Now that just about every attack on Palin has been thumpingly rebutted by well-regarded neutrals, about the only thing left hanging over her head is Troopergate. Unfortunately for Democrats, nobody cares about Troopergate. At worst, she will be seen as bending but not breaking rules in order to get rid of someone who was protecting a wife-beating child-tasering nightmare of a cop. She was entitled to fire the guy because she didn’t like his shifty eyes; that she has any reason at all (even personal reasons) will just make it more OK with the electorate. The library thing had more potential resonance - is she a scary book-burning fundie? - and that, too, is down the drain.
More the the point, at this date she can pretty much come out and refer to Hymietown, slap a wounded returning soldier for cowardice, and take a million-dollar check from Exxon at high noon in Times Square with “bribe” written in the memo field in 100-point type, and nobody will believe it. The shotgun salvo of slime that was fired at her from day one, and which across the board has been resoundingly disproved and rebutted, in some cases humiliatingly for the media “leaders” who drank too much Kool-Aid, made it clear to the electorate that there are big chunks of the media (from blogs to glossies) who will say and do anything to smear her, out of fear that she will derail the crowning of the Chosen One. “Yeah, yeah, what other lies are you going to print today” is now the default reaction to negative Palin news, and I don’t see that changing in time to effect the election.
Here’s my call for the elections.
Obama’s convention bounce was about two points, and it dissipated as those bounces do. There was no bounce from the Republican convention, because the convention (Palin’s speech aside) was a near-disaster. (I’ve never heard more boring Republican speeches in my life, and I’ve heard a lot of boring Republican speeches.) Instead, the post-Palin shift in the polling is structural; it’s a big chunk of purple America deciding that they (a) love her and (b) hate the people who have been smearing her grotesquely from the moment she came onto the national stage, who (rightly or wrongly) are tightly bound up with Obama and his friendly media in the public view. McCain has shifted the race by as much as ten percentage points, permanently, and will go down in history as making the most electorally significant VP pick ever. (And so much for the conventional wisdom that VP picks change nothing.)
The Wilder effect is very likely operative in this election, and is probably worth about four or five points. (Voters are reluctant to tell pollsters they aren’t going to vote for a black candidate, so they lie.) On paper, McCain has been a few points behind for months; in reality, McCain has been a little bit behind or a little bit ahead all through the general season, and is now solidly ahead by at least a few points. He will win in the EC comfortably but not overwhelmingly, and will somewhat blunt the Democratic gains in the Congress.
The “why” of all this is simple. Palin is an outstanding VP candidate, and has won real votes from millions of people who previously leaned Obama or didn’t know who to vote for. In addition, enthusiasm for her has revitalized a GOP establishment which was unenthusiastic at best. On the flip side, Obama is an unqualified candidate, and everyone not enthusiastically waving banners for him knows it. He captured the nomination by winning the hearts of the party’s activist base, but cannot win in the general election. Hillary knew this and she and Bill were both crucified for daring to even allude to it; after Obama’s defeat destroys the hope of a unified Democratic administration and Congress, there will be a great deal of bitter recrimination and a lot more infighting as the finger of blame gets passed around.
Many hard-left news sources (such as the spectacularly unconvincing “Sambo” article that’s been circling the drain for a few days) will froth in denial of these new facts on the ground for the next couple of months, but they will convince noone but themselves; there will be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth on November 5. (”How could this happen when everything I read says that it wouldn’t?”)
You have to love the Democrats; they basically have every advantage they could have short of God himself descending from the Throne and announcing “Vote Democrat, all my children!”, and they’ve thrown it away. No Presidency, and what should have been veto-proof majorities in both houses will instead be just another slight pro-Dem shift. (If the Obama campaign completely implodes as their defeat looms, it might even be a neutral race in terms of Congressional outcomes, as dispirited Democratic voters don’t bother to turn out for the down-ticket races, but I don’t think they’ll completely implode.)
So, it’ll be McCain but not by a landslide, and a range of Congressional outcomes somewhere between modest Democratic gains in both houses to no major shift in either house, depending on how well the Obama campaign handles its slow-motion defeat.
You can apply a wishful-thinking discount to this if you want - I won’t pretend that this isn’t an outcome I don’t want to see. However, I’m already applying a wishful-thinking discount internally, and secretly expect a McCain blowout and no big losses in Congress for the GOP, despite our richly deserving them.
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12 users commented in " Early Election Projection: My Call on the 2008 Race "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackBob–I have to reluctantly agree with your conclusions. I support Obama, I think Palin is a dumpster full of bad news waiting to be disclosed, and an autocratic prima donna. But the media, and the left, made a huge mistake attacking her because of her daughter (my God, I thought we’d never hear the end of it, and who’s business was it anyway?) instead of vetting her accurately themselves. Now the electorate has been innoculated against the really bad news by being fed small, digestible doses of the poison already dished out. The left blew it.
A little off the subject–I keep hearing people say they are worried about whether Palin could stand up to Putin. If I were a Russian, I would be concerned about whether a weaker-than-Palin autocrat like Vlad Pute would be able to stand up to her. She could eat him like a mooseburger, one on one. So who knows? Maybe a Palin presidency wouldn’t be such a bad thing. Putin, long range, is a much bigger threat than that bearded nitwit hiding out in the mountains.
The media have to be incredibly stupid. While working overtime to elect Obama by destroying Palin, they have fueled outrage among voters who recognize Palin as the most “one of us” candidates ever put on the ballot by either party. As a result, attacks on Palin are viewed as attacks on…us!
“Us” include:
1. Women who are juggling careers and family;
2. Both women and men who have succeeded–or are struggling to succeed–without help from powerful family or influential connections;
3. Parents who head families with special needs children and/or teenagers who sometimes disappoint;
4. Residents in (gasp! whisper!) small towns.
5. Hunters and fishermen;
6. People with faith who actually live their faith–or admire those that do;
7. Drill here, drill now proponents;
8. Industrial union members. The first dude’s membership in the Ironworker’s Union and his experience in the Alaska North Slopes oil fields will carry a lot more clout than Biden’s “working class roots.”
9. Those of us who have fought the system and know how rare Palin is because she won some of the battles.
The ticket won’t carry everyone that fits under Palin’s “us” umbrella, but it will draw a significant number of voters, particularly in the midwest battleground states.
It is totally unreal to me how republicans can talk about smear and lies. Please look at what has been produced by your party.
Obama has been lied about on every level.
This election is about the real future of this country.THIS MATTERS!!!!
Are people going to vote republican so they can temporarily win at their ego game?
Or make the right choice to heal this wounded country?
Think about it. Look at the facts. There is so much at stake.
You aren’t very well in-the-know, if you think everything against Palin has been rebutted. Perhaps in your own mind, but there are many, many people who aren’t fooled.
McCain “now solidly ahead by a few points”. My word - is this an oxymoron & not a true fact. Those polls he leads are not outside the margin of error. If you are pretending to be a writer then write “FACTS” vs “GARBAGE”>
[…] blowouts close races, and push many close races to the Republican side. (This reporter opined off-the-cuff that the Palin nomination had moved the election by ten points - nice to see one’s guesswork […]
This analysis of yours is most certainly a cynical one. I personally have no doubt that a multitude of americans will be fooled into backing McCain on account of their ability to identify with Palin. There are just too many americans out there who sqander their vote away. They live in their own little mental cubicles and cant see past their own limited exposure to the facts. The facts are that if McCain/Palin are elected, then this country will be shunned internationally like never before. Any chance at foreign relations will be shot down by the international community’s further disgust with american elections. But that is not all folks. We haven’t even begun to see how angry the “angry left” can be. The GOP is good at one thing….winning elections by playing to the lowest common denominator. It works all too well, and it undermines progress and prosperity for our crippled country. But that isnt going to happen. There are enough americans who are tired of being lied to, and fed up with the status quo to go unanswered. The polls are a device for measuring elections of the past. Not the present. They become more and more increasingly unreliable. Proof in this is in the primaries. We will not be able to accurately judge the outcome of this election until after it is over. There are way too many factors besides Sarah Frigg’in Palin to consider. Such as the pressing issues so far unaddressed by the McCain camp. You may speculate all you want the outcome of this election. But people are not going to tolerate 4 more years of anything remotely resembling Bush policy.
You stupid republicans wake the fuck up you destroyed a nation in 8 years and im sick of it
Hey, Hayes:
You are a dumbass. Democrats and Obama will kick your GOP’s ass because it’s the economy, stupid.
So … nice prediction there, as Obama now leads in every poll.
Unreal! The facts are irrevlevant? You may have an IQ lower than Palin (if that is possible), yet unfortuantelly so do many, many poeple in the country. I suggest an IQ check before letting people cast their votes. God save us from Palin getting close to office.
McCain has already won this. It’s in the bag.
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