Excellent analysis. You touch on the fundamental principle at play here. The wisdom of prevention (stopping a problem before it requires a D-DAY scale solution) and the folly of failing to do so were discussed in a recent interview with brilliant Churchill biographer Sir Martin Gilbert. Our commentary on the interview and issue of Appeasement versus Prevention, entitled “The Weakest Possible Postion” can be found at http://churchillsparrot.blogspot.com/2008/03/weakest-possible-position.html .

Cheers,

Charlie

-What is the likelihood that the various Sunni factions will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that the various Shiite factions will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that the Sunni and Shiite will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that the various Iraqi Shiite factions will kiss and make up with the various Iranian Shiite factions?

-What is the likelihood that the Sunni & Kurds will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that the Shiites & Kurds will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that the Kurds and the Turks will kiss and make up?

-What is the likelihood that Iran and Saudi Arabia will kiss and make up?

The likelihood of all the above kissing and making up simultaneously; Well you (all you naïve liberals) figure the odds!!

If any one of the above doesn’t come true, then the ‘whole area’ will probably spiral into chaos.

If the whole area spirals into chaos, then what of the oil from the Persian gulf?? Shipments of oil to all parts of the world could dry up, or at least be substantially curtailed. Lets forget about the oil coming to the US for the moment, and just talk about the oil that goes to various ‘other’ nations. Even if the US made up all its losses by buying from other sources (so you can’t accuse me of only being concerned about US oil supplies) then what about the oil to the rest of the world. The lack of oil to those other countries would probably cause their economies to collapse. That could cause a world economic collapse, since we all buy and depend each others products, and sales of our own products.

This would probably mean the UN would have to send troops back in to stabilize the area (not to mention to prevent genocide). This would probably be an invasion similar to D-Day where we would have to fight our way ashore (as opposed to already being there). You can probably bet that would cost a lot more than 4000 lives. By staying in Iraq we may well be saving 40,000 lives just a few years (or months) down the road.

If you Democrats think the above is not likely: Please explain why. Please explain how you could make all the above happen simultaneously and maintain it.

I will also add, that all the above problems were there before we invaded.