According to this transcription of an interview with Karl Rove, the strategist thinks the Republicans will keep both houses of Congress. What popped into my mind was: Is this an honest prediction, or a shrewd political move?

It’s not outlandish as an honest opinion, as most people seem to say the Republicans will keep the Senate and the House is up for grabs. A little wishful thinking wouldn’t be odd for someone with such a conflict of interest, and he did admit it would be a close, tough battle.

But Rove  being as calculating as he is, I wonder if this is an attempt to stir up the “bandwagon effect.” This is the theory — with some if not complete empirical documentation — that people like to vote for winners. The evidence for this is that exit polls allegedly increase turnout for winning candidates, even though they show losing candidates are the ones who need support.

In other words, by creating the sense that the Republicans will win Rove is increasing the likelihood that they really will. It’s a bit of a Rube Goldberg idea, yes, but at this point I think we have to assume that all words from political figures’ mouths are calculated to help candidates.

Robert VerBruggen blogs at http://robertsrationale.blogspot.com.

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