I’ve heard it all now. While reading a popular marketing blog that I frequently read, the subject turned to politics. One person decided to name 13 reasons Obama won’t win the upcoming election. All of them were based on illogical thought processes that leaves me wondering just where people get their ideas from. Refutations aren’t even necessary as some of these are just plain silly, but here they are and my responses:

1) Obama is not black enough for black voters. Also, many African Americans don’t vote, so he’ll miss this vote even if they prefer him over McCain.

Seriously, do you think that the 11% of African-Americans in our society are so dense and stupid that they will refuse to vote, or worse, vote for a rich white guy because the Democratic candidate isn’t “black enough?” Most African-Americans are Democrats and they will not vote for a rich, white Republican. This is so out of touch with reality that I can’t imagine anyone even thinking it. It is highly likely that more black people will vote in this election than in any previous one. Duh!

2) Obama is not white, or white enough for most white voters. Most (not all) white men will feel uncomfortable voting for someone who is not of their race.

Actually, most white men are ideological and those who are conservative-leaning would sooner vote for a black conservative (if they could find one they like) than a white liberal who will raise their taxes. White liberal male voters will still vote for the candidate who is most liberal and most representative of their world view despite his skin color. Economics has a lot more influence on most voters than race.

3) H. Clinton supports will most likely do one of two things: a) vote for McCain, or b) not vote at all. There goes those people. The democratic party has severe problems uniting–they tend to bicker back and forth. On the other hand, the republican party, for the most part, is united and decisive.

It’s possible that some Hillary Clinton supporters will vote for McCain. It’s also possible than some will not vote at all. But 18 million people? Come on! There is no way that 18 million committed Democrats are going to vote for McCain or stay away from the polls altogether. The vast majority of Hillary’s supporters are likely Yellow Dog Democrats. They’ll vote for Obama.

4) The vast majority of right wing Christians and evangelicals will not vote for Obama, most likely based on three items: a) he continues to support and uphold the Roe vs. Wade decision, and doesn’t believe that abortion should be banned completely, b) he has Muslim roots, whether he has ever researched or practiced any Islamism or not, and c) he was a bonefied member under a radical black preacher.

Too general a statement to back up. Research shows that younger evangelicals care less about single-issue voting (even if it’s Roe v. Wade) than about the big picture. The last guy they supported started an unjust war. That’s as bad as Roe v. Wade and they are angry at Bush and the Republicans for doing it. I think this election will see a huge evangelical split like never before.

5) Obama is considered inexperienced without a doubt. And although a country is run by several individuals, cabinet members, advisors, etc., these influences and factors will not be considered when determining whether he is suitable to run a country by the people who are ACTUALLY voting.

True, most voters care about experience, but at the end of the day what they really care about is what they expect their leaders to do. Obama has other characteristics that are hitting a nerve with many voters. Experience is over rated.

6) Most people do not like change, even if it may be for the better. When things are the same people feel they can predict outcomes and know what to expect. What’s another four or eight years of rolling with the status quo? Most people will not want change because there is no guarantee that things will be better.

Ludicrous. Many elections are based on change. Nixon was elected based on promises of change. Carter was elected because he said he’d never lie (and he kept his promise). Reagan was elected because voters saw Carter as too weak. Clinton was elected based on change. Bush the warmonger was elected based on change. Obama will win based on change. It’s the single most motivating factor in winning elections.

7) Now, this is a strange reason not to vote for Obama, but I’ve heard it from more than one person. There is a fear that Obama will be assassinated and that will cause great upheaval for the country, worse than anything of which Bush could have ever been accused.

This one just makes me laugh. You’re telling me that millions of Americans will vote for John McCain because they don’t want the black guy to be assassinated? Uhhm, what about racism again?

8) The overwhelmingly majority of those who have great wealth will definitely not vote for Obama because he has plans to tax them heavily. These people with wealth can often be very influential and will encourage those connected with them not to vote for him.

According to this logic, no Democrat would ever win. But there are many wealthy Democrats and some of them actually believe that higher taxes are a necessary component to good government.

9) The U.S. is generally a country that is very concerned about appearances and materialism. Obama has an uncommon name that doesn’t sit well with most people. Obama doesn’t look like the average American to many Americans. A person who doesn’t consistenly wear a flag on their lapel and is in a government position cannot truly represent nationalistic pride according to thousands of Americans. Also, there is question and doubt if Obama was even born on American soil.

Very general statement. Because Obama has an “uncommon” name, the millions of U.S. citizens living in a materialistic culture will vote for the rich white guy? Weird; just plain weird logic.

10) People will not vote for Obama because to the vast majority of Americans there is little worth in education beyond high school and/or at most a bachelors degree. Obama is over-educated for most individuals to really appreciate. Just mentioning his Harvard education leaves many people with the impression that he is a condescending snob.

This one is the funniest joke of all. Some of the best presidents, or at least the most beloved, were educated men. Woodrow Wilson is the most educated president in history and he is well loved by historians and the general population today. Abraham Lincoln had a law degree. John F. Kennedy had a law degree. Nixon had a law degree. Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar with a law degree. And voters won’t vote for Obama because he is Harvard educated? George W. Bush went to Yale. Silly. Just plain silly.

11) The votes that Obama may be hoping to get through minority groups won’t come through. Most ‘blue collar’ workers could care less about the internet. Many poor people have no access to the internet (except through public libraries) and have little interest in looking up anything in regard to the presidential election as they try to scrape by to survive. Obama supporters are connected through the Internet giving a false impression that there is such strength out there. Many of these Internetters may complain and write excellent articles, but when it comes time to push the button, oops, they are recovering from their hangover or “whatever dude”. What Americans see are ads from McCain that appeal to emotions, and emotions cut quicker than any rational appeal to the head for many individuals.

Classism. Poor people don’t care about the Internet? Hmmm. Even if that were true, what does it have to do with the election? Obama is also running TV ads. Poor people watch TV, don’t they? The nuttiness continues.

12) And how about all the gun owners out there? Most will certainly not a cast a vote for Obama. This country is guns galore, are you kidding me?

So gun owners won’t vote for a Harvard-educated black man with Islamist roots? Because millions of people own guns, no one will vote for Obama? OK, maybe there will be some blue-collar, gun-toting white guys run to the polls on election day to cast a vote for John McCain. Many Democrats own guns and hunt deer. They’ll vote for Obama.

13) And the last reason that thousands, millions of people will not vote for Obama is that he has no personal military experience. The majority of the men and women love their careers in the military and will feel threatened if their jobs may be cut. Thousands of military soldiers are proud to serve in the armed forces and want to sacrifice their life or health if need be to save the country for which they have great pride. Obama can’t represent these people.

Really? So Americans only want military leaders? Let’s see, how many past presidents can we count with no military experience (source)? John Adams. Thomas Jefferson. John Quincy Adams. Martin Van Buren. Grover Cleveland. William Howard Taft. Woodrow Wilson. Warren Harding. Calvin Coolidge. Herbert Hoover. Franklin D. Roosevelt. Bill Clinton. And Barack Obama.

People should not predict election outcomes based on their hopes and dreams. I don’t care who wins the election as long as it’s not John McCain. But these points I’ve made are not based on my hopes. They’re based on reality. People aren’t going to stay home on election day because Obama is an over-educated black guy with a Muslim father. This will be one of the most important elections in recent history. More important than the last two elections. Maybe McCain will win. If so, it will be because he took the electoral college, not because Americans vote like eighth graders.

Allen Taylor writes the News and Media Blog at http://newsandmediablog.com.

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