent.
The numbers seem to suggest that the difference between rural and urban people is more important than that between Northern and Southern folks.
Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.
















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